March Madness

[CoastalWx]

This is probably top 3 annoying pattern that can be. Cold enough to tap for snow at times, but not conducive to storm development. Almost like Mother Nature said that’s enough fun, back to nut kick mode. Guess we should get used to it for next year.

[Damage In Tolland]

60’s this weekend SNE

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

60’s this weekend SNE

Looks like a lovely weekend shaping up.

[CoastalWx]

Sunday could be a nice DSD

[dendrite]

Min 15.1° with wind

Even too cold in the garage for the plants.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BPfB6quXa/

Looks like AI. I dunno.

[Typhoon Tip]

Solidly below normal pattern that's masked by a solidly changing climate

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Half inch March. From outies to innies in two weeks. March has shit the bed more often than not lately. You’d think we would be due. 

I was wrong on that....the stratosphere never really clicked like I thought it would. The attempt the second week of February ended up being a fake-out, which is where we parted ways with 2018....then we ended up succeeding in a reversal in early March, but it wasn't a true SSW and was kind of late, anyway by that point.

Disappointing finish to be sure, but I am happy overall with my outlook this year. I do need to fine tune how I develop my temp composites, though bc I wasn't cold enough...I'm still learning how to properly assimilate the role that CC plays in this. I think what I missed is that if the pattern is a dead-ringer for cold, which it was this year, then go nuts...don't water down the composites to account for CC in a generic sense because that is far too reductive a practice that will lead any forecaster astray. It can still get damn-cold, but it's just that the dice are now loaded against that particular outcome in any given region. The trick is to be a skilled and confident enough seasonal forecaster to identify those 1 or 2/10 seasons and go all-in. You can't be non-committal and meek, or else accuracy will suffer.

The truth is that I am remiss because I diagnosed this seasonal pattern about as accurately was any accomplished seasonal forecaster ever will, but I never fully committed to it, which was reflected in my temp composites.

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BPfB6quXa/

AI slop

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like AI. I dunno.

It is .damn, deleted 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It is .damn 

I kind of knew that because look how fast the snow is blowing and the trees are barely moving. Scooter can sniff out BS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was wrong on that....the stratosphere never really clicked like I thought it would. The attempt the second week of February ended up being a fake-out, which is where we parted ways with 2018....then we ended up succeeding in a reversal in early March, but it wasn't a true SSW and was kind of late, anyway by that point.

Disappointing finish to be sure, but I am happy overall with my outlook this year. I do need to fine tune how I develop my temp composites, though bc I wasn't cold enough...I'm still learning how to properly assimilate the role that CC plays in this. I think what I missed is that if the pattern is a dead-ringer for cold, which it was this year, then go nuts...don't water down the composites to account for CC in a generic sense because that is far too reductive a practice that will lead any forecaster astray. It can still get damn-cold, but it's just that the dice are now loaded against that particular outcome in any given region. The trick is to be a skilled and confident enough seasonal forecaster to identify those 1 or 2/10 seasons and go all-in. You can't be non-committal and meek, or else accuracy will suffer.

The truth is that I am remiss because I diagnosed this seasonal pattern about as accurately was any accomplished seasonal forecaster ever will, but I never fully committed to it, which was reflected in my temp composites.

It's quite challenging to entirely wipe the slate clean and not carry past forecasting failures into the next season, as this is something that I have grappled with after busting far too cold/snowy a couple of times during that least +WPO regime. That was definitely on my mind and played a role in the reluctance to fully commit in terms of aligning my temp composites to reflect the pattern that I was so confident would ensue.

[Damage In Tolland]

[weatherwiz]

The pattern looks about as boring as can be really unless you're a fan of some pretty chilly temperatures at times with chances for snow showers. Basically we get some milder days with FROPAS and chilly temperatures/snow showers. Any chance to end things with one more solid widespread storm appears pretty nil. Maybe we can at least get a decent warmup to begin April

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I'll bet I end up right near the zone of demarcation...

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is warm both days. CAA on Sunday but not horrible.

[dendrite]

Actually 6z is 70s down there Sunday with the later fropa.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I kind of knew that because look how fast the snow is blowing and the trees are barely moving. Scooter can sniff out BS.

Sometimes.  Most times AI still has that look of something off. When it learns to correct that, that’s when things will get tougher to spot. 

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's quite challenging to entirely wipe the slate clean and not carry past forecasting failures into the next season, as this is something that I have grappled with after busting far too cold/snowy a couple of times during that least +WPO regime. That was definitely on my mind and played a role in the reluctance to fully commit in terms of aligning my temp composites to reflect the pattern that I was so confident would ensue.

The weather humbles everybody. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The pattern looks about as boring as can be really unless you're a fan of some pretty chilly temperatures at times with chances for snow showers. Basically we get some milder days with FROPAS and chilly temperatures/snow showers. Any chance to end things with one more solid widespread storm appears pretty nil. Maybe we can at least get a decent warmup to begin April

You're not asking me but ... I couldn't care any less if the pattern is unremarkable, just don't be unremarkable yet remarkably persistently cold. 

Whether it measures in the actual temperatures or not, that has been plaguing this region of the hemisphere since October.  It's as though this region's been "singled out", targeted chill. 

I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less!  But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point.  Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy.   To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. 

The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold.  At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're not asking me but ... I couldn't care any less if the pattern is unremarkable, just don't be unremarkable yet remarkably persistently cold. 

