bncho Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, CAPE said: You been ninja'd Thankfully I'm almost never Ninja'd with the great SPIRE. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 On GFS, with warm ground from the weekend, and snow falling during the day, cut those accumulations some at least on pavement but air temp is well below freezing with 20 plus degree negative anomalies. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I was kinda done with this but if I can get 5-6" this would be the best winter here since 2015. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think fair to inject the phrase "trash model" at this point ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, Warm Nose said: I think fair to inject the phrase "trash model" at this point ... Did pretty well with the last storm. Many runs depictiing significant snow while all other models had a well offshore coastal low and minimal impacts. And then there is this- So yeah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 I think I’m in. All models are actually mostly agreeing. I’m surprised to be honest, and temps in the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Did pretty well with the last storm. Many runs depictiing significant snow while all other models had a well offshore coastal low and minimal impacts. And then there is this- So yeah Exactly. Not sure why people are acting like the GFS is alone with this idea. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Let’s get the GFS solution delayed by 6-10 hours so it starts late afternoon. Which I guess is what the euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: On GFS, with warm ground from the weekend, and snow falling during the day, cut those accumulations some at least on pavement but air temp is well below freezing with 20 plus degree negative anomalies. The fuck you talking about. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, TSSN+ said: The fuck you talking about. I was about to roast him, but I just let it go. It's like there are no examples of where it was 70 before a major snowstorm and the snow stuck just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 GFS is like 12 hours faster than euro/cmc One positive to take I guess is regardless of timing each model has a nice swath of snow on the gradient. They each just have different timing/press of the N/S 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I was about to roast him, but I just let it go. It's like there are no examples of where it was 70 before a major snowstorm and the snow stuck just fine. I mean it was 53 the day before the last one and it dropped to 33 and it was accumulating. 24 probably is better no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: You been ninja'd This is the setup that has had the second highest likelihood of all our storms so far this year. Simple, easy way to win. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: This is the setup that has had the second highest likelihood of all our storms so far this year. Simple, easy way to win. Nothing “easy” around here 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Love to see sprawling 1040 HP to the north/NW with a wave approaching from the SW.I bet you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I bet you do Don't you? You're odd man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: GFS is like 12 hours faster than euro/cmc One positive to take I guess is regardless of timing each model has a nice swath of snow on the gradient. They each just have different timing/press of the N/S One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 One theme of this winter is things being too slow...hard to bet on faster timingIdk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Idk if slow is the overall theme this winter. More like… late. The progressive nature of the NS in a niña usually makes it so that storms capture / bomb out too far east (or “late”). The NS has had waves flying through it all season Slow, late...seems about the same result-wise, lol How many times have we said "Ah if this done this 6 hours sooner..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 Don't you? You're odd man.No I like highs in Arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The fuck you talking about. The big storm for me last weekend was a lot of white rain. Like it or not, ground temps and sun angle matter this time of year. If the snow is a light snow during the day on Monday even with temps below freezing it will melt. Soil temps never fall below freezing on Monday. Have to factor that in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: there are a lot of big hits in the individual members. and i think IAD gets at least 1" from all of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25 Author Share Posted February 25 CWG is going 1-3 inches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 gfs ai precip, 3-5 most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gonna be congrats Chill by Saturday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Euro time! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 euro ai goes north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, Jake Wx said: euro ai goes north Perfect for this range, I’m in, looks like a decent moderate event with good temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 ok..117, just the early signs of light precip coming into the pic out west. Temps remain about the same as 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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