“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MegaMike]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how's reggie looking?

Agreed with dendy and Coastal.

Better than the NAM, but would kick OTS.

I would say it looks worse than its 06z cycle too.

 

[Hazey]

This winter putting on a clinic on how to tease us with a big dog but then not produce. The mid range(Day6-3) has been a disaster. Yikes. I expect more precision being 2026 but here we are. Perhaps too many models is a bad thing? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hazey said:

This winter putting on a clinic on how to tease us with a big dog but then not produce. The mid range(Day6-3) has been a disaster. Yikes. I expect more precision being 2026 but here we are. Perhaps too many models is a bad thing? 

It is. Now we have AI versions to add to the noise. Too many models run too many times per day. Great for winter crack addictions though…

[Kitz Craver]

Cut it back to 12z/0z

[MegaMike]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Here’s the problem in my eyes, and this is completely serious.

The aggregate is not good. When you take every piece of guidance, ensemble, etc? They average out to a miss.

You also can’t really afford a compromise. A compromise of the euro and gfs solutions is a miss. You’re essentially hedging that every model is entirely wrong with the major players for the system. Because even models and ensembles with a hit are mostly confined to Se New England.

Given all the information, I’d put the odds of a region wide hit at like 5% and a plowable SE graze at like 15%

I agree with you.

Ignoring trends, this looks like a graze verbatim. Most ensemble means (I think Ryan posted probabilities earlier) barely, if at all, get the 24hr-QPF 0.5" contour to the Cape/Islands.

Definitely keep expectations low, for now.

 

[CoastalWx]

ICON is NW! LOL.

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I agree with you.

Ignoring trends, this looks like a graze verbatim. Most ensemble means (I think Ryan posted probabilities earlier) barely, if at all, get the 24hr-QPF 0.5" contour to the Cape/Islands.

Definitely keep expectations low, for now.

 

Respectfully, I think we should wait for @ineedsnow to chime in on this before we pass judgement.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ICON is NW! LOL.

Huh? You ok homie?

[Masswx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ICON is NW! LOL.

Icon storm development is definitely less favorable 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Icon storm development is definitely less favorable 

What did dad put in his coffee this morning? Did it look similar to sugar?…

[SJonesWX]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ICON is NW! LOL.

[snowman21]

Dustings of snow for everyone!!!

[dendrite]

GFS AI a tick nw

[CT Valley Snowman]

The icon was a tick NW, especially as the storm developes off the mid Atlantic. Slightly better ridge out west. It's also a bit weaker at our lattitude with the precip a bit less expansive on the western side.  Still a solid miss.  

[NeonPeon]

ICON looked about the same or a little worse to me, and still nothing. 

[dryslot]

I think the 12z GS is going to be west of the 06z run.

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think the 12z GS is going to be west of the 06z run.

I’ll go SE

[NoCORH4L]

At this point, just gotta keep things from trending SE. That MegaSWFE in JAN didn't start tending north until there was only a couple days to go. We just don't know. 

[Kitz Craver]

I say it holds, mostly noise

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea its west of 6z but congrats richmond on blizzard. Lbsw.

[CoastalWx]

3'+ for DC. A LBSW special.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea its west of 6z but congrats richmond on blizzard. 

Started out that way, SLP was into NJ.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll go SE

SW

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

Started out that way, SLP was into NJ.

Yea then kicks east after occlusion. Ray’s favorite solution…

[dryslot]

Weaker too by about 7mb as it LBSW.

[dendrite]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

SW

Same diff

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3'+ for DC. A LBSW special.

Can’t wait for the forum to crash while I post cirrus obs

[mahk_webstah]

Let the north trend begin

[dendrite]

Still decent for the Cape/Islands

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Still great for sema.