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Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, dendrite said:

Oh I agree. Although if we’re going to lump dewpoint into it you could argue that the normal max “feels like” temp at MLS isn’t much different than places in SNE.

But I was just making a quick quip about some random person making that move to MT to get away from everything and getting surprised at how freakin hot it can be up there.

As for the 90° being hot thing…I can see it both ways. Sure, “it’s sooo hot in Dallas today at 95°” is ridiculous, but sensibly to humans, 90° is just plain hot whether it’s normal for the season or whether it’s a record for the date. We had family friends that lived in S AZ and even though they got used to, and averaged, 100+ she said no one went outside there until after 6pm. Fairbanks could have a +20F January and it’s still dangerously cold for us. I know you know all of this, but my point is just that 90s can be hot for humans and not hot for a location at the same time. But I agree, the media does twist and play with weather events that aren’t climatologically significant while trying to portray them that way. But it’s that way with everything on “social” media now. Gotta keep those likes and clicks coming. 

I did not want to bring up the "feels like" temp, as that is out of control as to abuse, but it can be of use b/c "the door swings both ways!"  Once you get below 57 or 58 dew point, the heat index is actually lower than the air temp!  I would bet not many mets know or actively realize this.  I did not know until about 10 years ago!

I've spoken to ppl deployed in the Middle East, they can get perspective!  After in that sauna for a few months, coming home, 95 feels great! 

Acclimation I think is underrated.  When I moved to DC, it took me a few summers to get used to the more 90 temps and the more persistent high dew point, which get into the upper 70s more common here.  By my 3rd summer, I not longer noticed it. I adapted.  However, the flip side is that I am not as tolerant to cold.  This past winter was by far the coldest here since I moved here, and I noticed!  

I think from the general public POV, they think MT is "cold."  Most have zero idea what continental climate is like, and MT is the best state for temp swings in the CONUS.  It is the only state in the Lower 48 that has had sig snow at lower elevations (I am taking Great Falls proper) in August (happened in 1992).

It's even worse for AK.  Ppl are shocked to learn AK highest temps is 100 F, and that they get a lot tstms (all squeezed into J-J-A). Some locations get 30 days w/ thunder, more than a lot of New England!  And of course, tornadoes.  We had that one earlier this month, but I would bet good $$ there are 3-5 tornado in AK each year, just it is so large and sparsely populated, it precludes detection.

 

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jlauderdal

jlauderdal

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I was just going to post this.. seems like the Berks might be under the gun later on

Im at Jiminy Peak, light rain now but looks better upstream, there is a creek flowing hard that looks like decent flood potential, will see at daybreak how its doing after the rain picks up.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I was just going to post this.. seems like the Berks might be under the gun later on

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. 
 

I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. 
 

I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck. 

That said, they’ll be some enhancement when that moisture does make it into the upslope SE flow zones. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

6z ICON.has 14 more for eastern NY :flood:

Check out Albany radar. You can see that the flow just off the deck is coming in from the west north west right towards the Hudson Valley while it’s SE near and SE of Albany. Just a classic convergence corridor wringing out all this rain. Gonna be big-time issues there.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Check out Albany radar. You can see that the flow just off the deck is coming in from the west north west right towards the Hudson Valley while it’s SE near and SE of Albany. Just a classic convergence corridor wringing out all this rain. Gonna be big-time issues there.

Kind of surprised that area isn't in a high risk for flash flooding

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wx_observer

wx_observer

Posted
Posted

How is Central MA looking between now and noon for rain and severe potential?  Need to bring my kiddo in to get his wisdom teeth out this morning and wondering we'll be lucky enough to get back home before the worst of the weather gets here.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. 
 

I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck. 

Upslope not nearly as big factor this time of year, simply b/c low-level winds from the SE, E, or NE are not as strong, and fetch is much less.  Ever notice summer low pressure areas are smaller than the cool season counterparts?  Well, there is reason for that and thus you can't treat things synoptically all the same in the summer.

Convection plays a much larger role in the summer, so that messed w/ things are well.  Swaths from training regardless of topography.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the rain over Southwest CT is not Uber heavy at least.

No it's not its just heavy, nothing we can't handle 2-3" totals so far will probably max out at 3-4 iso 5" over a 4-6 hour window which isn't devastating, just some minor issues I'd imagine.  Also looks like steady rain is done in SWCT within the hour.

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