Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Those on the Gulf coast should keep an open mind this winter, some dude in Pensacola measured a foot of snow outside of his office 17 months ago.

That S+ event was truly exceptional!  Even I was impressed!   It takes a lot to impress me big for wx events these days.  When you study wx history and records a lot, that tends to do that. 

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Seems like a flash flood threat too… we are over 1” on the day and every one of these pulses is just cranking water.

Looks like there may be some training developing within the line too.

I bet we can do another 1” with what’s coming.

Max I see so far is 2.76" Kingfield ME.  Meso models showed the NNE R+ well.  Mt. Mansfield 2.08"

[vortex95]

7 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

That looks suspicious.  Anytime you see trees sheared/snapped off mid-way like that, that suggests PSBL SPINNER!

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

The line of thunderstorms moved through the Newfound Lake area of NH was not big deal. The storm was of very short duration.  My peak wind gust on my 10M anemometer was 30mph.  Very briefly I had a rain rate of 7.25".  Total rainfall with the thunderstorm was .23".    We got .40" in rain earier today....

This is a timelapse looking SW as the storm passed.  A few claps of thunder.  Also if you slow down my video you can really see how the wind creates small vortices when it comes around terrain.  Looks like a brief spin up as it moves across the field but it is not!

https://video.nest.com/clip/91ec378525ea46fbadf179cc8aeba927.mp4

You can definately see the environmental wind shear from the cloud motions at different levels!

[vortex95]

I count approx 90 wind reports for New England today.  Not something CoastalWx can just go "MEH!"  LOL.

Looks like we have at least one spinner.  I was thinking 1-2 spinners for the event all along.  As WxWiz said, event about as expected.  Limited CGs makes sense given the low CAPE.  Funny, almost like a cool season event b/c of the high shear/low CAPE and limited LTG!

So a victory for the models and pattern recognition well in advance.

[vortex95]

1.3 mi path spinner moves thru 3 states!

 

[CoastalWx]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I count approx 90 wind reports for New England today.  Not something CoastalWx can just go "MEH!"  LOL.

Looks like we have at least one spinner.  I was thinking 1-2 spinners for the event all along.  As WxWiz said, event about as expected.  Limited CGs makes sense given the low CAPE.  Funny, almost like a cool season event b/c of the high shear/low CAPE and limited LTG!

So a victory for the models and pattern recognition well in advance.

NNE wasn’t a question. SNE hype failed and we knew. If you look the rt 2 north area worked out well. Congrats to the old barns and maples in VT. 

[CoastalWx]

Monday could be an interesting setup near the low track which is all over the place. Gfs is likely tossed. 

[Modfan2]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday could be an interesting setup near the low track which is all over the place. Gfs is likely tossed. 

Wasn’t GFS showing 1”+? 

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Wasn’t GFS showing 1”+? 

Went stein at 00z. Ticked north 6z.

[vortex95]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NNE wasn’t a question. SNE hype failed and we knew. If you look the rt 2 north area worked out well. Congrats to the old barns and maples in VT. 

What about the supercells and TOR warnings in MA?  Not a complete fail.

[vortex95]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Went stein at 00z. Ticked north 6z.

Maybe some decent tstms SNE if the low passes far enough N.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Now that's stupid.  What, now cancel everything for a slight risk of svr?  We can't be "held hostage" by the wx for the mere fact there is risk out there! 

I am reminded of the 2009-10 winter when DCA got slammed and CoastalWx was shutout.  The hype was SO out of control, locations in the Northeast such as BUF, that were not going to see a single flake of snow, they cancelled things b/c of the crazy storm hype.  I recall OCMs from YYZ at an AMS conference in 2012 stating the stupid hype from the U.S. stations bleed into Canada, and that was messing things up in Toronto!

This is one reason why I slam the MSM so much, this constant hype and installing fear is counterproductive for society.  There are real social and economic costs/losses b/c of being put in a state of alert all the time.  Every inclement wx is treated as "so dangerous."   The ordinary gets turned into the extraordinary needlessly.  How did society ever survive and progress back in the day before all this nonsense?

Society is being turned into a bunch of softies, unable to handle physically or psychologically any risk/hazard.

We had 2 events cancelled.  One was a staff golf tournament.  That made sense due to rain likelihood and lightning.  The other was our school fishing club was cancelled.  I didn’t know we even had one.  That also made sense. 

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

What about the supercells and TOR warnings in MA?  Not a complete fail.

Meh even a marginal risk can do  that. There was like zero lightning. As we thought.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thunderstorm activity in SNE has been pretty flaccid so far.  I think it ramps up towards the end of the summer. 

[dendrite]

I hope the euro is right Monday…would love a deep soaker. I’d sacrifice a Monday for that. Euro is 2-3” up here while the GFS is mid 70s Mon-Tue. GEFS tickled south too.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We had 2 events cancelled.  One was a staff golf tournament.  That made sense due to rain likelihood and lightning.  The other was our school fishing club was cancelled.  I didn’t know we even had one.  That also made sense. 

To me, it was pretty obvious the timing of these storms. So for this area, it was completely ridiculous.

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like a widespread soaker overall. Probably going to be a hellacious band near low center and along WF.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Monday could be an interesting setup near the low track which is all over the place. Gfs is likely tossed. 

Yeah the GFS is suppressing things.

Euro looks like a sneaky small stream responder problem event there.

[Cyclone-68]

I HATE the high wind/no lightning events…it’s like that low top convection crap in the Fall 

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Max I see so far is 2.76" Kingfield ME.  Meso models showed the NNE R+ well.  Mt. Mansfield 2.08"

Next town to the north (Carrabassett Valley) reported 3.04", and the eponymous river rose 7 feet at the North Anson gauge.  Had 1.27" in our Stratus, 3.51" for June.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah the GFS is suppressing things.

Euro looks like a sneaky small stream responder problem event there.

Feels like one of those deals that could have a narrow area of intense rain. 

[MJO812]

Countdown to less sunlight begins

[Torch Tiger]

Holy wind 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Countdown to less sunlight begins

countdown to more sunlight as well! Exciting

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Countdown to less sunlight begins

 

19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

countdown to more sunlight as well! Exciting

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Holy wind 

Yep. Some pretty strong gusts today