Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[Imgoinhungry]

I'll take 0.5"

Snow tv. Nothing will stick, i think.


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[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 3K NAM: snow is Monday afternoon.  Freezing rain overnight Monday/ Tuesday am.

[high risk]

Those of us north of DC got HRRR'ed for Monday afternoon.   Notable shift north for the NAMs as well.....

[Imgoinhungry]

Those of us north of DC got HRRR'ed for Monday afternoon.   Notable shift north for the NAMs as well.....

Early dismissals coming for schools?


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[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Early dismissals coming for schools?


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Ehh....its bound to happen but roads should be fine during daylight hours.

[blizzardmeiser]

27 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Snow tv. Nothing will stick, i think.


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Yup, white rain. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Ehh....its bound to happen but roads should be fine during daylight hours.

I agree. But districts love to overreact.


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[WxUSAF]

I’ve been sorta NAM’d

[bncho]

GFS shifted north, and I've just been GFS'd

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS shifted north, and I've just been GFS'd

Keep on coming north lol

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RGEM

[stormtracker]

We back!

[LeesburgWx]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We back!

Have not looked at this thread in 2 days and this is the most recent post!

[Imgoinhungry]

Will this impact pm commute Monday and am commute on Tuesday? Or mostly a nothing burger?


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[snowfan]

2 hours ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Snow tv. Nothing will stick, i think.


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36 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Will this impact pm commute Monday and am commute on Tuesday? Or mostly a nothing burger?


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You answered your own question earlier today

[Imgoinhungry]

You answered your own question earlier today

Yea, but that is before I saw the gfs come north.


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[Jake Wx]

euro!

[NorthArlington101]

euro!

Nice improvement from 12z. Seeing a wetter trend for sure. Also norther. Could be a “congrats Parkton” if it continues but it’s been a while so that’s okay. Would appreciate any and all snow TV on tap

[DDweatherman]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nice improvement from 12z. Seeing a wetter trend for sure. Also norther. Could be a “congrats Parkton” if it continues but it’s been a while so that’s okay. Would appreciate any and all snow TV on tap

Definitely beefed up nicely vs previous runs. Ai had been a lot more bullish for a while. I’d love to sneak into 1-2” even if Winchester east got a Jack. Maybe tonight’s runs will keep the juicing going.

 

wonder if the RAP is juiced up? lol 

[DDweatherman]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Nice improvement from 12z. Seeing a wetter trend for sure. Also norther. Could be a “congrats Parkton” if it continues but it’s been a while so that’s okay. Would appreciate any and all snow TV on tap

Just looked at the 18z euro and gfs AI suite, both are a bit north and more juicy than 12z and that seems to be the trend the last several cycles. I could see this providing a last minute surprise especially in the higher elevations. The rain a few days ago ended up a lot more substantial than models had it and the qpf axis ended up 50-75 miles north of the modeling from the night before.  

[NorthArlington101]

We’ll see lol. Took the initial band a little north but essentially a copy/paste of 18z as the final result. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We’ll see lol. Took the initial band a little north but essentially a copy/paste of 18z as the final result. 

the question is --does it snow after the wave 1 pause or does it start as zr/sleet. HRRR and GFS say snow. The NAMs and euro say zr

[Weather Will]

Latest HRRR is colder with snow in NW zones for round 2 that comes in early Tuesday am. WB 0Z HRRR 2am Tuesday compared to 18Z.

[WEATHER53]

Dews dropping dramatically north filtering south .  Something is afoot 

[MDSnow93]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We’ll see lol. Took the initial band a little north but essentially a copy/paste of 18z as the final result. 

I would take that in MoCo all day

[poprock49]

12k NAM looks solid, better than 18z

[high risk]

 While a messy Tuesday morning rush hour has been in the cards for a while now, I'm becoming increasingly intrigued by the Monday afternoon snow event.    My question is what the road temps will be like Monday after a couple of warmer days but a cold night.   The NAMs and HiResW FV3 suggest that temps will only barely go above freezing tomorrow before arriving snow cools it back a few degrees.   It's still tough to imagine messy roads during the daytime, but maybe if it comes down hard enough?    Ultimately, it's *probably* just going to whiten grassy surfaces until you get further west and northwest, but the Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning period will be a nice reminder of winter before the big warmup.  

[stormtracker]

Despite this being advertised here as N and W thing, i think we all get in on some snow TV at least. 

[NorthArlington101]

Since this is kind of a joke event, why not randomly post the ARW control. We can dream!

[NorthArlington101]

In all seriousness, my one takeaway from the early mostly-joke mesos is that they try to be snow with that second portion at the start. That would be a good trend.