Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[LVblizzard]

Just now, bncho said:

This is what I saw in differences and I was like, this would be good

If you’re comparing it to 12z it’s better. But 18z was overall better than the current run.

[TSSN+]

Still interesting to see how the ai version is much better than the op. Who wins euro classic or euro hip

[Amped]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

This is what I saw in differences and I was like, this would be good

 The Gfs stalls the 500mb low over Ohio and then tracks it down over Virginia Beach. Not gonna help if its over Central PA.

[Ji]

Euro is absolutely horrific. Non event

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

Euro is absolutely horrific. Non event

Maybe for you. 

[TSSN+]

NE MD likes this run. But everyone else doesn’t. Wild how different the solutions are on every model now even inside 96hrs. 
 

[Solution Man]

At 84 it throws a mixed bag into region 

[Ji]

Maybe for you. 

And for you. Good luck getting 5 inches with no rates

[Ji]

At 84 it throws a mixed bag into region 

Because it’s so weak. Snow tv

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

And for you. Good luck getting 5 inches with no rates

Snowing for 18hrs at 32 or below into the night. Think it would do just fine. But also so I believe any these models are right? No 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Because it’s so weak. Snow tv

Yep, on its own for now

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

NE MD likes this run. But everyone else doesn’t. Wild how different the solutions are on every model now even inside 96hrs. 
 

Forgive me, but...why do you always sound surprised everytine there's model discrepancy in the mid-range? The models are not so good that chaos at this range is some kind of unthinkable thing, lol

[Amped]

So Ukmet, Icon and Euro dont have much of anything. Gfs, Cmc and the AI models at least give us a moderate event.

[Ji]

Forgive me, but...why do you always sound surprised everytine there's model discrepancy in the mid-range? The models are not so good that choose at this range is some kind of anomaly, lol

We’re not at Mid range. Storm basically starts day after tomorrow

[Ji]

@psuhoffman the Ai ensembles have snow by tomorrow night lol

[Roger Smith]

Could this be designated PD-3 (or PD-III) if it proves to be a heavy snowstorm anywhere in the east coast region? Or would that happen after the fact only? 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Could this be designated PD-3 (or PD-III) if it proves to be a heavy snowstorm anywhere in the east coast region? Or would that happen after the fact only? 

It would have to happen on President's day weekend...hence the PD abbreviation, lol

[Roger Smith]

Was that last weekend? I always think of PD storms as being around Feb 20th and I am not that familiar with how various states celebrate the occasion. Will have to read up on it. 

Just finished reading up on it, apparently Washington's actual birthday adusted to the Gregorian calendar was Feb 22nd (1732) but the holiday falls on the third Monday in February in most states (not all). Lincoln's birthday was February 12th, 1809

So this storm could be labelled Washington's Birthday Blizzard although it won't likely start until the early morning of the next day. 

Anyway now I know a lot more about Presidents' Day, and apparently one of the few states that does not observe the holiday is Delaware. 

[jayyy]

It’d be pretty wild if we reeled this in, in any capacity this late in the game. Let’s see if trends continue tomorrow or we see models bounce back toward their original solution. 95 east should for sure should be intrigued at the very least

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z NBM para

[Solution Man]

06z GFS looks good, moderate snow at 78

[Solution Man]

Heavies through 84 and continues through 87, 995 off Norfolk 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

06z GFS looks good, moderate snow at 78

Yeah... I saw the positives and negatives on the H5 map... but a better outcome for us.  The best part is the SW came north.

[CAPE]

[Solution Man]

@CAPEgetting the goods, epic

[AmericanWxFreak]

Wow…

[CAPE]

lol that's a damn blizzard

[Interstate]

Just now, CAPE said:

lol that's a damn blizzard

Remember the other day when I said just a few things need to happen for a Blizzard... and I was looked down upon.  In no means do I think we are getting this much snow, but this is the best possible outcome.

[Ji]

lol that's a damn blizzard

Congrats

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

@CAPEgetting the goods, epic

We need to keep reminding ourselves- these are simulations of what could happen.