Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Shit I hope dc gets 20, if they do you’d be on the way back anyways. Seems almost statiscally impossible at this point the gfs has this magically nailed while others look so much different…

Without the bombing coastal, the gfs would be low impact too 

[dsnowman]

I don’t think there is a middle ground here with temps. We either get the earlier phasing / coastal development where rates overcome temps (GFS / NAM) and we get pummeled, or we get a few inches of wet snow (EURO, UKMET). Where have I seen this movie before.


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[snowfan]

Just now, mappy said:

Without the bombing coastal, the gfs would be low impact too 

Daytime non accumulating snow. The heartbreak meter on this one is high even if the potential high reward exists 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, dsnowman said:

I don’t think there is a middle ground here with temps. We either get the earlier phasing / coastal development where rates overcome temps (GFS / NAM) and we get pummeled, or we get a few inches of wet snow (EURO, UKMET). Where have I seen this movie before.


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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Daytime non accumulating snow. The heartbreak meter on this one is high even if the potential high reward exists 

The IVT snow is after dark so that makes a difference. But I could still see urban areas, especially if they’re on the fringe of the heaviest snow, struggle with accumulation. Core of the IVT, especially away from the UHI probably will have 10-12:1 ratios. Edge of the IVT in urban areas could be like 5:1…

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Daytime non accumulating snow. The heartbreak meter on this one is high even if the potential high reward exists 

It’s always been that way tho. Gfs is the only one deepening the offshore low close enough to us to give us stupid totals. Without it, it’s rain/snow showers, with marginal temps and hoping the ivt sets up overhead. That ivt can easily be east or west and give central MD down to DC and VA next to nothing. 
 

but pretty snow maps 

[WxUSAF]

In my casual looking, euro and other guidance clearly made a big step toward gfs at 18z yesterday and then 0z and 6z have been a cumulative tiny step back from it. But we need like 2 more steps to get to the gfs. And I think gfs is inching toward the other guidance. We’re in a better spot than yesterday for sure, but gfs is still on a major island. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mappy said:

It’s always been that way tho. Gfs is the only one deepening the offshore low close enough to us to give us stupid totals. Without it, it’s rain/snow showers, with marginal temps and hoping the ivt sets up overhead. That ivt can easily be east or west and give central MD down to DC and VA next to nothing. 
 

but pretty snow maps 

No heartbreak with this one…if it fails oh well it’s spring.  

[mitchnick]

Last 3 Eps runs.

[mappy]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

No heartbreak with this one…if it fails oh well it’s spring.  

Right. I’m with you. Snow is snow even it amounts to nothing. By March 1st I’m in spring mode. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mappy said:

Right. I’m with you. Snow is snow even it amounts to nothing. By March 1st I’m in spring mode. 

I’d be happy to see a few inches of wet snow on the grass, why not? But yeah if the gfs slowly comes back to a low impact thing…oh well!

[mappy]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’d be happy to see a few inches of wet snow on the grass, why not? But yeah if the gfs slowly comes back to a low impact thing…oh well!

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the gfs score a coup. But it’s on an island right now like Wxusaf said

[dailylurker]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’d be happy to see a few inches of wet snow on the grass, why not? But yeah if the gfs slowly comes back to a low impact thing…oh well!

All I need is 3" and I'm at old school climo. LFG, and if not. Oh well. Spring starts Tuesday anyway. 

[bncho]

Euro Ai Ens better

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mappy said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the gfs score a coup. But it’s on an island right now like Wxusaf said

Agree, somehow, someway, maybe this thing can be right for once and it’ll pound snow all day on Sunday. But yeah, not counting on it. 

[mappy]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Agree, somehow, someway, maybe this thing can be right for once and it’ll pound snow all day on Sunday. But yeah, not counting on it. 

I will say WBAL this morning must be using the gfs a little bit as they were showing it snowing at my house as early as 5am Sunday. Of course I’ve got elevation which helps with the marginal temps but still gonna be hard to accumulate much unless it’s dumping. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro Ai Ens better

Looks more coastal and less IVT.   I want to believe!!!

[Imgoinhungry]

Latest from LWX

Euro showing 3-5 and gfs 10+. Expected snowfall 1-2 inches? Guess they are factoring in marginal temps and going with a lot less than 10:1?


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[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I will say WBAL this morning must be using the gfs a little bit as they were showing it snowing at my house as early as 5am Sunday. Of course I’ve got elevation which helps with the marginal temps but still gonna be hard to accumulate much unless it’s dumping. 

I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT. 

I think we should be rooting for a later start time either way. Get the clouds here during the day to hold off the sun angle, and then thump overnight for best snow-maxing

[mitchnick]

My NWS forecast is 1-3". Obviously not buying Gfs. 

[bncho]

SREF way more amped and NW

[bncho]

We went from 1% to 6%!

[baltosquid]

Man it wouldn’t take much. On balance guidance looks tiltier at 06z. GFS is just pretty much perfect in getting that look setup for capture, rest don’t quite figure it out. But give me another run of tiltier stuff… 12z, MAYBE 18z is the money run. I think by then either the GFS joins everyone else in dropping the big coastal or at least one other global sees it too.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I could see a scenario where colder spots like you get a little accumulation early Sunday, then it melts away, and then more with the IVT. 

Yeah, I could see that too. WBAL had me snow, to mix during the day, then back to snow. Alena didn’t show totals 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

SREF way more amped and NW

Wait till you see the snowfall map. Run not finished yet, but wowzah!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Wait till you see the snowfall map. Run not finished yet, but wowzah!

I have to! Only thru Monday 1am. Still going.

[Ji]

Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast

You can’t split them down the middle. One is a classic nor’easter and the other is a weak ass system

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

You can’t split them down the middle. One is a classic nor’easter and the other is a weak ass system

I actually was thinking this. It’s not really much of a “compromise” look. Gotta pick a side and then extrapolate from there. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

You can’t split them down the middle. One is a classic nor’easter and the other is a weak ass system

Its 730am and you're already shit posting. CTFD.

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think we should be rooting for a later start time either way. Get the clouds here during the day to hold off the sun angle, and then thump overnight for best snow-maxing

 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yeah, I could see that too. WBAL had me snow, to mix during the day, then back to snow. Alena didn’t show totals 

Don’t think anyone talked about 6z rgem but it shows this well. Starts as snow for a lot of people and then mixing back and forth all day and then a solid IVT thump after dark. It’s 10:1 totals are 6-8” for some, but even in the coldest spots you’d never have that on the ground all at once.