Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

NAM is better for the coastal fans but worse for the people who want to bet on the H5 pass to get snow 

The Norlun was post 84 with the closed h5 low going across the Va/nc border

[baltosquid]

VERY early on the ICON (18hrs) but the Alberta vort looks a bit better oriented and the southern wave is more west and a bit deeper.

[Solution Man]

53 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

Where do I sign 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

So, not quite Groucho level but getting close??? 

Ohhh no we need four more positive Euro suites before we get to TWO raised eyebrows...

[bncho]

southern stream much slower on the ICON

[paulythegun]

My heart swells with jingoistic pride when I watch the underdog AMERICAN GFS model somehow prevail, against all odds.

While we await its latest nugget of wisdom, please enjoy this song

[Jake Wx]

NAM gets snow back into dc HOUR 84

[IronTy]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh no we need for more positive Euro suites before we get to TWO raised eyebrows...

I've got a piano recital on Tuesday, I'm gonna do Chopin Op. 28 No 4.  Hoping to be snowed in instead.  

[Heisy]

Differences obvious. Gfs connects these waves as one smoothed out shortwave, nam doesn’t and the trailer one ends up almost acting as a kicker.

[LP08]

Like the early on shifts on the Rgem with our NS sw 

[LeesburgWx]

It’s close. Good news is most models trending toward GFS and not other way around

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

My heart swells with jingoistic pride when I watch the underdog AMERICAN GFS model somehow prevail, against all odds.

While we await its latest nugget of wisdom, please enjoy this song
 

Holllld your American horses there we don't know that yet, haha

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Differences obvious. Gfs connects these waves as one smoothed out shortwave, nam doesn’t and the trailer one ends up almost acting as a kicker.

I was thinking that too. So.much separation between the waves heights actually rise in front of the trailing wave. I suppose that helps with the positive vorticity advection aspect but the full phase and capture is not on the 0z nam. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Holllld your American horses there we don't know that yet, haha

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was thinking that too. So.much separation between the waves heights actually rise in front of the trailing wave. I suppose that helps with the positive vorticity advection aspect but the full phase and capture is not on the 0z nam. 

Go big or go home. Gimme the 24"

[Maestrobjwa]

ICON seems to look a lottle better at the surface to my novice eye...

[LP08]

Really liking both Icon and Rgem at h5.  Good trends

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fv3 at 60 isnt as diggy with the lead shortwave so the trailing one has more of a chance to catch it and phase. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

ICON seems to look a lottle better at the surface to my novice eye...

Is a lottle more than a little? Like a 'lot' better?

[LeesburgWx]

Remember the ICON led the way a few days ago with showing a blizzard? 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Remember the ICON led the way a few days ago with showing a blizzard? 

I’ll never give the icon credit for a single blind run and then wavering. If the gfs scores a coup, it was at least invested.

[baltosquid]

ICON is trying. Can't reel in the surface low this time (unless it somehow gets it from frame 72->78) but brought it much closer.

[Jake Wx]

[TowsonWeather]

I fully expect this middle ground most models seem to be trending to will be similar to the ultimate outcome here, but that doesn't mean I'm not having a blast watching the GFS do its thang. 

Even if it caves at 0Z, this has been hella fun, lol.

[LP08]

Rgem going to be real close…

[baltosquid]

RGEM is intriguing... I don't know if it will get there but it is definitely gonna try. Looks eager to turn the corner. But may end up in the ICON ballpark, idk.

[Cobalt]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

I fully expect this middle ground most models seem to be trending to will be similar to the ultimate outcome here, but that doesn't mean I'm not having a blast watching the GFS do its thang. 

Even if it caves at 0Z, this has been hella fun, lol.

These weather models we have at our disposal are an excellent storyteller. It's almost like they knew they couldn't fully cave one way or another at 18z and had to have us on deck for this 0z suite. 

[Weather Will]

RRFS-A

here.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is a lottle more than a little? Like a 'lot' better?

New word for the forum, lol

[baltosquid]

RGEM is perplexing. I feel like the surface SHOULD be further west with that look? Better h5 look than the ICON I think. But it's further east. Idk. I really like the h5 changes. Just perplexing.