March Madness

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Sure it will. Then that will change too, like it just did. That’s the whole point. Get with the f’n program bro. 

Ok chief 

[Typhoon Tip]

We still live a world that has been, and continues to consummately over-perform warmth (per verification). 

We just have been persistently given no excuse not to for perhaps 4 straight months.  Today, with it's dense ceiling of solar blocked strata capping us drowned in left over polar inversion, definitely does not represent an excuse to go warm, either. 

If we bust the inversion, you will go above machine guidance and eat reality by force.  Short sleeve shirt appeal over a snow pack occurs once this wiggly red feature wobbles through our region by tomorrow

We haven't had a day of 64 F in so long.  I sense that some posters doubt it can?  some kind of acclimation bias.  It's funny how willing folks are to think of this as back to normal winter and referencing climate like this is 1992. Reality check:  this was the anomaly.  Not the other way around. That's not coming back and you are wrong to perceive matters that way.   

Don't be fooled by this blue blob of fortunate. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We still live a world that has been, and continues to consummately over-perform warmth (per verification). 

We just have been persistently given no excuse not to for perhaps 4 straight months.  Today, with it's dense ceiling of solar blocked strata capping us drowned in left over polar inversion, definitely does not represent an excuse to go warm, either. 

If we bust the inversion, you will go above machine guidance and eat reality by force.  Short sleeve shirt appeal over a snow pack occurs once this wiggly red feature wobbles through our region by tomorrow

We haven't had a day of 64 F in so long.  I sense that some posters doubt it can?  some kind of acclimation bias.  It's funny how willing folks are to think of this as back to normal winter and referencing climate like this is 1992.  That's not coming back and you are wrong to perceive matter that way.   

Don't be fooled by this blue blob of fortunate. 

 

I’m pretty sure nobody is expecting to be multiple degrees below the 1951-1980 climate baseline going forward. 

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM lost the Tuesday warmth

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

At 3,000ft we measured only 36” in February, which is kind of wild.  It didn’t rain either, just didn’t do much of anything.

Should be 70-75” on average.

We’ve gone really dry since sometime in January… but snowpack has remained healthy due to the strong early season base.

Snowfall was pacing way above normal by like early to mid January and has now fallen back to a normal pace for the high elevations.

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM lost the Tuesday warmth

Don’t do it 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m pretty sure nobody is expecting to be multiple degrees below the 1951-1980 climate baseline going forward. 

I set that to be 1951 -2020  just to be clear.  

I didn't say "below" anything.  Not sure what you mean there.

It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'.

Not sure that's wise.  Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.  

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it 

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM

I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -) 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

day one fail for warmth.. forecast was 48   only made it to 38 so far

Glad we don't live there.

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do it 

Just hard to buy with SW flow

[Typhoon Tip]

It is however precarious ... any time you have polar air amassing into Ontario, with > sfc pressure than what is in our area/SE ... that's teetering with correcting that boundary S.  But the model run itself was not "lost of Tuesday's warmth"  

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM

I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -) 

He is probably looking at the temps which will always be woefully low.

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Yeah, I mean it’s still been a great winter, snow depth days way up, and shows the overall importance as a skier if getting that deep early season base and then being able to ride that out.

Been skiing the glades since November… it really lengthens the ski season.  Feel like we’ve been at 30-45” depth in the base area for 2+ months now too.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He is probably looking at the temps which will always be woefully low.

A long time ago there was a poster form NWS ... his name was Ekster   

He told me that the NAM has winter algorithms and that they were "not yet switched to warm season" once when we were looking at the warm early spring possibility.  

I wonder if that's still true. 

Granted we have a snow pack but ... we'll probably be mixing better tomorrow whence we'll be mad melting.  I think it's fascinating if people let it ... to test how warmth performs running up over this glacier.  lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Mid-50s in Vermont:

07	15:56	N 3	10.00	Fair	CLR	54	43			67%			29.8	1009.1
07	14:56	Calm	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT046 SCT095	55.9	44.1			65%			29.84	1010.2
07	13:56	N 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	FEW055 BKN110	54	42.1			64%			29.88	1011.7

I'm here until Monday morning.

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I set that to be 1951 -2020  just to be clear.  

I didn't say "below" anything.  Not sure what you mean there.

It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'.

Not sure that's wise.  Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.  

Well yeah, it was pretty cold this winter. Top 15 at ORH airport since 1948. So that by definition means it’s not really “normal”…and in the context of post-2020, it’s obviously a shock to the system. 
 

But those warmest 2020-2024 torch winters weren’t remotely normal either even in the modern context. It was like Virginia climo. But we had back to back furnaces so I think a lot of people got over their skis in the other direction in terms of expectations. 

[CoastalWx]

Big difference in my exposed spot vs down the street. Gonna be some interesting dichotomies in the pack department come this week.