MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Rgem is snowier than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, MJO812 said: I think a good starting point is 6-12. I was gonna say 8-12 but that works too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rjay said: Don't get carried away. The euro shows much less, particularly in western areas. Was talking in general not imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 421 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings have been issued for Long Island, New York City, and the Connecticut coast. Winter storm warnings have been issued for interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday into Monday. Blizzard conditions are expected along the coast with near-blizzard conditions across interior southern Connecticut, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northeast New Jersey Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h, tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday morning. This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter, will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time. Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area, highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS, and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the higher totals are not out of the realm possibility. Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 55 minutes ago, TriPol said: There was talk of closing this thread earlier in the week because the chances were so small that anything would come of it. Now Atlantic City could get... 4 feet of snow. If we get blasted, this thread should be archived. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Gfs and gfs AI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Gfs took a step towards the cmc imo Images are: 0z gfs vs 6z gfs (gif) 6z gfs vs 0z Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GFS not backing down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 968 low on the gfs Jeez 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Just now, MJO812 said: 968 low on the gfs Jeez Yup big hit still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 968 low on the gfs Jeez I was just going to post this, Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NsWx516 said: I was just going to post this, Wow! 6z gfs has more snow in NYC than 0z 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Last 3 days of gfs runs Imagine it's wrong lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Doubt there will be any school on Monday. remote learning school.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Here's the weenie map The nam was still snowing here lmao 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My P&C forecast is 12-20 lmao. LFG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, messier77 said: Don’t really have the internet bandwidth to view model runs here, but does it still look like 1:40pm landing at JFK is doable plus 4-5pm driving arrival in central NJ? Do able but it will be snowing at that point. And even landing at 1:40pm you’ll have snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (As posted on PHL thread) The very rapid pressure falls (especially if GFS most accurate) off the NJ coast will result in wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, as winds always overperform standard gradient metrics when pressure is falling very rapidly. This will probably apply to Long Island as well. Some parts of central NJ could easily see over 30 inches of snow. There could be bands of 20-25 inch accumulations further north over metro NYC and Long Island also. Drifting will be severe due to the wind speeds. In open areas there could be 4-6 ft drifts near the end of the event. (would say 6-8 ft in parts of NJ). This is all of course dependent on GFS verifying as to details of the bomb cyclone formation. Would cut most of this down by one third or more if there is a weaker bomb further from NJ to LI coasts. It has to be said, this is shaping up to be a potentially very dangerous situation, fortunately the worst conditions may be Sunday night and travel may become impossible by Monday morning which at least will prevent a lot of people from getting into dangerous situations, they will be trapped at home and probably digging out most of Tuesday. Temperatures won't be brutally cold but with these wind speeds, wind chills will be a factor. I think temps will stay fairly close to 30F through most of the snowfall period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 No love for the 6z UKIE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 my point and click for sayreville is 11-22 total.. Dani beckstrom on Channel 7 still had the 8-12 map up from last night...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro about 50-100 miles west of 00z 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6z euro is amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 That's a sigh of relief that the euro looks a bit better then it's 0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 AI was unchanged 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just wild to think of where we were at and what the models were showing ( besides the GFS ) 48 hours ago and where we are right now 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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