2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

That large of an area to the E of a lead warning?  The eastern edge of the warning, it is going to be almost an hour before anything occurs  When ppl get a svr tstm warning, and say, 30 min goes by, and nothing has happened yet, that I would argue promotes apathy, and ppl will start to stand down/go back to what they are doing.  Many ppl are only willing to take so much time out of the day for short-fused, convective-related warnings like this.  A longer lead time is not always better.  There comes a point of diminishing returns.

Normally I'd agree with that sentiment, but we have numerous outdoor events ongoing this weekend and we're grateful for the larger polygons. It's helping our lead time and our consequence management.

[WxUSAF]

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

Watch is being extended.

[mappy]

Gust front was the highest winds, not much T&L. Nice shelf though 

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Are those going to make it? Seems a little early. Going to arrive before the STW starts if they don’t fall apart. But like @high risk  said, I don’t get why storms would fall apart before sunset on a hot summer day. 

Gonna get something. Sky is getting dark quickly and wind picking up

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gonna get something. Sky is getting dark quickly and wind picking up

Nice little segment coming your way.

[high risk]

The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County.  A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived.   Currently no power. 

[WxUSAF]

52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nice little segment coming your way.

 

43 minutes ago, high risk said:

The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County.  A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived.   Currently no power. 

Yeah the winds ahead of the storm were fairly impressive. I don’t think severe IMBY, but probably into the 40s mph. 
 

eta…about 0.15” 

[frd]

Southern portion of the line appears to be weakening.

[yoda]

Storms back in OH are moving more SErly... I'm assuming those wont make it here at all?  I see a new watchbox out there 

[snowfan]

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Storms back in OH are moving more SErly... I'm assuming those wont make it here at all?  I see a new watchbox out there 

Nope. Atmosphere locally is turned over and we'll have lost daytime heating by then.

[yoda]

Friday maybe?  From Day 4-8 SPC OTLK 

..Day 5/Friday...

   A number of the 00z models progress a lower-latitude short-wave
   trough through the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes, which is a
   departure from previous model runs. That scenario would increase
   severe-weather potential across those areas into New England, and
   perhaps the Mid-Atlantic, given the potential for a moderately
   unstable air mass across the pre-frontal warm sector. Should
   subsequent model runs remain consistent with this recent trend, an 
   unconditional 15% probability contour may be needed in the next
   forecast update.

   Elsewhere, Isolated severe storms appear possible across portions of
   the southern High Plains.

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP likes both Thursday and Friday

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is also fairly supportive of some sort of threat at the end of the week. 

CIPS extended range remains supportive for severe as well way out into the long range. 

[Kmlwx]

For now it's a pretty broad brushed area - definitely could (when is it not?) be a scenario of many losers and few winners. 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

For now it's a pretty broad brushed area - definitely could (when is it not?) be a scenario of many losers and few winners. 

    Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week.   Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many.   The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe.    

     I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.

[Kmlwx]

The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads. 

[Kmlwx]

And yeah a deep trough to our west would be a recipe for potential action for sure!