Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[ravensrule]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO. 

Who hacked your account Chuck? You're making me nervous with your positivity. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold?

I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case

An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao. 

[Cobalt]

On 9/14/2026 at 8:27 PM, Terpeast said:

2 things can be true. A winter could be warm and rainy, and it could also have a blizzard. 

This is the thing forky is deliberately forgetting. 2023-24 averaged 0.7F warmer (DCA) compared to 97-98, and had 8" of snowfall. 15-16 was only 0.5F colder than 97-98. Likewise, 72-73 was 3F colder than that winter, but was also a shutout. A Super Nino can overwhelm the base state with torcherrific airmasses for 90% of the winter, but it very evidently does its best to load the deck in the few intervals that temperatures are remotely seasonable. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold?

I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case

An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao. 

Eh...I see what you're saying, but ENSO doesn't operate in a vacuum. I get the sample size limitation, but we also need to consider that 3/4 Super El Ninos have occurred during the descending portion of the solar cycle, which is pretty hostile towards sustained high latitude blocking. I don't think that connection between descending solar and super El Nino is a coincidence, either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/14/2026 at 2:23 PM, forkyfork said:

this is stronger and further east than 1997. why is anyone remotely hopeful

I think your thought process is intentionally linear here.....you know damn well how chaotic snowfall is and the bar that year is pretty damn low...I'll take the over. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/15/2026 at 3:16 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO. 

You don't think +EPO has been historically favored during super El Nino with a huge GOA low?? The seasonal mean will be +EPO, but I think we can have some fleeting periods of cross polar flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We won the toss in 2016 so I'm predicting we lose it this time, lol We only win the super niño toss every other time!

There will undoubtedly be less MC influence this season relative to 2016.

[psuhoffman]

23 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why the most historically unfavorable enso state is going to be better this time

Who is saying it will be?   Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who is saying it will be?   Most I see are saying it's likely to be warm and wet but at least we have a chance to score one huge snowstorm if we get lucky and time up one of the storms with cold...which is what all the east based strong nino's indicate is our fate.  

100%. Strong ninos tend to run on the mild side but they also favor decent qpf makers and good storm tracks for our specific region. A good track can't do it by itself though so now we're drilled down into a level a detail that can only be wildly guessed at and not predicted until much further down the road. East based and basin wide ninos don't "eliminate" cold air in the east when it matters and there is no reason to assume warmth will completely overwhelm at this stage. 

I feel pretty confident that the AO will not be hostile and is more likely to be favorable than the opposite. December is important there. Even if it doesn't help during December, a solid -AO in December often translates into a -AO in Jan and/or Feb. NAO? Beats me. Fickle beast... lol

I don't see anyone around here banging a big snow drum in the MA region. Cautiously optimistic until proven otherwise is a fair take imho. The only thing I feel pretty certain about is this winter will not be as cold and dry as last winter. Easy call there.

[Winter Wizard]

Even in the two Super El Ninos (1972-73 and 1997-98) that produced near shutout winters, it wasn't because of lack of opportunities. There were big storms, just elsewhere.

January 1973 was one of the biggest daily snowfalls in Virginia Beach's history. Then February 1973 was one of the most greatest snowstorms in the Southeast.

1998 had one of the worst ice storms on record in New England and an all timer blizzard in Kentucky. Even interior areas of the Northeast managed to do well in some of the events that were all rain near I-95. It's not hard to see how those storms could become an I-95 hit instead if the deck is reshuffled. 

Pinpointing whether storms are a hit or miss comes down to storm track, which partially comes down to luck but more so based on large scale teleconnections that cannot be accurately pinpointed this far out. Either way, warm overall (dare I say torch) with a higher than usual chance of a KU seems like a reasonable call. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

100%. Strong ninos tend to run on the mild side but they also favor decent qpf makers and good storm tracks for our specific region. A good track can't do it by itself though so now we're drilled down into a level a detail that can only be wildly guessed at and not predicted until much further down the road. East based and basin wide ninos don't "eliminate" cold air in the east when it matters and there is no reason to assume warmth will completely overwhelm at this stage. 

I feel pretty confident that the AO will not be hostile and is more likely to be favorable than the opposite. December is important there. Even if it doesn't help during December, a solid -AO in December often translates into a -AO in Jan and/or Feb. NAO? Beats me. Fickle beast... lol

I don't see anyone around here banging a big snow drum in the MA region. Cautiously optimistic until proven otherwise is a fair take imho. The only thing I feel pretty certain about is this winter will not be as cold and dry as last winter. Easy call there.

If the AO is persistently negative, it seems to correlate to at least some -NAO episodes, esp in a Nino. Just going on memory/intuition. They do seem to jibe more times than not. Ofc 2009-10 is the benchmark, but this Nino is not going to be that. Just need a 2 week period where everything aligns like Jan 2016.

[JenkinsJinkies]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-polar-vortex-emerging-winter-2026-2027-disruption-forecast-stratospheric-warming-trend-united-states-canada-europe-fa/