2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

There will be an ultimate loser out of this on the western edge, but it's tough to say where. The norlun trough is going to be really important for you guys to hit max potential. I'm semi-bullish for areas of NE MD down along and east of I-97. I'm bullish af for areas east of Cambridge latitude. Delaware is the place to be for our sub-forum. 

Agreed. I do think there’s going to be a big winner on the west side with the norlun. They’re notorious for big totals where they park, and not going to see much more of an intense storm associated with one than this one. 

[snowfan]

13 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east. 

I do agree that areas right along the bay may go higher but just thinking bwi will come in slightly below. Places like naptown, chessie beach are in a good spot, locally. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Miller b is the worst man

We're just not north enough for them to fully develop unless you're east and NE.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Miller b is the worst man

True but at least we’re not getting shut out (hopefully).

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

We're just not north enough for them to fully develop unless you're east and NE.

I mean, sure…but a 980 low off ocmd is better than most miller B situations. This thing matures extremely quickly. Should be good enough to not give us a complete screw job here

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I mean, sure…but a 980 low off ocmd is better than most miller B situations. This thing matures extremely quickly. Should be good enough to not give us a complete screw job here

You would think, but apparently not, with few exceptions. 

Fwiw, Ukie ensembles, which is the best they ever looked.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Dude you should be careful. where you understand the crazy bust boom potential of this storm and know to take your forecast with a grain of salt, your coworkers could be looking to you as the "wiz weather geek" that always "gets it right".. and for all we know some poor schmuck decided to move forward with a party or some big plans based on the fact that "2-4 is nothing"

then Sunday night comes and he is stranded in his car on route 50 under a blizzard warning!

I’m pretty sure they aren’t making decisions based on what this weenie is telling them. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You would think, but apparently not, with few exceptions. 

Fwiw, Ukie ensembles, which is the best they ever looked.

I think there’s gonna be some winners west of the bay. Certainly losers, probably out by me somewhere (but perhaps a big IVT winner). that is a nice improvement on the uk ens. 
 

Our HQ out in Neptune/Asbury NJ is going to get destroyed in this one…they have already have an above climo season leading in 

[WxUSAF]

Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?

There’s a 4-8” zone west of a 2-5” zone for sure. Then another 4-8” zone on 95 with boom potential especially east.

[MDstorm]

11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Notoriously the overzealous RAP haha. One of the worst pieces of guidance of course. What do the 9z srefs show? 

9z SREFs jogged west (roughly 0.3 inches more of precipitation across the board).  FWIW

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?

Still liking 4-6 IMBY 

[Quasievil]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Tough tough forecast. Boom/bust potential is so much higher than normal. The January storm seemed really locked in by the end in comparison. Someone’s going to Jack with the IVT and maybe pull in double digits a short drive away from places with like 2-3”. Still like my 2-6” range but maybe worth inching that up for HoCo/Carroll and points east?

These setups are so worrisome. It smells of January 2010 here. Waiting for the IVT is dicey. We should honestly be very conservative around here, especially with a during the day cutting back on stickage..

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MDstorm said:

9z SREFs jogged west (roughly 0.3 inches more of precipitation across the board).  FWIW

They don’t mean much except to indicate latest trends perhaps. Might see the 12z Nam come back west some here in a bit.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

There’s a 4-8” zone west of a 2-5” zone for sure. Then another 4-8” zone on 95 with boom potential especially east.

Then throw elevation effects into it…

[Quasievil]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

They don’t mean much except to indicate latest trends perhaps. Might see the 12z Nam come back west some here in a bit.

That could be more noise at this point. I do not envy anyone who makes a living having to make the forecast here.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Then throw elevation effects into it…

Yep, elevation dependent boom scenarios, subsidence zones, you name it. This one has it all. Winners and losers are guaranteed. Just hope the losers hit their respective bars 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Still liking 4-6 IMBY 

I think that’s solid. But probably the floor? You may be slowly accumulating during the afternoon and early evening while the rest of us stare at 37F white rain or regular rain…

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Quasievil said:

That could be more noise at this point. I do not envy anyone who makes a living having to make the forecast here.

Absolutely. It’s one of the most complex setups you’ll see. The one thing I like is how potent this is. Hope we nudge west today, and see a path to how we could.

[Quasievil]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Absolutely. It’s one of the most complex setups you’ll see. The one thing I like is how potent this is. Hope we nudge west today, and see a path to how we could.

Agree. I’m skeptical but only because of how notorious the Miller B types are around here. A west shift would help. Banter-y; my sister is sitting comfortably under a blizzard warning in NJ. Meh.

[mitchnick]

Didn't see it posted, but 6z Eps improved over 0z.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think that’s solid. But probably the floor? You may be slowly accumulating during the afternoon and early evening while the rest of us stare at 37F white rain or regular rain…

Maybe. I’m expecting it to be snowing most of the day but not amount to much and if it does, then it’s a bonus! 

[bncho]

Randy is fine is Houston. I doubt Cleaveland Park Mountain gets any more than 4". So much hype for a storm for such a paltry result. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Didn't see it posted, but 6z Eps improved over 0z.

Excellent. I “felt like” 0z was kind of a blip. @Ampedi believe said it well, the h5 didn’t really lead to believing a 50-75 east shift was warranted. Let’s correct back west. 
 

let’s add another 1.5” at 12z

[mappy]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Randy is fine is Houston. I doubt Cleaveland Park Mountain gets any more than 4". So much hype for a storm for such a paltry result. 

Off the high you were on last night with all caps posts? lol

[H2O]

I’m just gonna take every snow map and cut in half for mby. Daytime won’t give much accum with temps being what they usually are down here. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Excellent. I “felt like” 0z was kind of a blip. @Ampedi believe said it well, the h5 didn’t really lead to believing a 50-75 east shift was warranted. Let’s correct back west. 
 

let’s add another 1.5” at 12z

Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Off the high you were on last night with all caps posts? lol

I woke up and realized how hopeless 8-12" is for anybody in the region except CAPE. lol

[H2O]

The main thing I’m gonna look forward to is it snowing while driving back from taking my kid back to college. 

[mitchnick]

I know it's the Rap, but the 9z really moved west over the 3z (extended Rap also comes out every 6 hrs but at 3z, 9z, etc.) With the Srefs and Eps, now Rap, moving west from 0z/3z, we can hope for another jump west. 

p.s. Wennied myself before anyone else does it!