2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

That large of an area to the E of a lead warning?  The eastern edge of the warning, it is going to be almost an hour before anything occurs  When ppl get a svr tstm warning, and say, 30 min goes by, and nothing has happened yet, that I would argue promotes apathy, and ppl will start to stand down/go back to what they are doing.  Many ppl are only willing to take so much time out of the day for short-fused, convective-related warnings like this.  A longer lead time is not always better.  There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Normally I'd agree with that sentiment, but we have numerous outdoor events ongoing this weekend and we're grateful for the larger polygons. It's helping our lead time and our consequence management.

[WxUSAF]

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

Watch is being extended.

[mappy]

Gust front was the highest winds, not much T&L. Nice shelf though 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

Gonna get something. Sky is getting dark quickly and wind picking up

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gonna get something. Sky is getting dark quickly and wind picking up

Nice little segment coming your way.

[high risk]

The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County.  A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived.   Currently no power. 

[WxUSAF]

52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice little segment coming your way.

 

43 minutes ago, high risk said:

The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County.  A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived.   Currently no power. 

Yeah the winds ahead of the storm were fairly impressive. I don’t think severe IMBY, but probably into the 40s mph. 
 

eta…about 0.15” 

[frd]

Southern portion of the line appears to be weakening.

[yoda]

Storms back in OH are moving more SErly... I'm assuming those wont make it here at all?  I see a new watchbox out there 

[snowfan]

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Storms back in OH are moving more SErly... I'm assuming those wont make it here at all?  I see a new watchbox out there 

Nope. Atmosphere locally is turned over and we'll have lost daytime heating by then.

[yoda]

Friday maybe?  From Day 4-8 SPC OTLK 

..Day 5/Friday...

   A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave
   trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a
   departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase
   severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and
   perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately
   unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should
   subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an 
   unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next
   forecast update.

   Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of
   the southern High Plains.

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP likes both Thursday and Friday

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is also fairly supportive of some sort of threat at the end of the week. 

CIPS extended range remains supportive for severe as well way out into the long range. 

[Kmlwx]

For now it's a pretty broad brushed area - definitely could (when is it not?) be a scenario of many losers and few winners. 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

For now it's a pretty broad brushed area - definitely could (when is it not?) be a scenario of many losers and few winners. 

    Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week.   Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many.   The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe.    

     I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.

[Kmlwx]

The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads. 

[Kmlwx]

And yeah a deep trough to our west would be a recipe for potential action for sure! 

[WxUSAF]

I know it won’t happen this way (probably), but I’m gonna get grumpy if every front in the next 10 days passes at like 5am like today’s guidance wants to do 

[frd]

I hope machine learning ( which is very bullish) regarding severe weather is somewhat accurate.  See below:

 

Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with
several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through
the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large
impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through
early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and
relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to
approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of
thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact
on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast
details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good
agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly
unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will
also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong
downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear
(around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an
environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer
severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a
conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat
for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave
disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing
the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach
from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence
in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability
might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish
on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We
will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming
days.

[Kmlwx]

Day 2 marginal, Day 3 marginal and day 4 15%

[Eskimo Joe]

11 hours ago, frd said:

I hope machine learning ( which is very bullish) regarding severe weather is somewhat accurate.  See below:

 

Upper level ridging is expected to build overhead on Thursday, with
several models also showing a shortwave disturbance passing through
the top of the ridge. How this disturbance evolves will have a large
impact on our forecast locally. If the disturbance passes through
early in the day, we could have large scale subsidence and
relatively low coverage of showers and thunderstorms. If it were to
approach at peak heating, we could have a much greater coverage of
thunderstorms. Upstream convection will likely have a large impact
on how that disturbance evolves, so confidence in the forecast
details on Thursday is lower than normal. What models are in good
agreement about, is that the background environment will be highly
unstable (CAPE values likely in excess of 3000 J/kg). There will
also be enough dry air in the mid-levels to support strong
downdrafts (DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg), and just enough shear
(around 20 kt) to give storms some weak organization. Such an
environmental setup is common in many of our more impactful summer
severe thunderstorm events. As a result, there appears to be a
conditional threat for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. That threat
for severe thunderstorms may continue on Friday as a shortwave
disturbance passes to our northwest through the Great Lakes causing
the upper ridge to break down and a surface cold front to approach
from the northwest. With greater synoptic scale forcing, confidence
in the occurrence of storms is higher on Friday, but instability
might be slightly lesser. Machine learning guidance is very bullish
on the severe thunderstorms threat for both Thursday and Friday. We
will continue to monitor this potential threat over the upcoming
days.

I've noticed a trend in the AI D3-D6 range tends to herd and "go big" a lot.

[Kmlwx]

Total gut feeling (no science involved) but it feels like the stretch of days where a few people get absolutely smoked by a wind damage core or two and the rest of us maybe hear distant thunder or see mostly sunny skies. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Total gut feeling (no science involved) but it feels like the stretch of days where a few people get absolutely smoked by a wind damage core or two and the rest of us maybe hear distant thunder or see mostly sunny skies. 

Co-sign. Would favor the higher elevations along and west of I-81 where updrafts can get a boost from the terrain, or neat the bay where a bay breeze front can boost some forcing.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Co-sign. Would favor the higher elevations along and west of I-81 where updrafts can get a boost from the terrain, or neat the bay where a bay breeze front can boost some forcing.

The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us. 

[Eskimo Joe]

59 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us. 

I would favor Friday for more organized severe weather. Thursday gives the all hat no cattle impression.