Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[Duca892]

Just now, Violentweatherfan said:

Don’t do that to yourself 

Sorry my fault

[Duca892]

GFS just straight up doubling down and actually increasing amounts is wild. We are literally inside of 80hrs and right now GFS is going down with its ship. 

[Violentweatherfan]

I’m still looking for any appreciable snowfall, more than 10 inches that has occurred during a weak La Niña with the MJO in phase 4.

Oh and very little cold air to work with.

 

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I’m thinking greenskeeper 

He's been MIA for quite some time. Maybe a on the job wood-chipper "accident" while keeping the greens nice and tidy? A true dedicated professional indeed...

Ok, back to our blizzard!

38F/ Overcast

[LVblizzard]

[Mikeymac5306]

CMC looks flat to my weenie eye. 

[MattMal88]

GFS said, "For my next trick, I'm gonna tuck this bombing low into the Chesapeake bay!" Lol. 

[Mikeymac5306]

10 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

CMC looks flat to my weenie eye. 

Grabbed it and pulled it just offshore. 

[MGorse]

The GFS sniffing glue or something? 

[Lady Di]

19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

He's been MIA for quite some time. Maybe a on the job wood-chipper "accident" while keeping the greens nice and tidy? A true dedicated professional indeed...

Ok, back to our blizzard!

38F/ Overcast

He's still around.  Annoying as ever on an Eagles MB I frequent.

[The Iceman]

3 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The GFS sniffing glue or something? 

interestingly the AIGFS also shifted NW... it was much further east than the OP at 06z and still is, but it definitely shifted towards the OP. I'm thinking we meet in the middle of the GFS and the other models, meaning a close miss. Maybe we can salvage something with the IVT though, won't know until Sunday with that.

[Birds~69]

 

4 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The GFS sniffing glue or something? 

There's never a bad time to see a image or saying from from  the movie Airplane...

39zF

[penndotguy]

Thread all ready started huh, see ya next winter I hear the Fat Lady singing already 

[zenmsav6810]

When will we get some aircraft recon?

[Voyager]

46 minutes ago, Newman said:

12z GFS is a huge hit. I'm laughing because it seems like every other model (so far) at 12z turned more unfavorable and now the GFS double downs  At the very least, it's entertainment.

Or it's going to score the biggest coup in weather model history...lol

[JTA66]

6 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

When will we get some aircraft recon?

I think we had some at 18z yesterday and more at 0z. Can anyone confirm?

[MGorse]

10 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I think we had some at 18z yesterday and more at 0z. Can anyone confirm?

Yes, there were recon data yesterday at 18z and 00z in the eastern Pacific. Looks like some recon data is scheduled again for 00z this evening.

[Birds~69]

11 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I think we had some at 18z yesterday and more at 0z. Can anyone confirm?

I thought today was the day when it comes on shore out west? I could be talking out of my ass though?

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I thought today was the day when it comes on shore out west? I could be talking out of my ass though?

Yup, most of the energy is onshore today. The recon is also for atmospheric river research/data.

[The Iceman]

Yeesh many of the Gefs are just as bullish as the op… pretty tight cluster to the nw of the mean.

 

this is either going to be an all time fail by the gfs suite or the coup of the decade. My money is on fail but it’s definitely going down swinging.

[JTA66]

14 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Yes, there were recon data yesterday at 18z and 00z in the eastern Pacific. Looks like some recon data is scheduled again for 00z this evening.

Mike, is that data used exclusively for US modeling or is it shared with international partners (Canadians, Europeans, etc.)? 

[MickeyTim6533]

so the GFS will fold at 18z?

[Heisy]

so the GFS will fold at 18z?

Yes, it’s a crap model, it takes a few cycles for it to crap put bad initialization data. The profession would be easier if the gfs didn’t go out beyond 3 days. Or even existed at all.

[Heisy]

Yes, it’s a crap model, it takes a few cycles for it to crap put bad initialization data. The profession would be easier if the gfs didn’t go out beyond 3 days. Or even existed at all.

I do think parts of S DE-S NJ can still get into the ccb but the gfs solution is a joke imo. Entertaining, but a joke

[MickeyTim6533]

when was the last time the GFS nailed a storm like its doing now?

[Heisy]

when was the last time the GFS nailed a storm like its doing now?

2010, 16 years ago

Gfs did the same exact thing last year and/or the year before last with an event inside 84 hours. Just trying to save you the heartache of a let down when it eventually does.

If the euro comes in and looks anything like the gfs I’ll post a video of myself streaking down broad steet lol.

[MGorse]

14 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Mike, is that data used exclusively for US modeling or is it shared with international partners (Canadians, Europeans, etc.)? 

The recon data, as far as I know, is available for all to use.

[MickeyTim6533]

Euro AI is weaker and east. 

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, MGorse said:

The recon data, as far as I know, is available for all to use.

Thanks! Hope they at least chip in with gas $$$ to fuel up the plane  

[MickeyTim6533]

expecting the full cave for GFS at 18z