Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[winter_warlock]

12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

perfect winter imo

I agree

[winter_warlock]

We all need a storm that gives us our whole seasonal snow fall in 1 storm. I think if we got that we might be able to cope with a warmer winter lol

[winter_warlock]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Always a great time when the ultimate snow weenie has thrown in the towel in September 

 

Throwing in the winter towel in September makes as much sense as the Cleveland browns deciding to start  selling playoff tickets in September ! 

[bncho]

18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

"All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol. 

nah, i’m stalking out winter for 24 hours of snow. 

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Throwing in the winter towel in September makes as much sense as the Cleveland browns deciding to start  selling playoff tickets in September ! 

all it takes is one well timed cold air mass.  I would never throw in the towel if we have the precip side of the equation in play.

[Maestrobjwa]

22 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

"All it takes is one storm" So you are stalking out Winter for 6 months for 18 hours of snowfall? No thanks, give me 20 light snow events, "snowfall days". My trees are already losing leaves - the most depressing 6 months of the year for 1 storm, no lol. 

Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond!

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond!

If we go neutral next year then it’ll be off the table until 30-31.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If we go neutral next year then it’ll be off the table until 30-31.

Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19

[frd]

From one of the earliest, strongest PV formations to now currently forecasted to weaken, as the AO goes from positive to negative. 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not necessarily...we had neutral after 2016 were neutralish in 16-17, nina 17-18, but then niño (albeit very weak) in 18-19

2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

2016-17 was a weak Nina and short lived. ENSO was neutral by the beginning of Feb. My first Rehoboth beach blizzard chase was early Jan that winter, then the next one was early Jan 2018- the 'bomb cyclone'. Been 4 blizzards there in the last 10 years. Crazy.

Just one more reason to hate Ocean City!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Just one more reason to hate Ocean City!

Yeah not a fan.  Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though.

[AnEndlessMaze]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just one more reason to hate Ocean City!

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah not a fan.  Love the Lewes/Rehoboth area though.

Ocean City was nice... in the 90's. Lots of good childhood memories there. Last time we were in OC was 2013 and we decided never to go back, it had really gone downhill even then.

Rehoboth is still great though!

I haven't been to Virginia Beach since I was a little kid, and am wondering what it's like now. We were thinking of going there next year.

[nw baltimore wx]

6 minutes ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

Ocean City was nice... in the 90's. Lots of good childhood memories there. Last time we were in OC was 2013 and we decided never to go back, it had really gone downhill even then.

Rehoboth is still great though!

I haven't been to Virginia Beach since I was a little kid, and am wondering what it's like now. We were thinking of going there next year.

Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks.

[AnEndlessMaze]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks.

Duly noted. You're not the first person who's told me this either LOL

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not trying to hijack the thread, but if you’re willing to make the drive to VA beach, put in the extra hour and go to the outer banks.

Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run.

[SnowenOutThere]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much going on in here probably until WW dumps the WB maps for the next CFS Control run.

I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans. 

[TSSN+]

How much for short pump? 

[mitchnick]

BAM Wx winter forecast. Mainly average snowfall to slightly below in northern areas and slightly above in southern areas. But they put all of the forum in the highest chance to bust high for snowfall due to risk of a big 1 or 2 storms. (See starting 17:35 on video.) A little AN on temps.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

While a strong, east-based El Nino is probably hostile for snow chances I wonder what, if any role the Atlantic may play since it's not been turned over with any meaningful tropical cyclone activity.

[Eskimo Joe]

Give me this 500mb evolution all winter. West coast ridge, blocking in Greenland, trough over us...yea buddy.

