Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[mahantango#1]

US National Weather Service State College PA 

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Sun - June 21, 2026 @ 6 AM EDT: We'll have pleasant weather to end the holiday weekend with comfortably warm temperatures, low humidity and plenty of sun. Humidity will significantly increase late tonight and Monday as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of low pressure headed our way from the Midwest. In additional to periods of steady rain, the risk for severe thunderstorms will develop across the Southeastern half of the state. There will also be a tornado threat with the stronger storms. A more southern track to the area of low pressure would decrease the region where severe thunderstorms are possible.

[pawatch]

06” from showers the last 24 hours.

59 cloudy 

Happy Father’s Day to all you Fathers!

[canderson]

.1” last night. So lucky. 
 

In shocking news Monday’s rain is headed south. 

[ChescoWx]

Happy Father's Day to all the dad's out there! Plus happy first day of summer which began this morning at 4:24am. Another great weather day is on tap across the area. Temperatures are not far from typical levels for very early summer. Rain chances to ramp up by later tomorrow before we clear out for mid-week. Shower chances return again by Thursday afternoon.

[mahantango#1]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

.1” last night. So lucky. 
 

In shocking news Monday’s rain is headed south. 

I'm glad I have my irrigation pump set up to pump water out of the creek for my garden. I watered Friday and yesterday morning.

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

.1” last night. So lucky. 
 

In shocking news Monday’s rain is headed south. 

What makes you say that? 

WPC precip map is weighted heavily to our NE with the heaviest rainfall.

[Superstorm]

Gorgeous weather. Bottle this up!


.

[Itstrainingtime]

SPC has upgraded much of the LSV south and east of 81 to a SLGT tomorrow. And this one looks like it has legs in regards to potential spinners.

[canderson]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What makes you say that? 

WPC precip map is weighted heavily to our NE with the heaviest rainfall.

Oh sorry I meant the axis loos like it might miss a decent part of our region with the bulk of precip with the SW to NE axis. 
 

The WC games in Philly and NJ tomorrow will be interesting 

[Yardstickgozinya]

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

SPC has upgraded much of the LSV south and east of 81 to a SLGT tomorrow. And this one looks like it has legs in regards to potential spinners.

Yes, apparently, if the sun can break through, that'll be key in that possible evolution. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I went through some serious b*******, and I'd hate to see it happen to anybody else. 

Reclassification as Non-IBD

IBD-related medications (namely, 5-aminosalicylates, thiopurines, corticosteroids, and anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF]) were used in 55 of the 108 patients (50.9%) misdiagnosed with UC and in 80 of the 184 patients (43.5%) misdiagnosed with CD (Table 3)

https://journals.lww.com/ajg/fulltext/2023/10001/s1033_misdiagnosis_of_inflammatory_bowel_disease_.1572.aspx

 

[Voyager]

6 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I went through some serious b*******, and I'd hate to see it happen to anybody else. 

Reclassification as Non-IBD

IBD-related medications (namely, 5-aminosalicylates, thiopurines, corticosteroids, and anti-tumor necrosis factor [TNF]) were used in 55 of the 108 patients (50.9%) misdiagnosed with UC and in 80 of the 184 patients (43.5%) misdiagnosed with CD (Table 3)

https://journals.lww.com/ajg/fulltext/2023/10001/s1033_misdiagnosis_of_inflammatory_bowel_disease_.1572.aspx

 

So what mimics IBD's. I'm in that stage right now. I was first told I had CD, then I was told there wasn't evidence of "chronic inflammation", so no official diagnosis, but my gastro believes that I do have Crohn's. I don't know. What I do know is that this started in February, and that I feel like crap far more often than I don't.

[Yardstickgozinya]

18 minutes ago, Voyager said:

So what mimics IBD's. I'm in that stage right now. I was first told I had CD, then I was told there wasn't evidence of "chronic inflammation", so no official diagnosis, but my gastro believes that I do have Crohn's. I don't know. What I do know is that this started in February, and that I feel like crap far more often than I don't.

