Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like a typical seasonal progression going forward- EOM into July could be a roaster. 

[Torch Tiger]

lfg

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

lfg

No Scotland, no problem 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

No Scotland, no problem 

you'll see 1" Monday AM

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

you'll see 1" Monday AM

If it doesn’t sink south 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No Scotland, no problem 

https://x.com/saperstein21/status/2067062219938894259?s=46

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/saperstein21/status/2067062219938894259?s=46

we everywhere

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it doesn’t sink south 

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids.  I could be wrong

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids

I’m worried about convection Rob. That happens so often in summer . Need to get this to noon Saturday still showing this to buy . 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Working overnights so hence my delayed response.

I say to CoastalWx and WxWiz, SPC added a 2% tor risk in New England in the DY2 1730z update!!!! (adding the exclamation points to be like Indeedsnow -  LOL).   "As I had been saying for tor risk..." 

18z HRRR VT 22z Thu.  3 discrete supercells. PWM, PSM, and one just N of Woburn MA (where I am from).  Scott needs a plan to chase!
 

00z better. Seems like we’ll get temps near and over 80 which is key imo. Hodos are nice. 

[powderfreak]

 

9 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

If anything it'll trend weak and north, models (non-mesos) love blowing up those meso lows in coarse grids.  I could be wrong

If this was winter I’d be stressing here, even at Day 5, ha.

I can’t imagine the forcing would be this widespread but a couple strong systems for the time of year, tomorrow and Monday.

[vortex95]

So here are the last 3 runs of the HRRR 12/18/00z all valid 6pm Thu.  Which one will be right?  It's impossible to tell.  Small details on the mesoscale can make a big difference as to storm mode.

Either way, the timing for this is ideal.  0-3 km CAPE from central NH to CT is high as 150 at 6pm.  And that is big for spinner potential and 150 is more than enough.

Perhaps this is what we will get Thu. Li'l spin-ups w/ nice crisp titled CB vistas!

Punxsutawney PA spinner 6/14/26.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1355336163205600

[vortex95]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z better. Seems like we’ll get temps near and over 80 which is key imo. Hodos are nice. 

Spinner paradise!

[kdxken]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If it doesn’t sink south 

 

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

If this was winter I’d be stressing here, even at Day 5, ha.

I can’t imagine the forcing would be this widespread but a couple strong systems for the time of year, tomorrow and Monday.

 

[Cyclone-68]

Bloomington IND college webcam for sickos like myself who love to watch frequent lightning. (time sensitive of course)

 

https://cpf.iu.edu/weather-camera/index.html

[vortex95]

Charleston IL spinner PT.
 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, but when it comes to sig tor events no matter where you are, the very small details are everything.  One parameter off, or not sufficient, can make a big difference.  For instance, dew points are few degrees lower in in BL than fcst.  That raises the LFC, decreases 0-3 km CAPE, and makes supercells more outflow dominant, which curtails the high-end tornado potential or any tornadoes at all.  There is very little difference between a sig tor event and a weak tor event if you look at the large picture.  It can look perfect synoptically, but it comes down to the mesoscale in the end.

There is a 24 hour tele connector that exists because it’s statistically significant that’s all I’m gonna say
I honestly don’t need the meteorology lesson

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a 24 hour tele connector that exists because it’s statistically significant that’s all I’m gonna say
I honestly don’t need the meteorology lesson

You are missing the point.  Teleconnections deal w/ broad scale patterns.  That only works/is useful to a point.  When it comes to actual sensible wx in a specific area, that's an entirely different ballgame.  How many times do we have a -NAO, and no big East Coast snowstorm occurs, as one example? 

I pointed out the mesoscale details being everything for all to read here, and learn something from it.  You look on social media, and far too often you see people hyping certain patterns, and stating this or that will happen in X or Y region w/o stating any caveats or how it's not so simple/linear as a 1-1 correlation. 

People on this forum, some are still learning and other are eager to learn more, and furthering the discussion is of value net-net. 

And in New England, many just think about the outbreak sequence June 8-9, 1953.  That is a high-end, outlier exception, and that can skew the perception of things from a local bias POV.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m worried about convection Rob. That happens so often in summer . Need to get this to noon Saturday still showing this to buy . 

I don't know about that- not 100% anyway - seems like at least some decent showers will roll through. I'd wager at least .50 for your locale, but is real

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

Yeah There will be some heavy showers, the smoothed out look does not reflect the ground-truth.   There will be haves and have-nots obviously

[Torch Tiger]

not gonna interject but I think Tip gets it 

but FIGHT!!!!

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

Stick?

Ground is too warm. 

[dendrite]

Hopefully it rains so hard none of it soaks in

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

You are missing the point.  Teleconnections deal w/ broad scale patterns.  That only works/is useful to a point.  When it comes to actual sensible wx in a specific area, that's an entirely different ballgame.  

Been reading Tip for 20 years.  He gets the limitations of the teleconnections.

Just pointing out the lag time between a strong shortwave traversing the region from upper plains to maritime.

[Nomz]

Not that bad of a look for svwx tomorrow from the 00z HRRR. Shear is great, and as we saw today in Indiana, >500 3k srh can make triple-digit CAPE work. I think a 5% could be added for tomorrow around the i91 corridor. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

If this was winter I’d be stressing here, even at Day 5, ha.

I can’t imagine the forcing would be this widespread but a couple strong systems for the time of year, tomorrow and Monday.

I would ignore that model and go off typical D3-5 lead in that "look"  ;O   I feel like it'll be a dousing for some but 1-2"++?, while most are .25-.50

BUT I have no idea what is going on, perhaps a pro can chime in.

 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, Nomz said:

Not that bad of a look for svwx tomorrow from the 00z HRRR. Shear is great, and as we saw today in Indiana, >500 3k srh can make triple-digit CAPE work. I think a 5% could be added for tomorrow around the i91 corridor. 

Ineedsnow will be "X-static" if we get 5% tor, but WxWiz will not b/c he can't chase!

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

 ...Northeast...
   Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
   trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
   a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and
   parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into
   southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the
   region.

   Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
   into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
   profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
   However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient
   destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds
   ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells
   should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east,
   producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The
   low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late
   afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a
   stronger SRH environment farther east.

 

[vortex95]

Hmmm, CoastalWx and WxWiz be like "???????."  5% tor risk? How can this be?  No EML!