February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[The Iceman]

Get ready for chaos because I think the euro is actually going to do it lmao

 

edit: not quite, looked great at hour 72 and 78...but we mostly get the IVT

 

Biggest difference i see is that the GFS bombs the low out to 977, the euro doesn't bomb it out nearly as dramatically hence the block shunts it further east. I thought it looked closer to the GFS though than 00z did. 

[ChescoWx]

[ChescoWx]

So across the Canadian / GFS and Euro let's go with a
plowable snow event between 7" to 24" for Chester County....

[Newman]

Honestly the Euro isn't that far off, it's 6-12 hours too late on phasing with that southern energy that the GFS does. Everything else looks great, we just need that southern vort ejecting out of the Rockies to continue to tick slower. It's really all phase/no phase related.

[JTA66]

35 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I don't know why, but that area of reduced accumulation going up the NE Extension in central Montco ALWAYS shows up on clown maps. Schuykill River surface temp anomalies?? 

[Duca892]

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

[Birds~69]

15 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

I'll take a 3-6"er in a minute. I'm just glad I'm late to the party and haven't spent much time tracking till now...

41F/Overcast

[Duca892]

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

[The Iceman]

Just now, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

I’m saying 18z will be happy hour, it’ll look even better than 12z, 00z with the fresh data is where the rug gets yanked though 

[MickeyTim6533]

4 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

18z the party is over. book it

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

 I mean... i guess all in all... it wasn't a terrible mid-morning/afternoon if you want to keep hope alive for at least a plowable event N/W of Philly? 

S&E of Philly

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I keep waiting for the GFS rug pull to go towards all other guidance. Any bettors for 18z?

Funny thing is, gfs keeps doubling down even slight improvements each run....but its not like other guidance is trending bigly the other way. There has been very slow/subtle shifts across other guidance even giving a slight nod to the GFS. I dont think the GFS is 100% accurate by any means, but a 6hr change in timing of the shortwave in question on other guidance and boom the GFS suddenly has legs. We'll see. Being a betting man Im putting the mortgage on the gfs being the outlier though. 

[RedSky]

Have not been following just hearing here and there like discord that it's over the euro didn't cave

12z Euro is 3-4" what is going on lol

 

[Duca892]

9 minutes ago, RedSky said:

S&E of Philly

 

True i guess it is more so what you consider plowable lol. Today has kind of settled in for places like the Lehigh Valley for a 1-2in event with a few outliers