Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Use of sensible weather analogs will pose a unique challenge this year given the rapid state of flux throughout the hemisphere....you can't take them at face value. -EPO predominated Winter 2018-2019, so given that this season should have a +EPO, flipping the anomalies may provide some value. Coolest se, warmest high plains.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I will probably have much grinding of teeth, with regards to precipitation type, between mby and the hills around me but I think a decent N & W of RT2 winter is inbound. 

[stadiumwave]

On 9/8/2026 at 7:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why isn't it H5? 200mb is somewhat less helpful.

That would be a question for Paul. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sept. EURO seasonal has DJF snowfall about 9" below average inside of rt 128, and 6" below average outside. I have no issue with that forecast. Western New England is 4-5" below.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Makes sense to me...entirely reasonable.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not bad at all for down here 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not bad at all for down here 

It's easy to look at the color scheme and want to take a plunge off of the Tobin, but it's not bad at all and fits with the more fruitful super El Nino scenarios.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's easy to look at the color scheme and want to take a plunge off of the Tobin, but it's not bad at all and fits with the more fruitful super El Nino scenarios.

 Congrats DC?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 Congrats DC?

Congrats Apps and OHRV.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO seems to favor the interior for January, kind of like 1987 and 2003, and then a coastal track for February...the type that @dryslothates, which gets shunted eastward by a block, as the Canadian ridge intensifies and presses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I kind of feel dirty for saying this, but December doesn't look awful on the EURO....it starts that ridge up by HB, near where the basin-wide composite has it, before it slides ESE and presses as the season evolves. January looks the most hostile IMHO, especially for the coast.

Pretty damn near climo snowfall...almost looks like the Feb storm track.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats Apps and OHRV.

True

El ninos are better the further south you go . I wouldnt be shocked if they do well especially if blocking develops. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...

@Typhoon Tipand I were speculating about this as a potential "unicorn" scenario...

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is also interesting is that the EURO has trended stronger with the Canadian ridge centered near the east shore of HB, as the it adjusts to the unprecedented magnitude of El Nino, but the position of that Aleutian low remains dead-nuts on that of the August run. IOW, it hasn't trended into any more of an east-based configuration. This isn't what I would expect to see if you are looking for a season 6-month long fall.