2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

Haha, yeah, Fay just got decapitated. Oh well...

[NorthHillsWx]

Valiant effort. Next. 

[wdrag]

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt!  So good to hear from you.  We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum.  Hope all well with you.

My opinion.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast.  Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially.  Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now.  Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

[MANDA]

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane.  Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. 

As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. 

This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. 

This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation. 

[NEG NAO]

as of today - most of the significant impact from the coastal LP will be further east BUT this could still change - stay tuned !

[rclab]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Unlike the responses from well versed forum members, I can only offer that I am very happy to see a post from you. Stay well and please if possible visit again. As always …. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane.  Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

We stand a legitimate chance of no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. 

[Amped]

15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

Futility achieved. Only 1914 didn't have a cane at this point.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, Amped said:

Futility achieved. Only 1914 didn't have a cane at this point.

This short paper from 2007 (attached) from Chris Landsea of NHC summaries well the issues w/ "missing" TCs in the Atlantic.

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900

From the paper:
In particular, Landsea et al. [2004] esti-
mated an undercount bias of zero to six
tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and
1885 and zero to four per year between 1886
and 1910. These undercounts roughly take
into account the typical size of tropical
cyclones, the density of shipping tracks over
the Atlantic basin, and the amount of popu-
lated coastline. As one goes back further in
time, the numbers of ships and shipping
lanes decreases and fewer people live in the
tropical and subtropical coastal regions.
These factors make it increasingly likely that
some tropical cyclones would not be
counted the farther back in time examined.


I like how he compared 1933 to 2005, which is #1 and #2 for most ACE in a season.  Look at the gap out in the cntrl and ern Atlantic.  The 20 storms in 1933 I bet is at least 5-8 too low.  We saw what happened in 2005 when everything went "right."  We were getting late- season oddballs Oct-Dec often cntrl and ern Atlantic, and that season redefined what we call a TC and expanded what was possible!

He said that as to hurricanes from 1851 to about 1940, anywhere from 0 to 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic were likely missed in any given year, w/ the avg being likely close to 1.  Meaning that 1914 probably had a hurricane, just never detected.  When you see something like Fay recently, and tiny systems like Oscar even when not in the middle of nowhere, you see how the probability is quite high here.

It is fascinating stuff to look at history and do "sleuthing!"  The Hurricane Reanalysis Project displays this best.  I wish other agencies would do this for TC basin worldwide.  There is *lot* of data out there that could be gathered, analyzed, and much to be found. 

And you do not have to go the far back.  Full geostationary sat coverage did not exist in the western Pacific until 1987 and not until 1989 over the IO.  However, for over 25 years up to this point, we had plenty of polar imagery, and as I mentioned, the delays in transmission of polar imagery in those days was several hours or more, so it could not be used operationally to assign proper TC intensity.  It's the main reason why if you want to look at trends for TCs in the IO, you really can't start until 1990, and by extension, global TCs are well.  The SIO is the second most active basin globally for ACE per year.
 

landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

[vortex95]

I just posted this on another forum. Food for thought for the upcoming E Coast storm!

For several days now, the global models have been indicating an atypically strong

non-tropical low for September developing off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic/New England

coasts by this weekend.  High winds, coastal flooding, and excessive rains are 

becoming more likely, especially in southern New England.

 

Some models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, are showing a strong warm seclusion

evolving when the low slows down and stalls for a time not far S of New England.  I 

attached the 850, 700, and 500 heights/temp valid 09z September 27 from the 22/00z 
ECMWF that clearly shows the warm seclusion.

 

SSTs S of New England are running anywhere between 2-4 C above average and are

22-25 C in the region where the low is forecast to slow/stall, more than enough for

subtropical development, and with such SSTs we have seen full tropical transition 

before.

 

Now I know this sounds like I am getting ahead of myself here, but one has to 

proactively think in the abstract and outside the box here, especially 
when it comes to atypical/outlier events forecast and their impacts.
 

I know of no case where a strong non-tropical low transitioned to subtropical or 

tropical in this area of the Atlantic so close to the Mid-Atlantic or New England 

coasts.  There was an intense non-tropical low that impacted this region in October

2021 that eventually became TS Wanda, but not until far out of sea in the central 

Atlantic.

 

The conundrum I see is that if such a transition occurs, it may be while significant

non-tropical land impacts from wind/rain/coastal flooding are ongoing.  So that 

implies non-tropical wind warnings would have to be switched to tropical wind 

warnings.  This presents a problem in messaging, among other things.

 

We have policy/procedures in place when a tropical system transitions to PT/ET  --

the capability to continue pre-existing tropical wind warnings, but what about when

you have an ET low going to subtropical/tropical?  There is no sensible weather

difference between gale/storm warnings and tropical storm warnings, but a 

significant amount of the public does not realize or understand that.  Going from

an unnamed system to a named system?  Well, I don't have to say how the

media (social and otherwise) reacts when a subtropical/tropical system is named.

But the meteorology operationally just can't be ignored either.  A system is what

it is.

 

This is further complicated by the fact that days before non-tropical low develops, a 

strong pressure gradient from high pressure over southeastern Canada will result in

gale force E and NE winds as early as late today over the marine zone waters off the 

Mid-Atlantic and New England coast.
 

In my opinion, the above is a non-trivial from a logistical and social point-of-view if

such a non-tropical to ST/T transition occur in said region.  A similar modern day 

event that did not fit or work within any current policies/produces at the time occurred 

with Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, which was also this very same region.  The 

ante this time is not forecast to be on the level of Sandy, but nevertheless is significant.

[bigtenfan]

Doesn’t this distinction between tropical and non tropical damage become an insurance deductible issue for coastal homeowners?

I remember that there were some people who thought that the so called transition from tropical to non tropical by Sandy just prior to landfall in Brigantine NJ was more insurance/ politics related than science related.


.

[Windspeed]

Doesn’t this distinction between tropical and non tropical damage become an insurance deductible issue for coastal homeowners?

I remember that there were some people who thought that the so called transition from tropical to non tropical by Sandy just prior to landfall in Brigantine NJ was more insurance/ politics related than science related.


.

Regardless of the inadequacies of insurance policy, Sandy transitioned prior to landfall, and this was even confirmed in post-analysis. The mets at the NHC aren't going to get involved in politics, and they do not undermine their scientific work for the benefit of the private sector despite any conspiracies to the contrary. Granted, you didn't present this as your own opinion, but that of some others, but let us squash that discussion before it begins.