2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Terpeast]

[RickinBaltimore]

MDZ005-006-008-011-014-017-018-505>508-220400-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-
St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
246 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 
  8 inches. Locally higher amounts near 12 inches are possible in 
  northeast Maryland. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern, 
  and southern Maryland.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will 
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. 
  The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in 
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for 
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[Ji]

Just now, WVclimo said:

Currently sunny and 57° with a WSW going into effect 24 hours from now.  

happened in March 1993!

[RickinBaltimore]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

That's a cut back from earlier for Baltimore, was 5.1", though the 90% percentile went to 20" here. And a jump from 7% to 14% for 18+"

[Terpeast]

Just now, RickinBaltimore said:

That's a cut back from earlier for Baltimore, was 5.1"

I would adjust bmore up to 7” and also winchester is probably way too low

[Jake Wx]

[Paleocene]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

paging @Eskimo Joe. that looks, um, bad. for the regional power grid.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z HRRR is a beast for DC northeast, not sure about that Frederick/Loudoun/western Montgomery snow hole. But Baltimore metro gets 6" - 10" of pancake batter.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Paleocene said:

paging @Eskimo Joe. that looks, um, bad. for the regional power grid.

Yea. . . . .

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Currently sunny and 57° with a WSW going into effect 24 hours from now.  

What could possibly go wrong?

But seriously, tomorrow is gonna be an absolute nothing burger until that coastal kicks in.  Temps look like they'll be in the mid 30s throughout area until early evening.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

18z HRRR is a beast for DC northeast, not sure about that Frederick/Loudoun/western Montgomery snow hole. But Baltimore metro gets 6" - 10" of pancake batter.

Yeah, it doesn’t match climatology of past storms like this. 

[bncho]

NAM looking better

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z HRRR is a beast for DC northeast, not sure about that Frederick/Loudoun/western Montgomery snow hole. But Baltimore metro gets 6" - 10" of pancake batter.

Brutal run for here.. 3km NAM has been showing something similar. 

[Miss Pixee]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

on that map it looks like it. the anacostia river valley into NE DC, and prince george's, is also a low point. successful banding + elevation.

 

@bncho https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-8t6/United-States/?center=38.94056%2C-77.01166&zoom=11

You have a sharp eye. Note the purple/blue over the water, the pinks correspond to NW and SE borders where elevations go to 200+. Like a perfect topographic map. DC is essentially a bowl.

[frd]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

If the winds happen as modeled here,  the Blizzard warnings for Kent and Sussex DE. counties would likely be expanded North to New Castle county in Northern DE.  

[Eskimo Joe]

AKQ going Blizzard Warnings for central and southern Delmarva. Wow.

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

NAM looking better

Yeah, H5 looks even better than 12z

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

on that map it looks like it. the anacostia river valley into NE DC, and prince george's, is also a low point. successful banding + elevation.

 

@bncho https://en-us.topographic-map.com/map-8t6/United-States/?center=38.94056%2C-77.01166&zoom=11

well, i'm VERY glad i live where i live. just far east enough to get into the CCB, plus 400' elevation

[bncho]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Yeah, H5 looks even better than 12z

the low is 50 miles W

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

AKQ going Blizzard Warnings for central and southern Delmarva. Wow.

Just texted my sister and BIL who are in Selbyville, told them to send me videos 

[NVAwx]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

happened in March 1993!

Sunday, January 2, 2022:

Monday, January 3, 2022:

[DDweatherman]

H5 is souther, and wester, and amper on the Nam so far lol

[bncho]

oh lord

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, bncho said:

oh lord

Going negative even sooner it looks

[Ji]

NAM looks like its diggier/negativer/wester

[Snowman.]

The 18z NAM is way west of 12z

[CAPE]

59 minutes ago, yoda said:

@CAPE got his blizzard warning lol

Well damn. I've been outside fixing the end of driveway from the last storm. So nice out. Almost hard to believe what's coming.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z NAM is about to do NAM things. In CAMS we trust. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

oh lord

More energy from trailing vort sucked into the main one

[bncho]

YO THAT ALBERTA VORT IS PHASING I THINK