Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[CT Valley Snowman]

Friends of mine moved from Palmer, MA to Canton, IL about 30 miles SW of Peoria last year.  They've been learning the whole Midwest severe thing firsthand. i was updating them today as sirens were going off.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

93 today.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Another complex of storms to the SW.  The rich get richer. 

[WxWatcher007]

A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early. 

[WxWatcher007]

LGA G69 on that latest thunderstorm 

[Hailstoned]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A little concerned that I only saw two fireflies in my backyard tonight. Hopefully they’re just early. 

So far, they seem sparser than in previous Junes here; hopefully, just not out in force yet.

[vortex95]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is after this weekend deep summer is canceled UFN.

You do realize that cooler can mean a lot of tstms and SVR!

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, kdxken said:

Something's not matching up. The ponds are nearly full in my area. That doesn't happen in extreme drought.

MSM cherry-picking again.  Sure you have svr drought SE NH and ern MA, but that is just one local area.  Take a look at the drought status 3 months ago compare to this week for the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic (attached).

Overall improvement for the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic.  A large area of svr drought is gone in NNE. Yet you get ppl just focused on one small area, not telling you the larger picture.  SE NH and ern MA do not exist isolated.  Watersheds flow into this region, and if adjacent watersheds in decent shape for precip, then that mitigates things downstream.

The term "drought" is treated as singular and simple term.  It's not like that at all.  But some never let the details (or key facts) get in the way of a particular narrative (all gloom and doom and the end is nigh).

The MSM narrative is to push drought all the time, as if it never should occur, any that occurs is unusual, and we can't handle it as society, never mind it is just one more thing to hype to scarce the public for ratings.  Drought exits in the U.S 10-15% of time on avg, and it waxes and wanes in irregular cycles.  This is not cause for alarm in itself.

The NEUS and Mid-Atlantic have not had a multi-year drought since the 1960s.  How is that possible if droughts are getting worse w/ time everywhere?   Short-term droughts are common and par for the course.

If you want to see a deep dive and analysis about how drought conditions and declarations are misused and abused, take a look here about conditions in WA currently.  The morale here is that there is more to the story.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/the-is-no-drought-emergency-in.html
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2026/05/why-washington-drought-emergency-should.html
 

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem is their methodology. If we have lower precip  winter, they count as a negative. But in winter, all the precip  it’s either going into the ground or to the lake and rivers, etc. Nothing is absorbing it. So it makes it look like we are El Paso but it’s just kind of silly if you asked me. It’s definitely been dry but extreme is kind of ridiculous. We actually had decent rain last summer too.

There are 4 types of drought:
- meteorological
- agricultural
- hydrological
- socioeconomic

All go into the drought status monitor we see, but it can me misleading. 

For instance, two of the factors have nothing to w/ actual precip.  Agricultural and socioeconomic deal primarily w/ land/water management (or the lack of) and demand over time from increase population/infrastructure (data centers anyone?).

And it goes one step further within the categories.  You can have plenty of rainfall, but a lack of snowfall, so the reservoirs and lakes are full and water table high, but snowpack is below avg. 

And keep in mind, the current U.S. Drought Monitor we look at weekly w/ its current standards and guidelines did not exist prior to 2000.  So that is not long enough to determine trends either way.  What we call drought and how we measure/categorize it has changed over time as well.

From my observations long-term, the U.S Drought Monitor has a tendency to overdo it, and it is misreading b/c most ppl just think lack of precip for drought, when it is much more complex than that.

[vortex95]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan is referenced all the time. Have an intern look up the coops and they’ll see it’s off by 2-3” total LEQ for the late Jan and late Feb snow events. But the media just blindly runs with it.

And here we have yet another factor that misleads.  Bad data and using a single point!

[vortex95]

Wxwiiz mad he missed this???  CoastalWx proby just MEH!  LOL.

Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY.  Hail up to 2" in diameter.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E8jBs32e1/

 

Video of hailfall:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=999500782484311

 

Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1TsM5ejxkj/

 

NW flow delivers!  The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little.

Also, June 20, 1995. See here:

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/remembering-the-1995-hail-storm/16546/

 

[weatherwiz]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Wxwiiz mad he missed this???  CoastalWx proby just MEH!  LOL.

Look what happened Thu just over the border in Pauling NY.  Hail up to 2" in diameter.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E8jBs32e1/

 

Video of hailfall:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=999500782484311

 

Serious wind damage right over the CT border in Quaker Hill NY.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1TsM5ejxkj/

 

NW flow delivers!  The LTG plot reminded me of July 10, 1989 a little.

Also, June 20, 1995. See here:

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/remembering-the-1995-hail-storm/16546/

 

We were hoping that cell would maintain as it went southeast but it weakened some. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Same areas as yesterday for storms today . Except E MA/ RI in on Seabreeze storms . Maybe it’ll finally rain Sunday night . Maybe 

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

One of our window units needed to be replaced so I bought one of the U-shaped Midea’s (not cheap!) the quietness of it was worth the price.  

i have one of those, the 12k version. amazing how quiet (and efficient) it is

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same areas as yesterday for storms today . Except E MA/ RI in on Seabreeze storms . Maybe it’ll finally rain Sunday night . Maybe 

wrong already. about to get a decent downpour here at MHT, which saw nothing yesterday.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

i have one of those, the 12k version. amazing how quiet (and efficient) it is

wrong already. about to get a decent downpour here at MHT, which saw nothing yesterday.

