On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The backdoor starts coming through later this morning. 1mph isn’t a drain. Unless you mean that wind off the coast of ME.

Drain the swamp 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s in a good spot for this anyways. Doesn’t need to worry. 

I agree, but HRRR and NAM were trying to trigger seasonal trauma...I feel like I may want a bit of mid level margin for error here, though.

[Typhoon Tip]

Could almost be a silent passage ... ?

at some point along the way the DP sneakiliy sheds 10F.   The wind is already 0+ mph from the N/NE and the ceiling arrival time is perfect for cold capping in the diurnal cycle ( won't warm up enough to notice a change) so it may be hard to tell precisely when the front slips passed. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, but HRRR and NAM were trying to trigger seasonal trauma...I feel like I may want a bit of mid level margin for error here, though.

Man call it the glue factory or whatever but the Euro has had this nailed to your mailbox for 15 days 

[Chrisrotary12]

5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Haven't paid much attention to this until now but man that's kind of a deck destroying look on a lot of guidance. 

I'm so out on things I had no idea it was supposed to do anything tonight until my wife asked. First thing I look at is 12z HRRR from this morning and ummm.... winter storm warning incoming?

[tamarack]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Am I the only one that likes a faint smell of skunk? Not the intense nearby spraying. It’s like smelling gasoline to me. 

To me, the faint smell is on the edge of being perfumy.  When it's much stronger it reminds me of burnt rubber.  My one experience of fresh in-your-face skunk (animal control officer friend got nailed, entered his home while I was visiting) it was like having a stick shoved up my nose - overwhelming.  He walked thru the door and instantly the stench filled the room.

Looks like another snowstorm stays south, though it looks like we get the FRDZ mess tomorrow night into Saturday. 
Daughter is flying into PWM tomorrow morning, hope all goes as scheduled.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man call it the glue factory or whatever but the Euro has had this nailed to your mailbox for 15 days 

It was hitting up here to Maine for a week

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It was hitting up here to Maine for a week

Still had Raymonds mailbox pasted.

[tamarack]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Again squirrel is very good made right. Try something new find a Rod and Gun club wild dinner. From squirrel to pheasant to bear.

Gray squirrel is quite mild - ate a lot of them in my teens in NNJ, but my wife has less than zero interest.  Never tried red squirrel.  Haven't eaten bear, either, and won't kill a bear unless I've had some and liked it.

Nice raw north breeze under thin clouds, GYX says 20% chance of snow tonight, 60% chance of muck tomorrow night.  Bleccch! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It was hitting up here to Maine for a week

Yup, I remember I was checking out looking to take the first half of the month off, then everything collapsed southward for this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Still had Raymonds mailbox pasted.

No, it was mainly rain here.

[vortex95]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is close to unmitigated violence at BOS

Will CoastalWx eek out another 6" "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" wet snow pasting?  12z HRRR thinks so!

So borderline.  The issue is between 850 and 700.  Right on the fence for so much of the nrn 1/2 of MA.  1000-850 thickness ok.

One thing of note that may make ern MA down to Weymouth a "surprise,"  the sfc pressure never falls below about 1028 mb at BOS, which very high for a sig snowfall/QPF event.  And you can see the sfc high pressure wedge holds strong and tries hard to push SW in ern MA during the entire event.

Another thing, such high heights and thicknesses, so more moisture.  In fact, the 12z HRRR shows a max of 1.80" rain/LEQ not far S of ORH.  That is quite impressive for what amounts to a meager 1019 mb sfc low SE of ACK!

And yet another thing, it is quite strong mid-upper level trof (500-250) that passes right over SNE, cold pool and all, and you can see what happens later in the event over ern MA (esp. NE) as the pcpn "hangs back" a bit.  Sim IR shows a pseudo-common head.

Just sayin' that given high QPF, the ideal track of the 500 trof, and the borderline temps, there could be a "wild turkey surprise" here for more snow than explicitly shown!

Edit: And the peak of the pcpn is overnight, which makes an enormous difference for accumulating snow this time of year and give just a few less tenths of a degree to the BL!
 

[ORH_wxman]

12z RAP might have even been more violent than the HRRR. It has like 8-10” of spackle even on kuchera maps. It’s an isothermal blue bomb for pike region over to Scooter and BOS and north to Ray. 

[CoastalWx]

Nam bumped QPF north but warmer. Not much snow.

[ineedsnow]

NAM looks like ALOT of zr

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup, I remember I was checking out looking to take the first half of the month off, then everything collapsed southward for this week.

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it was mainly rain here.

Hate to disagree but Feb 26 run and it continued. You were so upset at the blizzard and checked out.

[ineedsnow]

Warnings definitely coming this afternoon 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam bumped QPF north but warmer. Not much snow.

I'll take it....last thing I want to contend with is dry air.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

 

Hate to disagree but Feb 26 run and it continued. You were so upset at the blizzard and checked out.

Show the total clown map...

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM looks like ALOT of zr

Won't you be snow and/or sleet mostly? I feel like you are too far north for much if any zr

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like southward slide is def. over.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Hate to disagree but Feb 26 run and it continued. You were so upset at the blizzard and checked out.

That’s Tue night

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take it....last thing I want to contend with is dry air.

Warmer though. Congrats on 1-3” vs 8”

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Won't you be snow and/or sleet mostly? I feel like you are too far north for much if any zr

Yeah he not getting much ZR

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

That’s Tue night

Yup, nice check.

I wasn't "checked out because of the blizzard"...I actually wrote a shit load on content on the blog AFTER the blizzard, which is why I was looking forward to a perceived break.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warmer though. Congrats on 1-3” vs 8”

I'll take the over on 1-3"...but I'd rather get 4" and Boston rain, then 5" and Boston 9".

100%.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the over on 1-3"...but I'd rather get 4" and Boston rain, then 5" and Boston 9".

100%.

That’s mind numbing but ok. You’re fucked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like I said with the blizzard......I would have rather it trended so far north that I had 6" of slush, then what happened.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like southward slide is def. over.

mm perhaps, but it physically can't go N in this case, not unless the blocking high pressure/synoptic structuring en masse are reconfigured. 

I don't personally see how that is happening or can?  I would almost argue instead that this is a bump run. May even correct the same amt the other way on the next cycle. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm perhaps, but it physically can't go N in this case, not unless the blocking high pressure/synoptic structuring is significantly en masse reconfigured. 

I don't personally see how that is happening or can?  I would almost argue instead that this is a bump run. May even correct the same amt the other way on the next cycle. 

 

I'm not saying it's marching back to Maine...just stabilizing with perhaps a tickle northward.