May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CT starts Wednesday 

I hope so.  Might not even hit 70F here Weds.  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hope so.  Might not even hit 70F here Weds.  

GFS is 50's

[ineedsnow]

Euro also 50's wednesday

[ineedsnow]

Euro and GFS hit 80 on Wednesday the 10th

[Damage In Tolland]

Lmao looking at op  run print outs for temps . Hammers latest forecast . Looks wintry

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Sounds like summer climo

I was talking to Scott about this yesterday ... there's a non-linear signal for ridge eruption along 90 to 100W coming from the numerical telecon spread  (convergent), between the 6th and 10th or so.   That's still the case.   Since then, we're getting ensemble means burgeoning.  This being the 12z EPS mean centered on 270 

Notice the UK heat node's migrated to Scandinavia ... This appears to be a complete rotation of the base-line wave#.  

I suspect the operational more linear indicators may "detect" this physical constructive interference and start emerging a better heat signal.  I'm also finding it interesting that the CPC's decided to flip the signal to an 'over-top' heat suggestion in their D8-14.   They may be on to this.  This signal would be above the climate signal - even though it's funny to zap Weatherwiz... I don't mean to devalue the necessity to do that -

[Torch Tiger]

Stein dead and buried on the 18z gfs

[bristolri_wx]

Looking at guidance I think the storm Fri/Sat will produce more QPF over a wider area than is currently being forecasted.

[Damage In Tolland]

[Damage In Tolland]

Pope’s area likely worst spot in all of New England Saturday . Will need hoody with shorts and flip flops poping wheelies 

[ineedsnow]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lmao looking at op  run print outs for temps . Hammers latest forecast . Looks wintry

eep trough over the eastern CONUS will have a series of stronger
embedded shortwaves as it builds S. First in the series will feature
heights as low as 534 dm, or about 3-5 sigma below climatology!
upper level disturbance will also feature quite the cold pool
with 850mb temps around 0C. In terms of sensible weather,
Saturday will be quite a cold and raw day with highs in the
upper 40s to low 50s for much of the interior. Some guidance
including the NAM even shows a non-zero chance for a few
snowflakes under heavier precip in the Worcester Hills and
Berkshires. Any wintry precipitation would be confined to the
coldest part of the cold pool and with heavier precipitation
rates. In short, this will not be widespread wintry event.

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS a bit more wintry for  Saturday