 

 

[CAPE]

On 9/23/2026 at 12:37 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

I think everyone knows where this winter stands. It'll be above average temperatures, especially in December and it is unlikely we get any real sustained periods of frigid temps, save our conception of how the atmosphere behaves in a strong el nino being wrong. It's also a good bet we will have favorable storm tracks and a very active subtropical jet stream to bring in above average precip. That is all we can really say. We can then formulate that this season will be a boom or bust depending on if we get lucky with a shot of cold air at the right time, but we can't speculate on any details of that responsibly. Anything else is extrapolating or doesn't have much climatological backing. That's it. We now just have to wait through at least October, if not November/December, to watch how the atmosphere couples with the oceans. 

Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Good post. Not sure why you replied to mine though lol. Should have been a stand alone post. Not really relevant and out of context to what I posted.. I was just making a funny about not much happening in the thread other than Will promising to post every CFS Control run going forward. Yes most of us don't want/need to see that crap. Pretty clear how this winter will play out in general.

You (hopefully) know that I respect you as a poster so that post wasn’t targeted at your own meteorological knowledge. You’re the reason, alongside other posters and some professors, I’ve gotten this far. I was responding to the chain of thought of “there’s not much going on” in this thread because, yeah, there really shouldn’t be anything going on! It’s the awkward period of winter forecasting where you can paint big picture but any details won’t be clear. We both know there aren’t great correlations between weather and winter till October at the very soonest, so we really can’t say much till then. 

[Ji]

WTH is going here

https://suno.com/s/XkGmMIhcxeWT6Glx

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 9/14/2026 at 2:23 PM, forkyfork said:

this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful

because 1983 had literally the same setup and produced a big mid atlantic snowstorm?

 

[ensonerd1233e343]

On 9/15/2026 at 12:52 PM, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

thats not true this enso state is not "histroically unfavroable" we only have two events like it one torched and had no snow the other had a torch dec then near normal jan feb that had a blizzard in there

There are defenitly more unfavorable enso states for mid atl snow

[ensonerd1233e343]

I dont wanna sound to weenie but i dont think people realize how good of a look the nmme is for mid atlantic snowfall its jan feb maps look like carbon copys of the avg of the 5 strong/super nino events that produced good snow here you have the same key 3 features 

1 big goa/pac low 

2 hudson bay ridge

3 trough centered over the gulf coast 

of course details are not exactly the same but big pic it basiaclly is 

and its certiannly not the same as the one with no big snows in dc 

[ensonerd1233e343]

Just now, ensonerd1233e343 said:

I dont wanna sound to weenie but i dont think people realize how good of a look the nmme is for mid atlantic snowfall its jan feb maps look like carbon copys of the avg of the 5 strong/super nino events that produced good snow here you have the same key 3 features 

1 big goa/pac low 

2 hudson bay ridge

3 trough centered over the gulf coast 

of course details are not exactly the same but big pic it basiaclly is 

and its certiannly not the same as the one with no big snows in dc 

the one thing that seperates those two composites is weather or not a +iod forced upper divergence patterrn occurs into midwinter the sst signal pretty much always goes away but if the event was strong enough the upper divergent signal over the western io can stay and all years with no snow had it and all years with lots snow did not 

My grand theroy is that when its just the nino like pacfic forcing the n america wavetrain the cooler anamolies are centered over the se conus and a -nao tends to appear ( or more negative compared to the other compostie) and mid atl can get a good snow or two while when the western io is also forcing the wavetrain it interfers with the el nino centering the cold over the sw conus which torches the east and leaves it without snow

i should note cs3 has the divergent signal emerging in nov but collapses it by jan 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

WTH is going here

https://suno.com/s/XkGmMIhcxeWT6Glx

good use of AI

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

I dont wanna sound to weenie but i dont think people realize how good of a look the nmme is for mid atlantic snowfall its jan feb maps look like carbon copys of the avg of the 5 strong/super nino events that produced good snow here you have the same key 3 features 

1 big goa/pac low 

2 hudson bay ridge

3 trough centered over the gulf coast 

of course details are not exactly the same but big pic it basiaclly is 

and its certiannly not the same as the one with no big snows in dc 

Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo