Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Last 3 days of gfs runs Imagine it's wrong lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Doubt there will be any school on Monday. remote learning school.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Here's the weenie map The nam was still snowing here lmao 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My P&C forecast is 12-20 lmao. LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, messier77 said: Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ? Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (As posted on PHL thread) The very rapid pressure falls (especially if GFS most accurate) off the NJ coast will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, as winds always overperform standard gradient metrics when pressure is falling very rapidly. This will probably apply to Long Island as well. Some parts of central NJ could easily see over 30 inches of snow. There could be bands of 20-25 inch accumulations further north over metro NYC and Long Island also. Drifting will be severe due to the wind speeds. In open areas there could be 4-6 ft drifts near the end of the event. (would say 6-8 ft in parts of NJ). This is all of course dependent on GFS verifying as to details of the bomb cyclone formation. Would cut most of this down by one third or more if there is a weaker bomb further from NJ to LI coasts. It has to be said, this is shaping up to be a potentially very dangerous situation, fortunately the worst conditions may be Sunday night and travel may become impossible by Monday morning which at least will prevent a lot of people from getting into dangerous situations, they will be trapped at home and probably digging out most of Tuesday. Temperatures won't be brutally cold but with these wind speeds, wind chills will be a factor. I think temps will stay fairly close to 30F through most of the snowfall period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 No love for the 6z UKIE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 my point and click for sayreville is 11-22 total.. Dani beckstrom on Channel 7 still had the 8-12 map up from last night...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro about 50-100 miles west of 00z 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6z euro is amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 That's a sigh of relief that the euro looks a bit better then it's 0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 AI was unchanged 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just wild to think of where we were at and what the models were showing ( besides the GFS ) 48 hours ago and where we are right now 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: my point and click for sayreville is 11-22 total.. Dani beckstrom on Channel 7 still had the 8-12 map up from last night...smh accuweather forecasts are the worst and their even worse on the radio side where they have 3-6 inches as of last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 54 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling. Thanks, I’m hoping that they’ll be willing to land in light snow. As for making it back to NJ if we land, I guess I’ll leave my life in the hands of the Uber gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Just wild to think of where we were at and what the models were showing ( besides the GFS ) 48 hours ago and where we are right now I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go. I honestly think everyone was except the Gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Mail Man said: I was about to give up Thursday afternoon but the GFS refused to let it go. never give up good morning, i see some of my posts were deleted. I think this is just a sign that the westerly trend is over and the models will correct back to around where the GFS is. Remember all models trended towards the GFS yesterday 80% models had nothing. We will see by tomorrow but I honestly still think the euro is the most overrated model there is, icon may be better at this point! We'll see but to me it just looks like the west trend is over and they'll just wobble back and forth between GFS and maybe Euro AI solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NsWx516 said: I honestly think everyone was except the Gfs Agreed I think only Anthony and Weathergeek might have been the only 2 humans to want that to continue - I told my son " I just wish the one weather model that is holding out will cave so I can get some sleep and just end this slow pain " 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I see Upton has blessed the title of this thread. Excellent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 we pretty much have consensus here, i think it's between nam euro and gfs at this point it's safe to say 10-20 inches are a lock NYC and east, with blizzard winds blowing and drifting definitely a concern! What happens west of Bergen county is still in question and will be ironed out today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: we pretty much have consensus here, i think it's between nam euro and gfs at this point it's safe to say 10-20 inches are a lock NYC and east, with blizzard winds blowing and drifting definitely a concern! What happens west of Bergen county is still in question and will be ironed out today! 18-24 NYC and west with 24+ NYC and east is my call...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6z AI EPS is a banger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I like the model blend idea of a Monmouth and Ocean County NJ to Suffolk County jackpot going potentially 18”+ in those areas. The storm track near or just east of the 40/70 benchmark usually favors this scenario. Most other areas are looking like a solid 12”+. The blizzard conditions will make measurement a challenge and there will be the best drifting potential in years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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