2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[MANDA]

Looks like we finish August with .9 ACE points and a feeble 3.6 is the 2026 total to date. 

We'll see that September can deliver.  Looks quiet for the next 5-7 days as least.

 

[vortex95]

On 8/26/2026 at 8:50 AM, Windspeed said:

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

Having an exceptional pattern the other way (i.e. very inactive) is of high value b/c it allows us to see the absolute extremes at the other end and what goes on literally that causes it.  Sure, we know very strong El Nino does this to the Atlantic, but not every very strong El Nino is the same and we only have 4 other El Ninos since 1950 on this scale, so odds that when this El Nino is done, we will have witness patterns we have not seen before in the satellite age.

Knowing what suppresses TCs I would argue is just as important as to what favors them.  And 2024 and 2025 w/o El Nino, we had some previously unseen patterns that ripped the heart out of the peak climo part of the season and resulted in busted over-forecasts.  Either it was unusually strong and persistent SALs/TUTTs or the ITCZ displaced unusually far N into the Sahara, and brought to light was the "Atlantic Nina" and its possible role!
 

[vortex95]

On 8/28/2026 at 12:07 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

What's even more interesting about how hostile this season has been is that what does develop barely lasts for more than a day. Arthur, Christobal and Dolly all lasted a single day. What does make it through the grinder can barely even last if it does form.

It makes you wonder prior to the satellite era and modern practices, season that were record quiet, like 1914 (one storm), It is highly likely there were some others just like we have seen this season so far.  Short-lived, weak TSs that we simply did not have capability of detecting them well or at all way back.

But it does not really impact the climo, at least when you go by ACE.  10 weak, short-lived TSs don't even come close to a single, long-tracked, intense Cabo Verde hurricane for total ACE!

[cptcatz]

The UK has been hinting at this system forming in front of Dolly along the SE coast. It was kind of a mystery until now but check out this satellite presentation. Looks like it was on to something.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z UKMET for 2nd full run in a row has a TC originating in the W MDR well out in the run. 0Z had a TD but 12Z has a strengthening mid-grade TS as it recurves well away from any landmass due to a notable upper trough per H5 maps:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.8N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2026 120 15.8N 52.0W 1011 25
0000UTC 05.09.2026 132 16.9N 55.0W 1010 30
1200UTC 05.09.2026 144 17.8N 57.6W 1008 35
0000UTC 06.09.2026 156 19.3N 59.2W 1006 41
1200UTC 06.09.2026 168 20.8N 59.6W 1002 48

 The 0Z UKMET (as an TD) and CMC still have this recurving TC.

[codfishsnowman]

I only check in here from time to time but over the years I have noticed of all the big US land falling hurricanes hardly anyone discusses Camille.  I have seen a few documentaries recently and although the better data was in its infancy, this hurricane seems like she could stand solidly against not only any other land falling cat 5s but cat 5s period

Just wondering thats all

[cptcatz]

Euro and GFS both out to mid September with no tropical development. The question may start getting real soon... Can we go a whole season without a hurricane?

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Euro and GFS both out to mid September with no tropical development. The question may start getting real soon... Can we go a whole season without a hurricane?

Of course it’s possible. I’d put odds at ~25% as of now. Based on the fact that none are shown on current models, this being progged to be the strongest Nino on record, and the modern analog 1997, which had its last TC become a H on Sept 4th, it’s a realistic possibility though still not anywhere near a likelihood this early in the season. That’s why I’m roughly estimating a 25% chance.

[NorthHillsWx]

I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season