Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sell the coastal . Convection will rob most of the moisture 

I’m buying decent rains 

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Forget the stupid hazard type. But holy hell WTF

But the CAPE is too low!  "Only" 1291!  Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards.  So it works there but not here?  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

But the CAPE is too low!  "Only" 1291!  Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards.  So it works there but not here?  

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south. 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m buying decent rains 

These things always seem to fizzle in summer with convection involved 

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

But the CAPE is too low!  "Only" 1291!  Lapse rates not high by Midwest standards.  So it works there but not here?  

Yes. Everywhere but here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wouldn’t get wild or hyped up for severe and tors tomorrow. All the parameters not lined up 

[vortex95]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yes. Everywhere but here. 

 

[dendrite]

Wet and wedged up here until mid afternoon tomorrow. Puff puff pass

[weatherwiz]

MAV 76 for BOS tomorrow

MET 66 (and thats the evening)

NBM 81

must be a front or something nearby tomorrow  

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is decent in CNE and NNE but looks like that’s due to better forcing despite being wedged. Looks like warm capped hangover breathe here as usual. 

[CoastalWx]

If we can bust 80 I think potential would increase here. 

[dendrite]

Min 48.7°

Frost on the pumpkin this morning 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is decent in CNE and NNE but looks like that’s due to better forcing despite being wedged. Looks like warm capped hangover breathe here as usual. 

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way 

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way 

But that's how you get an EML!

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

But that's how you get an EML!

But at least when the cap breaks you are rapidly transporting moisture into the troposphere!

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

drier air aloft also looks to be an issue down this way 

We’re advecting warmer air aloft 700-500. Usually not a good sign for SNE unless we had very warm temps. Definitely red flags as usual in SNE but kinematics are there. Like I said, get us over 80. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Slightly warm, mostly dry, and boring (for most)  for at least a week

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we see a small high risk on the new D1. That is a wild environment that will be evolving today. That is a very elongated line of supercells which develop ahead of the cold front later and not to mention supercells which develop along and ride parallel to the front and will be ingesting destabilizing air from the south. 

Doubt it but today should be nice regardless out there. Destructive tag on that latest severe thunderstorm warning out in Iowa. 

As for here, expectations kept in check for tomorrow. Not expecting much down this way. 

Whatever ejects out of the Midwest this weekend looks modestly intriguing. 

[Cyclone-68]

Looks like those poor midwesterners are gonna get hit with everything but the kitchen sink today. 2000-3000 j/kg yikes. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Looks like those poor midwesterners are gonna get hit with everything but the kitchen sink today. 2000-3000 j/kg yikes. 

Must be nice. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

I would caution this does not always work well.  June 2, 1990 has a big tor outbreak in the Great Lakes/Midwest/OH Valley w/ IN getting absolutely crushed w/ 37 tor in the state (more than the 1974 Superoutbreak).  66 tor in this event w/ 7 F4s, and forecasts were big for NY/PA and New England for June 3, and a complete bust.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1990_Lower_Ohio_Valley_tornado_outbreak

mm... this doesn't lower the value nor significance of the statistical correlation - which is synoptic/ holistic in scale. 

Not a discrete convective level/meso analysis/indicator.  Which there are no known telecons that can be that predictively discrete.  For obvious reasons... 

The point is that the set ups tend to move that incremental spatial-temporal range in the 24 hour window.

Hell, not every +PNA/-NAO creates a winter storm here, either, and that's dealing with scales that are far more obvious to the physics.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

MAV 76 for BOS tomorrow

MET 66 (and thats the evening)

NBM 81

must be a front or something nearby tomorrow  

Yeah.. this is what I was suggesting to you yesterday ... there's a warm boundary that the Euro and GFS are less coherently defining.  The NAM on the other hand is kinking the PP enough to suggest a triple point goes underneath Logan. 

I have seen both scenarios verify in situations like this.  I am not presently seeing anything that argues for either. About split.

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah.. this is what I was suggesting to you yesterday ... there's a warm boundary that the Euro and GFS are less coherently defining.  The NAM on the other hand is kinking the PP enough to suggest a triple point goes underneath Logan. 

I have seen both scenarios verify in situations like this.  I am not presently seeing anything that argues for either. About split.

I don't think there has been a situation ever involving a nearby boundary and GFS based products or NBM based products actually throw out numbers suggestive of not warm sectoring. This is going to be a big problem when its basically just NBM for a text based product 

[Cyclone-68]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Must be nice. 

I’d be happy with sub severe 90% of the time. Doesn’t have to be classic plains/midwest tops to 80,000 feet stuff..It looks like I’ll be moving to southern NH in the next two years so hopefully that’ll improve my lot a little