Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 who can explain why most of the models are shifting east with totals all of a sudden - what is it being caused by ? I can't figure it out - could it be any mixing issues or dry slots ?Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Global are useless at this point Untrue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I like 12-18 now for nyc a foot on the ground in NYC is a great storm, and to be honest any more than that is just crippling and over burdensome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VlinderF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady white rain in the UES. Not looking at models; just enjoying the ride for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I’m dooming over the rain but from what you guys said won’t be a big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: North and west posters are on the bubble but that’s to be expected. This is largely a coastal event for maximum impacts The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I am a tad surprised that JFK is still rain...the soundings do not show anything close to a deep enough layer through 1500 feet for that but should be all snow by 19Z at latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I am a couple miles south of you still liquid as of 11:12 am Extremely wet snow though. Will be awhile before it sticks to ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Only the Globals are doing this and they usually do this right as the storm starts. Here's a nice new snow map. Maybe it can help people off the ledge. . It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see Are they riding the nbm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The NAM did cut back too but in fairness anyone who’s followed it for years knew it would lol. Yes to 2.2 inches of QPF for nyc lol - I think 1.4-2 inches of QPF is a pretty safe bet for the area. Banding and ratios will determine the best spots. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Mixing with snow in western Monmouth in Millstone according to my friend who moved there from by me literally to see more snow than the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, winterwx21 said: It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15. we've seen this movie before; at least i have. so we go from historic to just a snow storm. what can you do, these models were spitting out the end of the world last night. there is an upper limit to snow here, and we should always keep that in mind, how rare 2 foot plus really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 “Historic” was the kiss of death. However, It would have been a lot more painful if this was the only opportunity for snow this winter. Mother Nature is one fickle “bleep”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Untrue Its true Mesos can pinpoint banding and small details this close unlike the globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 i think 10-15 for the city with up to 20 down by the jersey shore and on LI, with overall ratios close to 10:1 or a little lower. could be wrong. enjoy the show i’m watching from afar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, NYER72 said: a foot on the ground in NYC is a great storm, and to be honest any more than that is just crippling and over burdensome yes it is. especially when that is the expectation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Anyone seeing rain now is in the best spot for this storm lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 looking forward to seeing some sick drift photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see No one I95 or south and east is seeing less than 10 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Anyone seeing rain now is in the best spot for this storm lol Hahahaha thank you I have a lot of anxiety at the moment lololol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its true Mesos can pinpoint banding and small details this close unlike the globals. If every global goes east with the track you can't just ignore it. They're seeing something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: No one I95 or south and east is seeing less than 10 inches. I’m talking about areas further north and west that are under 18-25” warnings. Said nothing about south and east if 95 lol 33 - light snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 People here really live and die by model outputs lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Seeing this, I'm not concerned yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The models with the huge totals had the low further north than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Anyone have recommendations for radar sites to use to track the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: “Historic” was the kiss of death. However, It would have been a lot more painful if this was the only opportunity for snow this winter. Mother Nature is one fickle “bleep”. The main part of the storm hasn’t even happened yet..jeeze people become so negative!! This will be historic for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 It has begun, snow has commenced. Don't really care about the models now, just going to watch this unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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