Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[dendrite]

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Couple of nice bolts close by yesterday evening. 

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So I have a question that someone relates to the June topic. I just posted in the winter form for this upcoming winter as well. 

I saw a few different posts now from different people saying they're expecting a Modoki El nino for the upcoming summer and winter. From what I'm reading, that gives us a completely opposite effect of a typical super El Nino. Meaning, not as hot of a summer, not as suppressed when it comes to hurricanes, and a colder stormy year pattern for the winter. Figured more people are in this current June discussion topic than they are right now in the winter discussion ( that's been crickets, as it should be )

At least right now, nothing screams the developing EL Nino is a modoki, if anything it looks like we would be looking at a mixed or basin wide event given the strong anomalies in the (hostile) 1.2 region and Nino 4 region. Now, what would happen towards the end of the EL Nino event is a transition to a modoki EL Nino, which isn't uncommon for a weakening stronger EL Nino as region 1.2 tends to be the first to cool. 

In terms of impacts on the continental U.S. summer, Tip and I had some dialogue on this a few weeks back but I don't think there is much of a correlation and there are drivers. EL Nino's tend to not become fully established until late summer or even early Fall. An argument can be made that while the PAC is in the transitioning mode and this may have a quick and direct impact on the Hadley Cell but there atmospheric response can be quite often lagged to how the ocean is evolving and there are other factors to consider. 

Also, if we're just focusing on the impacts on summer to stronger EL Nino events, the sample size really isn't that great and at this point a strong event isn't even guaranteed. While the data may indicate that, we still need to get there first. 

IMO, I think some of the late winter/early spring responses within the Arctic and stratosphere held so much weight on the northern hemisphere pattern that we're still dealing with those impacts. 

[Typhoon Tip]

64, mainly sun sky with post-card cu

utterly opposite condition to this morning, whence it was 48 and light rain.