allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Crazy to see when the non US models have a 10 to 14 inch storm, someone is going to have an epic bust come tomorrow afternoon For the 1000% time the non us models are GLOBALS!! Stop using them at this point. Also they are way to dry in this situation, imagine a sub 970 at the benchmark and only 1” QPF gimme a break! Also the globals move the storm along faster as opposed to the mesos! Seriously just sit back and watch this beast unfold this afternoon, you and @snowman19 must be from the same mold! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, RKO36 said: It has begun. Stepped out of Shop Rite at 6AM to a light rain/frozen rain. You work at a ShopRite? Or was one of the first shoppers this morning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Steady light snow. Already sticking to roads. Not yet sticking on Rt. 23 in Stockholm though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Models picking up on the insane western cutoff ala boxing day. It'll be there but the caveat is an inverted trough will be in place which could enhance totals on the western flank and lead to much less sharper cutoffs than we'd normally see. In addition I expect the strongest banding to be NW of where models have them as is almost always thr case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, nycsnow said: I’m guessing that looks spot on to what we want to see am I correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’m guessing that looks spot on to what we want to see am I correct? Yea matches most models so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Sref coming in less amped so a little bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Not a fan of obs threads but it’s find whatever everyone wants to do… but problem is there will B a lot of jumping back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, nycsnow said: Sref coming in less amped so a little bit east You have to expect the models to come back down to earth a bit. After those insane runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, allgame830 said: For the 1000% time the non us models are GLOBALS!! Stop using them at this point. Also they are way to dry in this situation, imagine a sub 970 at the benchmark and only 1” QPF gimme a break! Also the globals move the storm along faster as opposed to the mesos! Seriously just sit back and watch this beast unfold this afternoon, you and @snowman19 must be from the same mold! The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 43 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Can’t remember the last time I read this from the NWS for our area Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 509 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Potentially historic winter storm to impact the region through Monday. Confidence is high for very heavy, crippling snowfall to impact the area. Areas of blizzard conditions likely. To be fair, accuweather and WINS are sticking to a foot “give or take an inch” in the city and more on Long Island. A foot is not scary to people; we just had a foot… maybe they expect we lose a lot to rain… it is raining now in nj and a high of 38 coming. But there’s a disconnect. More people are gonna hear that than read the news. Both can’t be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Sref coming in less amped so a little bit east That’s still textbook right there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RKO36 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 19 minutes ago, allgame830 said: You work at a ShopRite? Or was one of the first shoppers this morning lol 24 hour Shop Rite in Old Bridge, NJ. I wasn't going to shop yesterday and knew I had to get in early today before it gets super busy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, snowman19 said: The RGEM is not a global model I’m aware and you will b wrong! 12” is the floor here. Bye for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, RKO36 said: 24 hour Shop Rite in Old Bridge, NJ. I wasn't going to shop yesterday and knew I had to get in early today before it gets super busy again. Gotcha! Only asked bc I used to work at one in Westchester county NY like 5 miles from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’m aware and you will b wrong! 12” is the floor here. Bye for now HRDPS doesn’t even agree with the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’m aware and you will b wrong! 12” is the floor here. Bye for now He's trolling don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run We still get a foot and tour aka 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The RGEM is not a global model and the new SREF has started to back off. A red flag that the NAM is way too amped and will back down on the 12z run Send us a twitter post from October with the raging La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 sref is still great for almost everyone, only really impacted the western cutoff, which was wild to begin with had double digits way upstate lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Snowing here in the bronx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 32F here with a snow/rain mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: We still get a foot and tour aka Send us a twitter post from October with the raging La Niña. Where did I say NYC isn’t getting a foot? The RGEM has a foot in the city. As far as what the NAM has been selling? Throw it in the trash, it’s going to start backing down and playing catch up. There’s a reason why the NAM/SREF are getting retired this year and it’s not because it’s good. The only thing it’s good for is warm nose events and that’s it. This is a classic NAM over amp and it’s going to bust horribly IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up Not by much, this is early stuff. The NWS said things get going later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up Nah it won’t it’ll changeover quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 RADAR https://radar.weather.gov/region/northeast/standard Interactive NYC Point Forecast: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.7142&lon=-74.0059 NWS Central Park, NYC observations https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc NWS La Guardia Airport New York, La Guardia Airport NWS JFK, NYC International Airport https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KJFK Regional Roundup NYCRWROKX Live view of NYC https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up Ah here we go, expecting a lot of these posts even when accumulating snow for some areas isn’t forecast until late afternoon/evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: Rain in Brooklyn. This will impact snow totals if rain keeps up It really shouldn’t. No accumulations forecasted till afternoon and not much till very late afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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