Wow, that sounds familiar. I am only speaking for myself here, but I actually had a bout of something similar about ten years prior that was much shorter in duration..  Looking back, I believe that both times I was dealing with a lot of anxiety. I really have no idea, though. Whatever it was, kept me nauseous 24/7 for well over 2 years. I would vomit at least three or four times a week. One of the other things about the whole ordeal that really p***** me off, is that the gastroentinologist also insisted that I had acid reflux and needed fundoplication . Being a much less invasive procedure, I went through with it. A few months after I had that done I develop chronic acid reflux and this time, I was sure of it, because unlike before the surgery, I actually felt like I had acid reflux. I only had it a few times in my life before that and it was from hot dogs every time. Looking back at it now I realize those sons of b****** took advantage of my health insurance. Not saying, that's what's happening to anybody else but that's surely what happened to me. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

It's a 3cape day. The updated outlook should be available soon, but it seems like the days of consistency are over. 

...Mid Atlantic into the Mid-South...
   A midlevel shortwave trough, including the remnant of a prominent
   MCV, is forecast to move from parts of the Upper OH Valley toward
   the Northeast and Mid Atlantic later today. While most guidance
   suggests some dampening of this shortwave trough with time, some
   flow enhancement will persist within the 850-500 mb layer in the
   wake of this shortwave across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
   central/southern Appalachians. Scattered storm development is
   expected by early/mid afternoon within a moist and moderately
   unstable environment. Initial development is expected to evolve into
   forward propagating storm clusters with a threat of damaging winds
   through the afternoon into the early evening. As convection
   intercepts a northward-moving warm front across the Mid Atlantic,
   locally backed flow may support development of at least transient
   supercells, with some tornado potential. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Yardstickgozinya]

Funday Monday. Stay safe out there, fellas . 

 

- Remove Highlighting --

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

430 FXUS61 KCTP 220840 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 440 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Level 2/5 severe T-storm risk expanded over the southern tier of central PA for this afternoon and evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are possible across the southern tier/third of central PA this afternoon and evening && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible across the southern tier/third of central PA this afternoon and evening Steady warm advection rain has expanded across the northern tier early this morning. This leading edge rain is likely tied to 850mb wind max downstream of dampening mid level shortwave trough/remnant MCV in the Ohio Valley. Hires guidance focuses mean QPF in the 0.50-0.75 inch range to the north of I-80 through 18Z with local rainfall amounts possibly exceeding 1 inch by early afternoon. Attention shifts to the south this afternoon and evening as a warm front will lift north of the MD line to a position somewhere between I-80 and US-22. Sfc dewpoints are projected to surge into the upper 60s to the south of the warm front where some cloud breaks should allow for at least modest destabilization. The moderately sheared and conditionally moist/unstable convective environment should promote scattered t-storm ignition into peak diurnal heating. The initial storm development is expected to evolve into forward propagating clusters with a strong to locally damaging wind threat. As convection intercepts the northward moving warm front over the southern tier of CPA, locally backed flow and more favorable low level shear may support the development of at least transient supercells with some tornado potential. SPC has expanded the level 2/5 slight risk to include the entire southern tier/third of CPA (areas near and south of US-22) along with corresponding severe wind and 2% tornado probs. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with pwat values between 1.5 and 2 inches. This is around the 95th percentile for this time of year and would support intense rain rates perhaps as high as 2-3"/hr. A warm cloud depth in excess of 11,000 feet and tall, skinny CAPE profiles also support a heavy rain signal. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 slight risk for excessive rainfall (ERO) over roughly the southern third of the forecast area where isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible, particularly in training/repeat storms over urban areas. The two limiting factors going against a more considerable flash flood threat are the ongoing dryness/drought conditions focused over the LSV and fairly progressive storm motions.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&highlight=on&glossary=1

[Jns2183]

Some light reading

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[mahantango#1]

Seen this at the theater in Wilkes Barre when it came out, and got the dvd...well worth seeing excellent!  Agnes Flood Documentary Project

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On this date in 1972 - June 21 - torrential rains were hitting the Wyoming Valley. "Agnes" was here. Two days later, the people of the Wyoming Valley experienced what, to this day, is simply referred to as "The Flood." It was the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. On Wednesday June 24, the story of those days, and the weeks and months that followed, will be told when "Agnes" returns to the big screen at the F.M. Kirby Center. Showtimes are 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. Tickets will be available at the box office at showtime, or can be purchased in advance by visiting www.kirbycenter.org

 

or by calling (570) 826-1100.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/963239149844407

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