Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

I mean they're spot on with this conceptually, and to an extent with the detailing but they're blowing it with the spatial layout - not without giving a reason why they thinking metro west and Fitchburg -Lawrence and up to Manchester are not part of the diagnostics, which they don't...?   Oh, they do okay... I guess they're okay the way they handled -

Confidence continues to increase that heat and humidity will pose a risk Thursday and Friday. 
As the warm front from Wednesday lifts further north, prolonged southwesterly flow will bring a 
surge of very hot and humid air, especially as 925mb temperatures increase to +27C Thursday and 
up to +30C Friday. Surface dewpoints are likely to top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, 
especially across interior MA and northern CT. These high dewpoints combined with temperatures 
climbing into the low to mid 90s will lead to heat index values approaching 100F Thursday and 
likely above 100F Friday across the CT River Valley, prompting Heat Advisories to be issued for 
northern CT and western MA from noon Thursday until 8PM Friday.

especially away from
the coastal plain. Heat Advisories may be expanded further east;
however, a backdoor cold front is expected to drop into eastern
MA sometime on Friday

Not sure I agree synoptically..I admit to a flaccid PP but I don't see a very 
obvious BD mechanism, ether. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It'll be interesting to test that, the scale/extent/presence of BD over the next two days.  Particularly on Friday...

I see in the 00z GFS, ultra anal close-up OCD Rain Man inspection, that yeah ... there is a 'bulge' west in the PP over E-NE zones... perhaps as far W as ORH, but we're talking 1 to 2 whopping mb here really...

if this is even real.  06z has this less so. 

I've noticed this about guidance, et al, over the last 5 to 7 years.  They have improved significantly in the boundary layer where prior generations of modeling had trouble due to the termination of fields in boundary mechanics. They don't ...or couldn't really, process what is happening as the boundary - in this context, Earth - is approached.  That's why they used to miss "tucks" in winter storms of lore, erode cold too fast ahead of warm fronts in general, all that cold lag winning shit.  They are better at it, but ... it's like they're getting better assessment by over assessing.  I see them create these kind of BD-esque looking features that don't exist, more than they ever used to... right around the same time they've all improved on BL handling in general.  

So... I've spent probably waaaay to much time on this subject this morning at this point, and it's probably a fool's errand considering the room is empty and no one's even reading this very sentence... hahaha. ...yeah

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm speculating 16.8 to 16.9 C and a new date-relative record wrt global 2-meter mean temp by June 26th

[Typhoon Tip]

80 at 9:35 

"10 after 10" 'll be a interesting test today.   We may be 82 or 83 at this rate by the top of the hour, which if that old adage bears any usefulness ...sends us about 7 deg above MOS' around the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT horn.   Although it's probably only 76 at BDL at 10 ... 10 after 10 isn't precise either.