“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That isn't what I would consider full commitment....

I wouldn’t focus on the QPF

That 500 mill bar combined with that surface there’s no way that thing isn’t causing major major snow problems, clear to Fitchburg

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I wouldn’t focus on the QPF

That 500 mill bar combined with that surface there’s no way that thing isn’t causing major major snow problems, clear to Fitchburg

Yea, I'm just being neurotic. I was mentally resigning, and now have a foot back in and vulnerable.

[dryslot]

You'll know this is legit when folks start to worry about a mix line..............lol

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I remember the 1 euro run for a day and we didn’t have QPF

Me too. 24 hour interval polygon sharp lines and mslp only. Almost useless. It's kinda like how we have the JMA now. 

I remember looking at Feb 2006 and being like oh that's a blizzard that's nice and moved on back to the NCEP site. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Me too. 24 hour interval polygon sharp lines and mslp only. Almost useless. It's kinda like how we have the JMA now. 

I remember looking at Feb 2006 and being like oh that's a blizzard that's nice and moved on back to the NCEP site. 

JMA did that today, too....20 year redux?

[Prismshine Productions]

Oh boy the change from 18z to 0z

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[40/70 Benchmark]

I know that one was earlier....I remember it was just before V DAY because I didn't want to go out with my ex because I was glued to models

[RDRY]

(12) john jackson on X: "Lake Tahoe. Ho-lee sht. https://t.co/bQIJPtx2AK" / X

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You'll know this is legit when folks start to worry about a mix line..............lol

"Congrats, Dendrite"....

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Congrats, Dendrite"....

That one too, Although that works here in most cases as well.

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What are your thoughts?

Honestly I don’t have a feeling. Need 00z. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Honestly I don’t have a feeling. Need 00z. 

Beer?

[Prismshine Productions]

Shift west on the Nammer

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[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly I don’t have a feeling. Need detox. 

 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Beer?

Sounds that way

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Sounds that way

Unfortunately no

[Masswx]

Nammer is still south 

[CoastalWx]

My biggest worry is that this matures way south and scoots ENE. So all these calls about models being west aren’t going to mean shit because of this setup. This needs to mature off the Delmarva and move NE and not blow over Wallopw Island. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Nammer is still south 

Huge jump nw though and it’s nam. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

My biggest worry is that this matures way south and scoots ENE. So all these calls about models being west aren’t going to mean shit because of this setup. This needs to mature off the Delmarva and move NE and not blow over Wallopw Island. 

I feel good about it maturing later than some of those wild runs...EURO AI reflected that.

[Masswx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Huge jump nw though and it’s nam. 

Agreed

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM is a bit east of the EURO.

[RDRY]

That trailing energy still punts the low out to sea.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s definitely better, but getting into a range where you need good moves, not baby steps 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty good agreement between the NAM/EURO/GFS, which still isn't good enough for most. Need one more nudge, but it shoots ENE.

[dendrite]

84hr nam…take a shot

[dryslot]

Never like the ENE track, Its always on my mind, Need this to go more NNE as it gains lat and mature further north too for something more substantial, But the Nam at least didn't totally fumble the ball.

[George001]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But that’s my point . Before these past few winters . Most everyone would buy into this being real. You can tell other than a handful, most do not and are expecting 00z to go back to a light snowfall 

Yeah, the Euro this close in making that kind of move is a huge deal. I didn’t like how consistent it was with an eastern solution, this re opens the door for a bigger hit than a coastal scraper. 

 

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM was weird at h500.  Like the kicker was almost a phaser.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Never like the ENE track, Its always on my mind, Need this to go more NNE as it gains lat and mature further north too for something more substantial, But the Nam at least didn't fumble the ball.

I don't think the rate of maturation is a huge issue in these latest iterations....it's just getting booted ENE.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the rate of maturation is a huge issue in these later iterations....it's just getting booted ENE.

It always comes down to where it gets kicked ENE, I just don't like these systems in general that form off the Carolinas, To many things to go wrong.