Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[WxWatcher007]

 

 

 

And 500mb

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Absolute ass

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolute assey

It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Sept 2026:

 

Sept 2023:

 

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not concerned about that at all. We'll need it the year, IMHO....will be the difference between infrastructure-paralyzing paste and wind-swept sheets of rain.

That is absurd for February....like 2010, stuff.

 

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is I don't buy it given the magnitude and orientation of El Niño along with the QBO and solar cycle...it was kind of doing the same thing in Sept. 2023.

 

 

 

Feb 2024 ended up with a +1.09 NAO.... +.76 DJFM mean NAO, so it whiffed on that.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all? 

Doesn't appear as though it will have a major impact:

To see how Anak Krakatau's potential output stacks up against historical climate-altering eruptions, see the table below:

 

Volcano / Eruption Event	Approximate \(SO_{2}\) Mass Released	Global Climate Impact
1991 Mount Pinatubo	~20,000,000 tons	Decreased global temperatures by 0.5 °C for 2 years
1883 Krakatau Eruption	~20,000,000 tons of Sulfur	Decreased global temperatures by 1.2 °C
2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai	~400,000 tons	Minimal cooling (dominated by historic water vapor injection)
2018 Anak Krakatau Eruption	~173,000 tons	Localized atmospheric/weather effects only
Typical Anak Krakatau Daily Output	~190 tons/day	No measurable climate impact

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't appear as though it will have a major impact:

 

To see how Anak Krakatau's potential output stacks up against historical climate-altering eruptions, see the table below:

 

Volcano / Eruption Event	Approximate \(SO_{2}\) Mass Released	Global Climate Impact
1991 Mount Pinatubo	~20,000,000 tons	Decreased global temperatures by 0.5 °C for 2 years
1883 Krakatau Eruption	~20,000,000 tons of Sulfur	Decreased global temperatures by 1.2 °C
2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai	~400,000 tons	Minimal cooling (dominated by historic water vapor injection)
2018 Anak Krakatau Eruption	~173,000 tons	Localized atmospheric/weather effects only
Typical Anak Krakatau Daily Output	~190 tons/day	No measurable climate impact

this table says 2018? In any case, I saw a report that concluded Anak Krakatau's recent eruption plume went only 13% the height of Pinatubo, so likely talking about a substantially smaller impact if that figure is correct. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

this table says 2018? In any case, I saw a report that concluded Anak Krakatau's recent eruption plume went only 13% the height of Pinatubo, so likely talking about a substantially smaller impact if that figure is correct. 

No, the last column...2018 is a different eruption.

[Cobalt]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, the last column...2018 is a different eruption.

Unless im misreading, that row's title says "typical Anak Krakatau Output", as in likely just averaging out its emissions over time. Doesn't look like there's estimated figures on 2026's eruption just yet 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Unless im misreading, that row's title says "typical Anak Krakatau Output", as in likely just averaging out its emissions over time. Doesn't look like there's estimated figures on 2026's eruption just yet 

My bad, you're right. It seems like it was an eruption of moderate magnitude at best, though. I wouldn't anticipate major impacts. This is what I based that assumption on, which I should have pasted in addition to that chart for added context.

How its Current Scale and Potential Rankings Compare

• Compared to its History: The current eruption has blasted an ash column 15 kilometers (50,000 feet) high into the atmosphere. This height mirrors the paroxysmal 2018 Anak Krakatau eruption, which ultimately released roughly 173,000 metric tons (173 kt) of \(SO_{2}\). If the 2026 eruption sustains this intensity, it could reach similar levels. [1, 2, 3]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Seems like this is similar to the 2018 eruption, which had a pretty trivial impact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No bueno...this is what Kev was getting at....if you're wondering why the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO, this is why.

[Damage In Tolland]

59 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No bueno...this is what Kev was getting at....if you're wondering why the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO, this is why.

It’s like a +++ EPO . A Viagra hard on that won’t go down 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s like a +++ EPO . A Viagra hard on that won’t go down 

Thing is, just as it likely overdoing the NAO, it could also be overdoing the EPO is we don't pop as large of a GOA as it indicates....which is possible given the residual cool ENSO residue.

