Brian5671 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold? Typically cold highs with NE flow and especially if there is precip. It's a climo feature at some point in Spring....it's just that some Springs are worse than others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 65 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold? Heh... we can't look at it this way. We can't categorize and package these up as go or no, based on seasons. If there is blocking in the right place, it will be cold in July. Nothing more or less. People have ( likely ) made conjecture like this in the past, but honestly ...we have to take it case by case. There may be more blocking in winter then summer. Okay, but if the blocking is over eastern Canada... not sure summer protects us from cooler anomalies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 67 70 next door at KFIT with rounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry Look at those d10 and d14 graphs...they've been verifying on the upper end of the model spread for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Look at those d10 and d14 graphs...they've been verifying on the upper end of the model spread for awhile now. Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 19 hours ago, MJO812 said: I miss snow I don't want to even entertain snow for 6 months.. After Halloween it's welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago SST's in Cape Cod bay are still in the low 40's. Going to be a while before anyone is safe along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter Also, there is much more to it than what the charts show. Structure/placement of the anomalies are more important than the raw value itself. A -NAO/-AO doesn't always equate to blocking. In that graphic, the NAO is largely forecast to be more of a weak signal with larger spread towards the end of guidance (typical), albeit the AO is forecast to be a bit more in the way of negative. Based on an evolution of the 500 pattern (at least on 12z GFS) one could argue the greatest potential for cooler temperatures associated with any negative AO would be northern Plains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 57.6° - Not bad if we can approach 60 That extra 5-7 degrees in this sun makes a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You'll door for sure. For a late evening gone by late morning? Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago We 70 Had an afternoon bite at Dovah’s new rivah front. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago DDH 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 75 ...73 at KFIT about a 7 to 10F MET bust. Brian can you confirm that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wonder if we're getting some d-slope compression off the ORH hills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter Weeklies have 4 weeks in a row BN starting the 20th following the Neg Nao theme with well below normal heights for New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah... it really just looks like those long lead products are assuming the winter pattern never stops. I'm not necessarily offended by persistence - it is what it is. The onus is on Earth to change it. LOL Fwiw ... not that our druthers have any say in matter, but having neggie anoms in the 3rd and 4th week getting toward the arrival of he solar max isn't a terrible reality, necessarily, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weeklies have 4 weeks in a row BN starting the 20th following the Neg Nao theme with well below normal heights for New England That will bust with the MJO to phase 8 to 1, with 1 being the warmest for this time of year in New England. You’ll probably see the cold anoms in the mid Atlantic, Long Island to del Marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 72.0/43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago +1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: 72.0/43 I'm actually surprised there's that much water in the air this early in the year. huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Some of the American long lead products are doing the same thing, though. heh...I've never been fan of the weeklies. Not gonna start being a fan of the CFS2v tickled shits whatever it is, either. I've found that beyond 10 days, they are not significantly more dependable than just running the regular ensembles members out to kingdom come. Until a D19 long lead is shockingly on point, I'l defer to those for entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually surprised there's that much water in the air this early in the year. huh I may be running a little high on the Davis, but the backyard is just beginning to dry out. Most of the area is U30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ha...wow, add the Canadian Extended to the list... NO summer for you, ONE YEAR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A bit too strong of a S flow here. Only 67. GON 48, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I may be running a little high on the Davis, but the backyard is just beginning to dry out. Most of the area is U30s. mmm. I'd say your 43 is believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago mmm those products are suss. Not just because they are way the hell and gone out in time, either. I noticed looking at the Euro Weeklies and the Can Extended, they are showing cool anomalies precisely everywhere the climate models, and verification over the last 10 years, have been actually going the other way from late Aprils thru May. That's a bit of a creepy coincidence where these runs are targeting all the hot problem regions like that ...cooking cutting the known hot zones for cooler anomalies - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago So does anyone know how these multi week products are derived? You should know if you use them... heh. Kinda like oh, I dunno, AI GFS. I'm just wondering in pure speculation if these may get increasingly more climate weighted out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The weeklies in mid Feb showed a cold March-instead we got a coast to coast torch. Take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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