Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

You been ninja'd 

Thankfully I'm almost never Ninja'd with the great SPIRE.

[Weather Will]

On GFS, with warm ground from the weekend, and snow falling during the day, cut those accumulations some at least on pavement but air temp is well below freezing with 20 plus degree negative anomalies.
 

[CAPE]

I was kinda done with this but if I can get 5-6" this would be the best winter here since 2015.

[Warm Nose]

I think fair to inject the phrase "trash model" at this point ...

[CAPE]

Just now, Warm Nose said:

I think fair to inject the phrase "trash model" at this point ...

Did pretty well with the last storm. Many runs depictiing significant snow while all other models had a well offshore coastal low and minimal impacts.

And then there is this-

So yeah

[LeesburgWx]

I think I’m in. All models are actually mostly agreeing. I’m surprised to be honest, and temps in the 20s. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Did pretty well with the last storm. Many runs depictiing significant snow while all other models had a well offshore coastal low and minimal impacts.

And then there is this-

So yeah

Exactly.  Not sure why people are acting like the GFS is alone with this idea.   

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Let’s get the GFS solution delayed by 6-10 hours so it starts late afternoon.   Which I guess is what the euro shows?

[TSSN+]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

On GFS, with warm ground from the weekend, and snow falling during the day, cut those accumulations some at least on pavement but air temp is well below freezing with 20 plus degree negative anomalies.
 

The fuck you talking about. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The fuck you talking about. 

I was about to roast him, but I just let it go.   It's like there are no examples of where it was 70 before a major snowstorm and the snow stuck just fine.

[Heisy]

GFS is like 12 hours faster than euro/cmc

One positive to take I guess is regardless of timing each model has a nice swath of snow on the gradient. They each just have different timing/press of the N/S

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I was about to roast him, but I just let it go.   It's like there are no examples of where it was 70 before a major snowstorm and the snow stuck just fine.

I mean it was 53 the day before the last one and it dropped to 33 and it was accumulating. 24 probably is better no?

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You been ninja'd 

This is the setup that has had the second highest likelihood of all our storms so far this year. Simple, easy way to win. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

This is the setup that has had the second highest likelihood of all our storms so far this year. Simple, easy way to win. 

Nothing “easy” around here 

[Ji]

Love to see sprawling 1040 HP to the north/NW with a wave approaching from the SW.

I bet you do

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I bet you do

Don't you?

You're odd man.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS is like 12 hours faster than euro/cmc

One positive to take I guess is regardless of timing each model has a nice swath of snow on the gradient. They each just have different timing/press of the N/S

One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timing

[jayyy]

One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timing

Idk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season

[CAPE]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Idk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season

Slow, late...seems about the same result-wise, lol How many times have we said "Ah if this done this 6 hours sooner..."

[Ji]

Don't you?
You're odd man.

No I like highs in Arkansas

[Weather Will]

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The fuck you talking about. 

The big storm for me last weekend was a lot of white rain. Like it or not, ground temps and sun angle matter this time of year.  If the snow is a light snow during the day on Monday even with temps below freezing it will melt. Soil temps never fall below freezing on Monday.  Have to factor that in.

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

there are a lot of big hits in the individual members. and i think IAD gets at least 1" from all of them.

[Ji]

CWG is going 1-3 inches

[Jake Wx]

gfs ai precip, 3-5 most likely 

[T. August]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

Gonna be congrats Chill by Saturday.

[stormtracker]

Euro time!

[Jake Wx]

euro ai goes north

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

euro ai goes north

Perfect for this range, I’m in, looks like a decent moderate event with good temps. 

[stormtracker]

ok..117, just the early signs of light precip coming into the pic out west.  Temps remain about the same as 12z