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't appear as though it will have a major impact:

 

To see how Anak Krakatau's potential output stacks up against historical climate-altering eruptions, see the table below:

 

Volcano / Eruption Event	Approximate \(SO_{2}\) Mass Released	Global Climate Impact
1991 Mount Pinatubo	~20,000,000 tons	Decreased global temperatures by 0.5 °C for 2 years
1883 Krakatau Eruption	~20,000,000 tons of Sulfur	Decreased global temperatures by 1.2 °C
2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai	~400,000 tons	Minimal cooling (dominated by historic water vapor injection)
2018 Anak Krakatau Eruption	~173,000 tons	Localized atmospheric/weather effects only
Typical Anak Krakatau Daily Output	~190 tons/day	No measurable climate impact

The hype on social media is ridiculous.  Krakatoa's current eruption is *minor* overall.  You get a bunch of these sized eruptions every year across the globe.  Nothing to see here.

"Oh, but Krakatoa is famous!"  Yes, it is, but that does not mean it will do it again.  Typical clickbait using familiarity as a draw.

It erupted significantly larger than this in late 2018 and generated a significant tsunami, and still nothing of consequence globally.

And not all eruptions are the same. You need a significant amount of SO2 for cooling.  So you can have a VEI-5 (minimal for any sig global impacts) and not get much.  Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.
 

[stadiumwave]

NMME

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The hype on social media is ridiculous.  Krakatoa's current eruption is *minor* overall.  You get a bunch of these sized eruptions every year across the globe.  Nothing to see here.

"Oh, but Krakatoa is famous!"  Yes, it is, but that does not mean it will do it again.  Typical clickbait using familiarity as a draw.

It erupted significantly larger than this in late 2018 and generated a significant tsunami, and still nothing of consequence globally.

And not all eruptions are the same. You need a significant amount of SO2 for cooling.  So you can have a VEI-5 (minimal for any sig global impacts) and not get much.  Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.
 

Yea, the VW effectively squashed the SO2 ink association with Tonga.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Cosgrove sure has an interesting take...heh. Seems to be going with a CANSIPS type outcome with massive AK/western Canadian and CONUS ridging. Big -EPO/PNA. 

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Hunga-Tonga actually warmed the globe w/ a distinct delayed temp spike in 2023-24 as it ejected an enormous amount of WV into the stratosphere, which is normally very dry.
 

 I’m not disagreeing with you because I’m, myself, quite suspicious about the 1/15/22 Hunga-Tonga causing that delayed temp spike earlier in ‘23 than what the ‘23 El Niño should have caused. But if you were to post that in the CC forum, you’d get a lot of opposition or at least doubt based on past Hunga-Tonga discussions in there. Several folks there have downplayed it because they think the warming effect was minimal/far lower than that early ‘23 temp spike and they backed it up with at least one source fwiw.

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove sure has an interesting take...heh. Seems to be going with a CANSIPS type outcome with massive AK/western Canadian and CONUS ridging. Big -EPO/PNA. 

Dudes struggled for years . Kind of a mini JB

[MarcmmKU]

3 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

NMME

 

rip

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dudes struggled for years . Kind of a mini JB

Everyone struggles from time to time time, but not everyone admits it...he is one,

[40/70 Benchmark]

53 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

rip

RIP as it pertains to a cold seasons with consistent retention, but a mild map with extremely high precipitation in the mean leaves snowfall pretty wide-open...aside from probably being able to eliminate the prospects for a top 10 season north of NYC.

[Damage In Tolland]

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That actually isn't that bad....has you like 4-5" below average and me 5-6". I think we'd all take that. Makes more sense to the than the robust CANSIPS and early EURO run.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1 storm can do wonders. Get ready.

[stadiumwave]

JMA DJF 500mb

[Prismshine Productions]

That actually isn't that bad....has you like 4-5" below average and me 5-6". I think we'd all take that. Makes more sense to the than the robust CANSIPS and early EURO run.

-5 for me is still 50+" so would take in a heartbeat

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[bristolri_wx]

Any analogs show up with strong El Nino’s with extraordinarily low Atlantic ACE’s the preceding tropical season?

[Baroclinic Zone]

I speculate there will be lot of wish casting, meltdowns, and season cancellations.