Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread

[mahantango#1]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-140745-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
335 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few thunderstorms with isolated strong to marginally severe wind
gusts are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

[mahantango#1]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 54. A few seasonable spring days ahead before the heat starts to build. Hopefully we can score some decent rains this evening. 

[pawatch]

51 degrees this morning. No rain overnight. Have a black cloud shadowing my house.

I guess we will see how much rain we can pick up off of  the thunderstorms today.

[ChescoWx]

Mostly cloudy today with highs not too far from average near 70 degrees. Some rain showers and maybe a thunderstorm late tonight ending toward rush hour tomorrow. We fall back to below normal temperatures both tomorrow and Friday before a big warm up with temperatures across the county reaching around 80 degrees on Saturday and the mid to upper 80’s on Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday should be the hottest day with temperatures especially in lower valley locations possibly touching 90 degrees. We will get cooler again by the middle of next week.

[Superstorm]

With all of the talk about cold recently, I had to look up the average date of the last frost in PA. Here are the dates in regional generalities:
Southern PA: South of Turnpike: April 21st and April 30th
I76/South Central PA: May 1st to May 10th
Ridge & Valley: May 11th to May 21st
I80 up to Rt. 6: May 21st to May 31st
North of Rt. 6: June 1st to June 10th
https://www.plantmaps.com/en/us/lf/state/pennsylvania/average-last-frost-dates-map/
Based on that, and given the upcoming forecast, it appears that much of the northern half of PA will see their last cold mornings BEFORE the average date. 
Unless I'm missing something. 

I did hear on channel 16 weather that this was the coldest May to date on record for northern PA.


.

[ChescoWx]

I have compiled the climate averages based on the NOAA calculation of Climate Normals for the philly burbs of Chester County PA for a full year with 30 year averages updated every 10 years. The first base period was from 1901-1930 with our most recent being the current climate base of 1991-2020. You can see our warmest base climate normal occurred back in the 1921-1950 and 1931-1960 periods.