Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand

[jlauderdal]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Love love me dews
you know I love dews

Floridews on that map, swampy today

[Damage In Tolland]

54 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Love love me dews
you know I love dews

There’s only a precious few , that don’t love dews 

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should bust out later this morning.

Tomrrow could feature sct storms that could be potent. Not a lot of shear but high dews and decent CAPE.

Congrats WNE again. Everything shows then dying river East 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats WNE again. Everything shows then dying river East 

I think areas east too. Some models show stuff on south coast seabreeze. There’s good instability SoP.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think areas east too. Some models show stuff on south coast seabreeze. There’s good instability SoP.

Same two locations. S coast and WNE. Maybe I’ll hear some distant banging 

[Torch Tiger]

Expecting a few more shortwaves to move through the upper-level flow
as well as a trailing cold front early next week, bringing
additional chances for showers to southern New England Monday night
into Tuesday. The FROPA could bring a small amount of relief from
the heat for the start of the next work week, but humidity levels
likely will remain elevated through mid-week.

remember they said big cool down coming next week 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Expecting a few more shortwaves to move through the upper-level flow
as well as a trailing cold front early next week, bringing
additional chances for showers to southern New England Monday night
into Tuesday. The FROPA could bring a small amount of relief from
the heat for the start of the next work week, but humidity levels
likely will remain elevated through mid-week.

remember they said big cool down coming next week 

Middle to end of next week then its time for you folks to turn the page 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Middle to end of next week then its time for you folks to turn the page 

Ok so when it's February 12th we're turning the page, moving on  

[Torch Tiger]

silliness 

[dendrite]

May have to turn the page on 1/12 this winter

[BombsAway1288]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May have to turn the page on 1/12 this winter

I think everyone’s excepted that this winter is lost and will likely be very mild. That will probably make it more enjoyable, the few small snow events we get 

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Ok so when it's February 12th we're turning the page, moving on  

Usually you can by then.. sun gets higher cars feel warmer getting in them.. 

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May have to turn the page on 1/12 this winter

 

[Layman]

14 hours ago, JACKASS said:

In a milk crate, in a busted ass utv, surrounded by tall ass weeds and mushrooms.

 

15 hours ago, JACKASS said:

It was, took it down after wind snapped off the pole it was on.

Haven’t got around to putting it back up since I want it located right instead of putting it back where it was. Thanks @dendritefor the siting link.

Rain gauge is trustworthy though.

 

Was this @dendrite's siting recommendation for you? 

I was going to ask for the link but may pass...I can probably find an old couch or washing machine on the side of the road to bring home and get setup properly  

[weatherwiz]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think areas east too. Some models show stuff on south coast seabreeze. There’s good instability SoP.

Instability pretty large tomorrow. Shear certainly doesn't look great so probably looking at some pulse type. Will probably see a ton of lightning in any storms and a localized FF risk where storms occur. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

May have to open the page on 1/12 this winter

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I think everyone’s excepted that this winter is lost and will likely be very mild. That will probably make it more enjoyable, the few small snow events we get 

Okay.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Dude we’re trolling. Go back to working on your outlook.

[weatherwiz]

Won't have any time to dig into winter analysis but I really am curious how this winter will go. I do find it extremely hard to believe though this will not be a well above average for much of the U.S. With how expansive the 28-30C waters are (and still growing) expansive ridging is going to be too dominant. Hard to see anything really combating that. Probably be dealing with a raging jet too...but with that, maybe we get something and we benefit in a big way from a powerful jet

[Brewbeer]

currently 77/75 in the 'hood, not a good day to work outside if you don't like being drenched in sweat

 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Cloud base is not typical of marine layer. At least here. Jsut stubborn warm front dews.

Looked that way down here earlier, but most of that faded. Just some normal cloudcover now, and looks to be breaking up a bit to our west. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just hope for a roll of the dice KU this winter - with general snowfall expectations at basement level. 

[weatherwiz]

Saturday could be a pretty good widespread day of storms with some strong-to-severe storms 

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah Saturday was the day, hopefully a few storms in a season devoid of them

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Dude I'm trolling. Go back to cluttering the thead.

[weatherwiz]

This isn't bad for D3. I'm not huge into these products but assessing everything you can see the potential is there and when you supplement with this product its certainly a real signal. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are we going to have to got through another fall of you injecting your winter predictions in every conflicting post you see?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Are we going to have to got through another fall of you injecting your winter predictions in every conflicting post you see?

How would CPC answer this?

More likely than not?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How would CPC answer this?

More likely than not?

Not sure, but you reminded me the new drought monitor is out.

Still abnormally dry for BDL, but at least after 20” of rain the S coast isn’t dry anymore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All joking and ball-busting aside, I certainly see a pathway to a poor winter given the situation with ENSO....and to steal a page from CPC, it's definitely more likely that snowfall will below average than above, however, I think it's far from a foregone conclusion that it will be poor...and yes, I'll spend the better part of the next 3 months of my life explaining why. As far as temps go, it will almost certainly be above average...I think the floor is near normal, like 1957.

Crazy how that same area from MBY into se NH has been a screw-zone for QPF this decade...that has been so consistent.