MegaMike Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: how's reggie looking? Agreed with dendy and Coastal. Better than the NAM, but would kick OTS. I would say it looks worse than its 06z cycle too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 This winter putting on a clinic on how to tease us with a big dog but then not produce. The mid range(Day6-3) has been a disaster. Yikes. I expect more precision being 2026 but here we are. Perhaps too many models is a bad thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Hazey said: This winter putting on a clinic on how to tease us with a big dog but then not produce. The mid range(Day6-3) has been a disaster. Yikes. I expect more precision being 2026 but here we are. Perhaps too many models is a bad thing? It is. Now we have AI versions to add to the noise. Too many models run too many times per day. Great for winter crack addictions though… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Cut it back to 12z/0z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Here’s the problem in my eyes, and this is completely serious. The aggregate is not good. When you take every piece of guidance, ensemble, etc? They average out to a miss. You also can’t really afford a compromise. A compromise of the euro and gfs solutions is a miss. You’re essentially hedging that every model is entirely wrong with the major players for the system. Because even models and ensembles with a hit are mostly confined to Se New England. Given all the information, I’d put the odds of a region wide hit at like 5% and a plowable SE graze at like 15% I agree with you. Ignoring trends, this looks like a graze verbatim. Most ensemble means (I think Ryan posted probabilities earlier) barely, if at all, get the 24hr-QPF 0.5" contour to the Cape/Islands. Definitely keep expectations low, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 ICON is NW! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, MegaMike said: I agree with you. Ignoring trends, this looks like a graze verbatim. Most ensemble means (I think Ryan posted probabilities earlier) barely, if at all, get the 24hr-QPF 0.5" contour to the Cape/Islands. Definitely keep expectations low, for now. Respectfully, I think we should wait for @ineedsnow to chime in on this before we pass judgement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ICON is NW! LOL. Huh? You ok homie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ICON is NW! LOL. Icon storm development is definitely less favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Masswx said: Icon storm development is definitely less favorable What did dad put in his coffee this morning? Did it look similar to sugar?… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ICON is NW! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Dustings of snow for everyone!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 GFS AI a tick nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The icon was a tick NW, especially as the storm developes off the mid Atlantic. Slightly better ridge out west. It's also a bit weaker at our lattitude with the precip a bit less expansive on the western side. Still a solid miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 ICON looked about the same or a little worse to me, and still nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I think the 12z GS is going to be west of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, dryslot said: I think the 12z GS is going to be west of the 06z run. I’ll go SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 At this point, just gotta keep things from trending SE. That MegaSWFE in JAN didn't start tending north until there was only a couple days to go. We just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I say it holds, mostly noise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yea its west of 6z but congrats richmond on blizzard. Lbsw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3'+ for DC. A LBSW special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea its west of 6z but congrats richmond on blizzard. Started out that way, SLP was into NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll go SE SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, dryslot said: Started out that way, SLP was into NJ. Yea then kicks east after occlusion. Ray’s favorite solution… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Weaker too by about 7mb as it LBSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Ginx snewx said: SW Same diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 3'+ for DC. A LBSW special. Can’t wait for the forum to crash while I post cirrus obs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Let the north trend begin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Still decent for the Cape/Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Still great for sema. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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