Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Self-respect?

how

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

Pretty much....I would push back a hair with regard to snowfall, though...1982 was just about normal.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The issue I have regarding optimism for this winter is the more fruitful super El Niño analogs are still AN to well AN temp and slightly BN snow. A middle ground solution between the best case analogs and worst case would still be a ratter. I don’t see a path to a good winter with super El Niño, I see a path to a non ratter, but an actual good winter no.

I havent followed this thread like I have the enso thread in the main forum, but honestly, I haven't seen anyone be optimistic for a "good winter". Its weird because I keep seeing posts like this cautioning optimism (rightly so) but I never see any optimistic posts in the first place .

What i see is multiple reasonable posts explaining why a subpar winter doesn't mean it will be all-time bad despite an all-time nino. The trolls misread this and eat it up but I think everyone is prepared for a subpar winter and hoping for the best. Its going to snow and its going to snow many times in northern places. But when you add everything up in April, it very likely will have snowed less than average. Its a simple concept. None of us know exactly when the cold, snowy, or torchy periods will be, so theres still always the unknowns of what will go surprisingly right and what will go frustratingly wrong.

[stadiumwave]

https://x.com/JuliusSubovic/status/2098085471540695257

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-

[forkyfork]

14 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I havent followed this thread like I have the enso thread in the main forum, but honestly, I haven't seen anyone be optimistic for a "good winter". Its weird because I keep seeing posts like this cautioning optimism (rightly so) but I never see any optimistic posts in the first place .

What i see is multiple reasonable posts explaining why a subpar winter doesn't mean it will be all-time bad despite an all-time nino. The trolls misread this and eat it up but I think everyone is prepared for a subpar winter and hoping for the best. Its going to snow and its going to snow many times in northern places. But when you add everything up in April, it very likely will have snowed less than average. Its a simple concept. None of us know exactly when the cold, snowy, or torchy periods will be, so theres still always the unknowns of what will go surprisingly right and what will go frustratingly wrong.

you all act like the unknowns could lean in the snowier direction but not in the warmer direction. feb 98 in detroit was +8.7 with zero snow btw

[michsnowfreak]

59 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you all act like the unknowns could lean in the snowier direction but not in the warmer direction. feb 98 in detroit was +8.7 with zero snow btw

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. 

Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory. 

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-

I think I’d like that ridging north. Visions of garbage airmasses dancing in my head with that. 

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. 

Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory. 

yes. you set an all time low record with an east based super nino and this event is even stronger and more east based

[CoastalWx]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’d like that ridging north. Visions of garbage airmasses dancing in my head with that. 

It’s either that, or it’s showing above normal heights due to Pacific puke air.  I’d rather the former.

[forkyfork]

56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im well aware it can go both ways. And ive said many times I expect a warm (relative to climo) December. YOU act like it can't go either way. Feb 1998 with a trace of snow at Detroit set an all time low record, but the winter as a whole still saw 23.4" snow and 30 days with 1"+ snowcover. 

Strong Ninos since 1878 have a range at Detroit of 20-45" snow, and I think 30-35" is a reasonable guess for this winter. Below avg, but not record territory. 

never forget that your area is ground zero for the flames of the nino torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’d like that ridging north. Visions of garbage airmasses dancing in my head with that. 

It's a DJF mean.

Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast.

Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you all act like the unknowns could lean in the snowier direction but not in the warmer direction. feb 98 in detroit was +8.7 with zero snow btw

Who is doing that? Cite the name specifically?? All I see are expectations for a warm season with a heightened risk of a big snow event or two. Obviously the season could easily fail to produce like 1998, but it's not very compelling to discuss that in depth on a weather forum. The upside if we get lucky here in SNE is near normal  snowfall and above normal snowfall in the mid atl.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

yes. you set an all time low record with an east based super nino and this event is even stronger and more east based

An all time low for ONE month. Not a whole season.

[michsnowfreak]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

never forget that your area is ground zero for the flames of the nino torch

Lmao. Actually the upper midwest is ground zero. But its all relative to normal. A Nino torch here is still solidly colder than your average and is usually because of 1 torch month. You can wish snow away all you want. It snows in MI no matter what.

2023-24: 34.9F 
2015-16: 33.5F 
1997-98: 33.9F 
1982-83: 32.5F
1972-73: 27.8F
1877-78: 31.5F

[forkyfork]

52 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. Actually the upper midwest is ground zero. But its all relative to normal. A Nino torch here is still solidly colder than your average and is usually because of 1 torch month. You can wish snow away all you want. It snows in MI no matter what.

2023-24: 34.9F 
2015-16: 33.5F 
1997-98: 33.9F 
1982-83: 32.5F
1972-73: 27.8F
1877-78: 31.5F

sorry for hijacking your optimism 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

sorry for hijacking your optimism 

Its optimistic to expect a subpar winter? Or optimistic to assume its going to snow in Michigan as it does dozens of times every winter?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Mid January 1983 I had 20.2" followed by a frigid week, including a day with a high of 10 and low of -5...then in February, I had a 17" and 20.3" event in the same week, for a peak depth of 26". I would sign up for that in a heart beat and think it's totally feasible this season in short bursts.

[ma blizzard]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its optimistic to expect a subpar winter? Or optimistic to assume its going to snow in Michigan as it does dozens of times every winter?

tough when the trolling doesn’t have the desired effect

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a DJF mean.

Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast.

Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.

 

Yeah, that ridge in Western Canada would work. And I know you know this, but those reds in Canada with a trough pretty much mean much warmer than normal Temps there, but that’s still pretty cold by our standards obviously.

 

I think some people see that and think blocking, but that’s a trough there. So that just means warmer air.

[CoastalWx]

The other thing that scares me a little bit is how that trough pretty much centers on the Bering Sea. Ideally, you want that a little further south of the Aleutians.

 

Anyways, not trying to be negative just a couple things that sort of makes me pause a bit. But on the good side as I said that Canadian ridge would help in the west, and that also screams an active pattern so we take what we can get I guess.

[bristolri_wx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a DJF mean.

Worked for Feb 1983, but I agree it's precarious for the coast.

Here is Feb....I think we have seasonable cold here with that ridging out west.

 

I feel like a DJF mean is going to be deceiving this Winter. There’s going to be a lot of fluctuation from November straight through to March even though the overall trend is warm and wet.

My expectations are low enough where anything will be a pleasant surprise.

Regardless of temps and snowfall there’s a high probability of it being an interesting winter season for weather to follow. I don’t see a repeat 2015-2016 happening which was just total boring shit weather almost bell to bell.

[CoastalWx]

35 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I feel like a DJF mean is going to be deceiving this Winter. There’s going to be a lot of fluctuation from November straight through to March even though the overall trend is warm and wet.

My expectations are low enough where anything will be a pleasant surprise.

Regardless of temps and snowfall there’s a high probability of it being an interesting winter season for weather to follow. I don’t see a repeat 2015-2016 happening which was just total boring shit weather almost bell to bell.

Somehow managed normal snows that winter. April snow events helped. Feb storm was fun too. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

tough when the trolling doesn’t have the desired effect

I’m not sure why anybody engages with the same poster who has posted “warm and rainy” a dozen times in this thread.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, that ridge in Western Canada would work. And I know you know this, but those reds in Canada with a trough pretty much mean much warmer than normal Temps there, but that’s still pretty cold by our standards obviously.

 

I think some people see that and think blocking, but that’s a trough there. So that just means warmer air.

Yea, it means no arctic source, but the airmass can work in January-Feb.