Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[dendrite]

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Couple of nice bolts close by yesterday evening. 

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. 

I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

At least right now, nothing screams the developing EL Nino is a modoki, if anything it looks like we would be looking at a mixed or basin wide event given the strong anomalies in the (hostile) 1.2 region and Nino 4 region. Now, what would happen towards the end of the EL Nino event is a transition to a modoki EL Nino, which isn't uncommon for a weakening stronger EL Nino as region 1.2 tends to be the first to cool. 

In terms of impacts on the continental U.S. summer, Tip and I had some dialogue on this a few weeks back but I don't think there is much of a correlation and there are drivers. EL Nino's tend to not become fully established until late summer or even early Fall. An argument can be made that while the PAC is in the transitioning mode and this may have a quick and direct impact on the Hadley Cell but there atmospheric response can be quite often lagged to how the ocean is evolving and there are other factors to consider. 

Also, if we're just focusing on the impacts on summer to stronger EL Nino events, the sample size really isn't that great and at this point a strong event isn't even guaranteed. While the data may indicate that, we still need to get there first. 

IMO, I think some of the late winter/early spring responses within the Arctic and stratosphere held so much weight on the northern hemisphere pattern that we're still dealing with those impacts. 

[Typhoon Tip]

64, mainly sun sky with post-card cu

utterly opposite condition to this morning, whence it was 48 and light rain. 

[Torch Tiger]

Everything is awesome! 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Everything is awesome! 

haha...   I'd say at least not totally sucking prison balls at shiv point -

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

haha...   I'd say at least not totally sucking prison balls at shiv point -

Yeah true...going forward looks great though.  No looking back

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah true...going forward looks great though.  No looking back

You're one of the one's that can relate to my interest in monitoring heat in the summer ... heh, I mean shit. It's not like it's part of weather, huh

But 12z EPS mean, centered on June 9, came in yet a little more impressive with the over top heat look.  Weather this is a flash (pun intended), a heatwave per se, or evolves to something else are obviously notwithstanding at this range, but it's being monitored.

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah that period has been looking good for at least a couple days of low 90's

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're one of the one's that can relate to my interest in monitoring heat in the summer ... heh, I mean shit. It's not like it's part of weather, huh

But 12z EPS mean, centered on June 9, came in yet a little more impressive with the over top heat look.  Weather this is a flash (pun intended), a heatwave per se, or evolves to something else are obviously notwithstanding at this range, but it's being monitored.

850 anomaly temps are actually near to slight BN on the 9th on EPS. Might be like what we have today with cooler anomalies hanging down in SNE.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Ground level.

[Torch Tiger]

[Damage In Tolland]

Summer begins Wednesday with 80+ moving forward ! Finally 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer begins Wednesday with 80+ moving forward ! Finally 

Until next week

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Until next week

That grimy looks like it sits up over NNE or maybe CNE. leaving us warner and more humid. Nino Climo it looks like 

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer begins Wednesday with 80+ moving forward ! Finally 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe meeting a new wife?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Should be a nice and warm day

Definitely looks warm. Thought I saw rain though

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

850 anomaly temps are actually near to slight BN on the 9th on EPS. Might be like what we have today with cooler anomalies hanging down in SNE.

 

I wouldn't have any problem with the notion that this is too cold for it's own deep layer mean, a failing not uncommon to ensembles at this range.   

Aside, the idea was 'modestly impressive'  - we're not looking for a UK redux just yet.