Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Really? Don't believe everything you read over in the main Enso thread. Lol The seasonal models will not nail every location. Here's the 9/25 forecast off the Cansips for 12/25-2/26. It has BWI +.5C, so say +1F. What happened at BWI? Every month was BN with an average for the 3 months of -3.7F. So it was too cold in Colorado, and who cares, and too warm where we live.

 

P.s. I've already said in the other forum this winter will likely be AN. The question is, obviously, by how much.

Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. 

I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months. 

[CAPE]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the AO will be negative.....EPO and NAO+ in the seasonal mean.

-AO is key for cold down here(minus a -EPO), but in a Nino the Aleutian/NE Pac trough position/strength can mitigate the tendency to deliver colder air southward if the flow of Pac air into Canada is overwhelming.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

-AO is key for cold down here(minus a -EPO), but in a Nino the Aleutian/NE Pac trough position/strength can mitigate the tendency to deliver colder air southward if the flow of Pac air into Canada is overwhelming.

Yup.

[Eskimo Joe]

So is this an east based, or basinwide El Nino at this point?

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So is this an east based, or basinwide El Nino at this point?

East. Might back west into central/basin wide before it dissipates

[clskinsfan]

Just give us moisture out here this winter. It has been a decade of watching eastern folks get hit while we get skunked. Wound up coastal plain runners would be fine by me. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 9/1/2026 at 11:13 AM, TSSN+ said:

Yes please 

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models

Chicago area

Iowa