That's plaguing this region of the hemisphere since October.  It's as though this region's been "singled out" for targeted chill. 

I'm with you. The few days we had this month that were record warm were a breath of fresh air but outside of those few days its been chilly and breezy. Unfortunately, this looks like it will be the dominant theme to at least close out the month but of course we'll get the mild day or two out ahead of any FROPAS so long the main sfc low is well to our northwest. Some signs this massive western ridging may break down later which may boost our chances for a more milder regime but sometimes models can be a bit too quick with breaking down those stout ridges

[tunafish]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I kind of knew that because look how fast the snow is blowing and the trees are barely moving. Scooter can sniff out BS.

And by it being posted by a boomer on FB.  Dead giveaway.

 

15.1° for the low.

[CoastalWx]

Man we euro this weekend. That would be fantastic. 

[CoastalWx]

Get the cleanup going, some tunes outside, late afternoon beverages…let’s go. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm with you. The few days we had this month that were record warm were a breath of fresh air but outside of those few days its been chilly and breezy. Unfortunately, this looks like it will be the dominant theme to at least close out the month but of course we'll get the mild day or two out ahead of any FROPAS so long the main sfc low is well to our northwest. Some signs this massive western ridging may break down later which may boost our chances for a more milder regime but sometimes models can be a bit too quick with breaking down those stout ridges

Right.  I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less!  But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point.  Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy.   To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. 

The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold.  At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that couples to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that. 

Unfortunately, ENSO mode changes don't typically register in the summer when change sets in, in summer.   Plus, coupling has been shaky in recent cycles.  'Sides, who wants to wait until September for summer to begin.  heh.

 

[powderfreak]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I kind of knew that because look how fast the snow is blowing and the trees are barely moving. Scooter can sniff out BS.

That and the person moving like they are a robot taking a shit lol.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right.  I realize we put up a 75er last week ... over a snow pack, no less!  But that exceptional circumstance really underscores the former point.  Because in philosophic principle, the heat has to eventually punch through the pattern and then we have the unusual dichotomy.   To mention, the warmth was replaced very quickly by 20F mornings. 

The NH has been in some kind of constructive resonance that happened to favor our region for cold.  At this point, I'm hoping for a violent +ENSO mode that coupled to the mid latitudes like the greatest love story of all time ...just to fuckin topple said resonance and get away from this persistence - if it takes that.

It is going to be quite interesting to see which direction ENSO heads moving through the spring and summer. There are already emerging background signals that we are at least heading into the direction of EL Nino but of course we're still pretty far off from that. I know there has been some rumblings about the potential for a stronger EL Nino (should one materialize) which IIRC does hold some merit based on PDO evolution (isn't there some delayed connection between peak -PDO and an ensuing developing/stronger Nino?).

But there's been a nice little WWB going on at 850 and guidance is robust with this WWB through the end of the month as it approaches the dateline. But we'll want to probably continue seeing a constant supply of WWB traversing the EPAC. I don't put much into short-term changes of Nino 1.2 because of how volatile it is but that region has had some significant warming which at least in the short term reduces the easterlies and upwelling of colder water off the continent. 

Going to be a fascinating summer in this regard. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also, as Scott - I think - mentioned..  this is the time of year when a chilly look can be flogged by daddy sun like a red headed step child, and it may not look like a mild day at first chart glance.    I noticed that Sunday profile yesterday, myself.  Had a kind of sneaky partly sunny with light WNW flow, and 850s only +2 ...   That's the kind of day/profile that busts MOS by 3 clicks or more.   It's fragile ... increase the clouds even a little and f's it all up and it's the same shit.. But at least it's non-zero some gain time of year.

This bullshit enabling circumstance can fight all it wants ... June is still coming. 

[dendrite]

Not sure what the gfs robots are doing for Sunday, but I do not approve 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is going to be quite interesting to see which direction ENSO heads moving through the spring and summer. There are already emerging background signals that we are at least heading into the direction of EL Nino but of course we're still pretty far off from that. I know there has been some rumblings about the potential for a stronger EL Nino (should one materialize) which IIRC does hold some merit based on PDO evolution (isn't there some delayed connection between peak -PDO and an ensuing developing/stronger Nino?).

But there's been a nice little WWB going on at 850 and guidance is robust with this WWB through the end of the month as it approaches the dateline. But we'll want to probably continue seeing a constant supply of WWB traversing the EPAC. I don't put much into short-term changes of Nino 1.2 because of how volatile it is but that region has had some significant warming which at least in the short term reduces the easterlies and upwelling of colder water off the continent. 

Going to be a fascinating summer in this regard. 

No kidding!  

This is a much bigger issue ... with a spectrum of implications that transcends typical concerns with ENSO. 

I mean there's all the failing and fragile coupling arguments, as RONI was developed to more closely elucidate matters... but beyond that, check out the global current SSTs, only as the NINA is relaxing. 

The last week's-worth needs to be verified, hence the spotted line ... But seldom does that fail.  It is highly likely that the global SSTs, presently, rival 2024's record breaking warmth.  The astute observer might even notice that the last 10 days of which was a bit of a surge?  That's coincided with this CPC product's rather abrupt break down of the E Pac cool expanse.  

Thus, the implications if/when NINO takes over are quite intuitive.