2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

I maintain that SVR-Considerable with Tor Possible wording would have sufficed. 65 mph EF-0 is only 5 mph over base SVR. I don't believe there was any threat beyond a QLCS spinup of what we saw, and that took the open water and maybe a boundary to make it happen. 

Yes, the ""tor psbl" tag gives a lot more leeway yet covers the threat just the same.  It is a good "in-between" and works b/c now we know there are so many little spin-ups in SQLN situations.  Some are very transient, but still can do damage.  Then you have gustnadoes w/ can be up to EF1 strength, but do not count as tornadoes unless they connect to the cloud base, which often not easy to determine in the more moist environment and less visibility compared to the Plains.
 

[Kmlwx]

Sunday still looks like it has a chance. Maybe next Thursday too? 

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday. 

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday. 

Can you provide a link to the CSU MLP?

[George BM]

34 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Can you provide a link to the CSU MLP?

https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/csu_severe.php

[SnowenOutThere]

That storm in cvill is tor warned and seemingly has a debris ball on radar. 

[yoda]

Oh ok

499
NWUS51 KLWX 142303
LSRLWX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
703 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     Hail             2 E Charlottesville     38.04N  78.44W
08/14/2026  M2.50 inch       Albemarle          VA   Local Official

            Also reports of hail damage to vehicles at the same
            location.


&&

Event Number LWX2608205

[yoda]

8 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CSU MLP has a decent area of 5+% TOR for Sunday. 

LWX seems to be hitting the threat a bit harder in this afternoon AFD 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms and some instances of flash
flooding are possible on Sunday.

Some residual convective activity may be ongoing on Sunday
morning. This remains to be seen and will be guided by the
degree of overnight instability and boundary placement. How the
atmosphere recovers through the day should ultimately dictate
the degree of severe thunderstorm threat during the core diurnal
heating hours. The ingredients are certainly present for a more
impactful event if meteorological parameters all come together.

Looking a bit more closely at this event, a broad mid/upper
ridge persist across the Four Corners eastward to the
southwestern Atlantic. Amplified flow north of this expansive
anticyclone will continue to be a conduit to active convection,
many in the form of mesoscale convective systems (MCS). As
mentioned above, a remnant MCS might still be ongoing early
Sunday across the region. While above average heights persist,
expect some non-zero height falls to cross the area in response
to an approaching shortwave. Within this northwesterly flow
aloft, vertical shear is ample for the time of year, generally
around 30 to 35 knots. Depending on model choice, mixed-layer
CAPE values approach 1,500 to 2,500 J/kg. The combination of
these two will easily support a risk of severe weather. While
damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat, other severe
types loom if storms can remain discrete in nature.

Additionally, a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall continues
along much of the Alleghenies eastward along/north of I-66/U.S.
50. Precipitable water values rise markedly, possibly into the 2
to 2.25 inch range. While a single thunderstorm will be capable
of torrential downpours, the bigger threat would be for repeat
and/or training convection. The latter potential exists which
supports the flash flood risk. Although drought continues over
much of the region, many areas have seen a one category
improvement over the past week. Convection will likely be
ongoing into Sunday night with the cold front not passing
through until early Monday.