I’m talking about this afternoon. So you got a lucky stray shower . Congrats 

[dendrite]

Working his magic last night and this morning

[Chrisrotary12]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Working his magic last night and this morning

(This worked last time) 

Wait, people are getting rain?

[Chrisrotary12]

Woah… just looked past this weekend. Who turned off summer?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Woah… just looked past this weekend. Who turned off summer?

Yep

[Typhoon Tip]

Should this ceiling contamination go on much longer we're looking at a significant temperature bust today -

I'm sure Ineedacoldbullshitfilterlikeanalcoholicneedsaclinic will stamp a 100% emoji on this ... but CT also just cleared out rather abruptly over the last hour.  Interesting, considering they were wet down there last evening - but this material is mid level so probably not related to that same murk.   Either way, temperature can't really rise unless the clearing down there expands.  We'll see.   We'll rise fast if that happens, but already we're behind yesterday despite the higher launch pad.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

i have one of those, the 12k version. amazing how quiet (and efficient) it is

wrong already. about to get a decent downpour here at MHT, which saw nothing yesterday.

Trace at MHT. Epic. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay ... heh  

I don't think this is the fault of the numerical models.  All of them, including the NAM ... had 700 and 500 mb substantive RH pollution through mid afternoon today. 

Yet, the MOS (MET and MAV) guidance have "SC", which stands for scattered ( significant solar rad penetration inferred), with temperatures going birzirk to the mid 90s. 

At least for present hour, it's a reasonable explanation for the discrepancy.  The interpretive algorithms ( MOS) are thus somehow statistically offsetting the objective guidance, which would be an error to do so in this case. 

The cynical explanation because I hate everybody ... this is a nice and tidy example of how you manufacture a bust...  You get a "lazified" Met society, getting too used to slouch AI and tech in general to do their jobs for them, and in their reliance there is thus a lack of applied Meteorology to the data.  A piece of shit work ethic that gets exposed when the these coffee break solutions in turn fuck up.  Ha.

I dunno... maybe the forecast gets saved by the bell so to speak if this grunge some how suddenly uncaps the sky.

[CoastalWx]

Now this is a summer morning despite the clouds. Too bad this is it for awhile. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now this is a summer morning despite the clouds. Too bad this is it for awhile. 

It’s soupy enough I think the mosquitoes are breeding in midair. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Now this is a summer morning despite the clouds. Too bad this is it for awhile. 

Supposed to be 90 tomorrow and Sun on the same MOS I just impugned  haha.    Hey, it is what it is.  If that's the case, you probably have until that front comes through overnight into Monday morning.

Next week looks like a "seasonally BNer" - ie, not ridic just cooler than it should be for the fact that this is going on at the same time...

(the brown line is the world ... buckin' for warmest ever against 2024 and 2023 as we speak)

Sometimes I think SE Can/NE U.S. are not part of Earth

Anyway, despite that weird intention by Gaia to bull's eye New England for enabling deniers, if not hiding CC from Washington D.C. policy makers altogether, ... the actual thickness in that pattern are not appreciably cold.  Clears out with WNW breeze in 558 dm -type thickness and it's upper 70s.

So there's a sneaky sort of  aspect in that, too -

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s soupy enough I think the mosquitoes are breeding in midair. 

Last night I did a 5 minute post dinner stroll to try and get ahead of insulin resistance ... and that was about 15 min after sunset in the still warm/sultry evening air.   I came to halt and stood their in the dead quite and did not hear one ear whir, and did not feel a single insect land on the legs.  

I don't know what's going on... we don't seem to have any squiter's down this way.  

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Supposed to be 90 tomorrow and Sun on the same MOS I just impugned  haha.    Hey, it is what it is.  If that's the case, you probably have until that front comes through overnight into Monday morning.

Next week looks like a "seasonally BNer" - ie, not ridic just cooler than it should be for the fact that this is going on at the same time...

(the brown line is the world ... buckin' for warmest ever against 2024 and 2023 as we speak)

Sometimes I think SE Can/NE U.S. is not part of Earth

Looks like lower dews tomorrow. I jsut mean a true soupy summer morning. 

[dendrite]

MEX is like 75-80 for everyone CON-south next week. I don’t understand the fretting over that. Yeah we lose the dews and rad spots will have 45-50 nights, but it doesn’t look dire? Beyond d7 I really don’t care what they spew out so INS can post his 300hr 3C 850 maps and I’ll print them and use them for TP. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Last night I did 5 minute walk after dinner to try and get ahead of insulin resistance ... and that was about 15 min after sunset in the still warm/sultry evening air.   I came to halt and stood their in the dead quite and did not hear one ear whir, and did not feel a single insect land on the legs.  

I don't know what's going on... we don't seem to have any squiter's down this way.  

The last 5 days have been insane here. You literally can’t stop moving. It’s like living in the Amazon. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like lower dews tomorrow. I jsut mean a true soupy summer morning. 

Ah,... yeah, I guess.

I typically just use temperature.   DP around here - for me - is always iffy.   Seems odd maybe to think that with an actual ocean sitting there, but we are the confluence of a dry and wet stream.  It seems we spend about equal time either in a continental arid Canadian delivery ( even over the top heat is sometimes coughing dry), or... we get a mash up of Dallas to Chicago industrial flatulence mixed with southern bio-mist.     Every once in a rarer while we'll get a real pure DP air via the Bahama transport - some of the bluest sky on the planet actually occurs when the DP is 78 F that way.