Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry

That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold?

Typically cold highs with NE flow and especially if there is precip. It's a climo feature at some point in Spring....it's just that some Springs are worse than others. 

[CoastalWx]

65 here.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's the other thing-even a -NAO in late April does it really bring the cold?

Heh... we can't look at it this way.   We can't categorize and package these up as go or no, based on seasons.  If there is blocking in the right place, it will be cold in July.  Nothing more or less.  

People have ( likely ) made conjecture like this in the past, but honestly ...we have to take it case by case.   There may be more blocking in winter then summer.   Okay, but if the blocking is over eastern Canada... not sure summer protects us from cooler anomalies.

[Typhoon Tip]

67

70 next door at KFIT with rounding

[dendrite]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those indicies charts have been awful all winter and spring. They’re not usable to make any type of predictions or forecast. Blocking in Mayorch can lead to big EC ridging and warm/dry

Look at those d10 and d14 graphs...they've been verifying on the upper end of the model spread for awhile now.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Look at those d10 and d14 graphs...they've been verifying on the upper end of the model spread for awhile now.

Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I miss snow

I don't want to even entertain snow for 6 months.. After Halloween it's welcome back 

[SouthCoastMA]

SST's in Cape Cod bay are still in the low 40's. Going to be a while before anyone is safe along the coast. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter 

Also, there is much more to it than what the charts show. Structure/placement of the anomalies are more important than the raw value itself. A -NAO/-AO doesn't always equate to blocking. In that graphic, the NAO is largely forecast to be more of a weak signal with larger spread towards the end of guidance (typical), albeit the AO is forecast to be a bit more in the way of negative. Based on an evolution of the 500 pattern (at least on 12z GFS) one could argue the greatest potential for cooler temperatures associated with any negative AO would be northern Plains.

[SouthCoastMA]

57.6° - Not bad if we can approach 60

That extra 5-7 degrees in this sun makes a difference

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You'll door for sure.

For a late evening gone by late morning? Who cares. 

[jbenedet]

We 70

Had an afternoon bite at Dovah’s new rivah front.

Noice.

[CT Valley Snowman]

DDH 75

[Typhoon Tip]

75 

...73 at KFIT

about a 7 to 10F MET bust.   Brian can you confirm that? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wonder if we're getting some d-slope compression off the ORH hills

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. They’re straight trash . Indicies mean Jack dick once out of Winter 

Weeklies have 4 weeks in a row BN starting the 20th following the Neg Nao theme with well below normal heights for New England