Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It's pretty bad now already. I could distinctly smell the smoke on the Blue Mountain where we load our water. Elevation may play a part in that, though, as it's a bit higher that the valleys below.

Not much of a smoke smell here thankfully 

[TheDreamTraveler]

Surprised there's no heat advisory today when the heat index has gotten to 103/104 which is what was listed for the advisory a day or so before

[mahantango#1]

Within the last half hour the thicker smoke showed up here, and you can smell it.

[canderson]

Yea it’s horrible out now with smoke. Smells like a camp fire is right next to you. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Within the last half hour the thicker smoke showed up here, and you can smell it.

28 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yea it’s horrible out now with smoke. Smells like a camp fire is right next to you. 

On my last load it was even getting into the truck through the air conditioner. It stinks out there.

Despite the smoke, I've maxed out (so far) at 89 degrees 

[canderson]

I don’t recall it being this Smokey on the fire rampage 2 or whatever years ago. It’s acrid out. And you can smell it inside now. 

[Superstorm]

Smoke on GOES….



.

[canderson]

As Saturday evening looks quite stormy. Severe stuff possible. 

[pawatch]

59 degrees this morning 

Looks like another day of smoke

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

AQI was up to 350 here around 2 AM. That's probably the worst I've ever seen it here.

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

6 hours ago, canderson said:

As Saturday evening looks quite stormy. Severe stuff possible. 

Yeah looking like some naders are possible

[Superstorm]

452 near Middletown. Brutal.

[mahantango#1]

52 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

452 near Middletown. Brutal.

 

 

 

252

µg/m³

Hazardous

Avg262.4

Peak455

 

 

63.5°

Dew Point

63.2°F

From Yesterday

8.3°F

Feels Like

63.5°F

Yesterday afternoon was really bad here. with a peak of 455

[Yardstickgozinya]

It got nasty out there last night while I was at my Colombia hole.. The Mayflies and the smoke were unbearable but my patients paid off. Sat out in this s*** all night last night, probably not the healthiest thing to do. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Tuesday Day 5

 

Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest to the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

   A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and
   northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper
   Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
   vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will
   develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on
   Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper
   level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New
   England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise
   progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very
   moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall
   pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential
   from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley,
   Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday,
   necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some
   over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and
   influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general
   regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered
   damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front
   sweep across the area.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 67 with thick smoke, which thankfully looks to clear out pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon.  Hopefully we get some nice storms tomorrow and then Sunday looks beautiful.  Harrisburg tied its max min record of 77 yesterday.  National high of 121 at Stovepipe Wells, CA and low of 36 at Mt. Washington, NH.  Carry on.

[Jns2183]

      252 µg/m³ Hazardous Avg262.4 Peak455     63.5° Dew Point 63.2°F From Yesterday 8.3°F Feels Like 63.5°F Yesterday afternoon was really bad here. with a peak of 455

My air quality monitor finally paid of. I have it upstairs in my daughter's room. The 4.0 has been a bit worse than 2.5 and 1.0. regardless they have peaked in the aqi range of 104-115 inside


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[ChescoWx]

Smoke will continue to be a problem through tonight. We should be several degrees cooler than yesterday with what looks like to me no temps near 90 degrees for at least the next couple of weeks. Tomorrow will be warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms across the area. We turn much cooler by Sunday with highs in the upper 70's to near 80. Nighttime lows by Monday morning will be in the 50's across many of our lower valley locations. Temperatures through the next week look to remain below normal through what is on average our hottest week of the year.

[Itstrainingtime]

[Itstrainingtime]

[canderson]

A SPC 45% damaging wind probability is … high 

Next Tuesday to me even looks like a higher chance of severe. Have a Death Cab For Cutie concert at Merriweather Tuesday night and already and making plans to not go. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

It took a couple stills from my videos from last night.I was adjacent to the  Point rock tunnel in Colombia Pa. The route 30 bridge as only a few hundred yards in front of me, you can just make it out If you look closely. Between the mayflies and the smoke, you couldn't even see vehicle lights for more than a few hundred feet. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

For anybody who doesn't know the Colombia and Wrightsville area of the river is infamous for its mayflie hatch. The municipality has been turning off the lights on the bridge in response to several accidents, and even small pile ups that occurred due to mayfly hatches. The picture I included was found online, probably from a few years ago, before they turned off, the lights prior to may fly hatches. 

[Superstorm]

It got nasty out there last night while I was at my Colombia hole.. The Mayflies and the smoke were unbearable but my patients paid off. Sat out in this s*** all night last night, probably not the healthiest thing to do. 

Flathead?


.

[Yardstickgozinya]

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Flathead?


.

Yes sir. 11Lbs short of a personal best, but I'll still take it at 44lbs. The past two trips my son has hooked something absolutely monstrous and it's thrown the hook both times. My son and I are on some really big fish at the moment and I think it's only a matter of a trip or two until we land something on a whole other level. We've had some opportunities at something special the last few trips but we just can't land it. I've been a few pounds short of the state record twice in the past 20 years when it was still down in the 50lbs range. Now that it's at sixty six pounds, and i'm fifty years old, the Flathead record is starting to become a tall order

[Voyager]

So, will tomorrow's high severe chances finally overcome the Tamaqua Split?

 

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So, will tomorrow's high severe chances finally overcome the Tamaqua Split?

 

Smoke will limit fuel - but there is a theory smoke can create its on low-level system to enhance a front. We’ll see!

[Voyager]

Even Channel 6 Philadelphia sees the Tamaqua Split... 

[mahantango#1]

.DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --

KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy rainfall are possible from mid-day into late evening. Tornadoes also possible. SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special (conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA (including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA. Early showers and even a thunderstorm or two will occur near/along a pair of warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning and early afternoon. The vort max moving into western PA at 07Z is expected to continue to touch off showers this morning. Some lightning is possible, mainly across the S. There should not be a threat for severe weather until at least late this morning after we can get the clouds and showers away and get some heating/pump up the CAPE. The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate look like they will be early enough in the day that ample heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete, spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable. 70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front, and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE, esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across the N for much of the day. The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we`ll have to watch all of the CWA for storm initiation in early and mid afternoon. These could also be supercells away from the SE - at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough materializes.

[mahantango#1]