E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

Where could that front be at 11pm?

[LVLion77]

I would’ve thought there would be a more active radar presentation at this point, but we shall see. It’s interesting that there’s nothing along the actual front.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

[JTA66]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

If they interrupt General Hospital for the stupid weather, I'm gonna throw a hissy fit like none other!!

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

yeah the hype for today has been unbelievable, you'd think the 1974 super outbreak was happening... I have family scattered all around the east coast and all of them have been asking me what's going on with the tornado outbreak. I understand preparing the public to be storm aware but closing schools and stuff is so silly...

[BBasile]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

I've been getting asked all day about it at work.  It's all people have been talking about.  I'm surprised everyone is that in tune.  

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

Never happened when I was in school...being let out early due to severe weather warnings. Kids will probably go home and their house gets steam-rolled when they probably should have stayed in school.

67F/DP 62F

[enpawx_observer]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

Where is the instability coming from for this? Feels like it will be a nothing burger once it hits the Lehigh Valley 

There is a ton of low level shear, enough to pop a tornado in any of these storms or come down to the surface with rain as straight line gusts.

If I remember correctly the Ida tornado outbreak was a high shear/low CAPE setup and that wreaked havoc on our area.

[mattinpa]

I understand why they issued the watches - still think it was right. I’m glad because I don’t like severe weather. What exactly went wrong today though?

[MGorse]

1 hour ago, enpawx_observer said:

There is a ton of low level shear, enough to pop a tornado in any of these storms or come down to the surface with rain as straight line gusts.

If I remember correctly the Ida tornado outbreak was a high shear/low CAPE setup and that wreaked havoc on our area.

This is not a tropical system setup. Big difference. 

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I understand why they issued the watches - still think it was right. I’m glad because I don’t like severe weather. What exactly went wrong today though?

Yup the tornado watches issued due to the strong shear profiles. The issue is all of the showers messing with the instability and thermal profiles in the lower levels. 

[MGorse]

The tornado watch probably should not have included the coastal counties due to flow off the cold ocean. Along the NJ Shore it is currently only in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

[mattinpa]

8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Yup the tornado watches issued due to the strong shear profiles. The issue is all of the showers messing with the instability and thermal profiles in the lower levels. 

Thanks for the excellent answer and thank you and the rest of the NWS for keeping an eye on things. 

[Birds~69]

Meh...showers.

65F

[LVLion77]

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

[MGorse]

14 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

The flow is southerly and not easterly. 

[ChescoWx]

14 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

Great to see no severe so far !! Still need to watch that line with the front later this evening!

[RedSky]

This didn't work out because its not trash day

Thought I read that somewhere in the weenie handbook

 

[ChescoWx]

0.68" of rain so far today may catch up to normal precip for the year by the end of this event!

[The Iceman]

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This didn't work out because its not trash day

Thought I read that somewhere in the weenie handbook

 

It is for me

[JTA66]

My trash pick up was today, so cans went to the curb last night. They’re back by the garage now, so dodged that bullet.

Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s straight-line wind damage as the front comes through later tonight.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

The tornado watch probably should not have included the coastal counties due to flow off the cold ocean. Along the NJ Shore it is currently only in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Poof all tornado watches dropped you could tell being outside it’s pretty stable out there along the surface.  Thank the cold ocean temps. 

[The Iceman]

7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I would be surprised if we see widespread severe now. The stuff from last night is beginning to re intensify and is likely going to come into our area early this afternoon but there just isn't going to be instability in place. The best dynamics are in place after that but this afternoon stuff is going to sap all the instability and moisture. Maybe some gusty winds still with the front passing through but it continues to look less and less interesting here. Will still be a significant temp drop at least. 

Hey SPC if you’re looking to replace the jabroni’s that blew it today, I’m available 

 

anyway getting another soaking rain at the very least, most of the area should finish over an inch qpf. This month has delivered on the moisture so far.

[LVLion77]

The flow is southerly and not easterly. 

I understand that, but it was an Easterly flow until the early morning hours. I have observed often in the past as a lifelong weather weenie that unless flow turns solidly from the sw in these situations, we never get the instability needed for severe weather. The ocean is too cold this time of the year and that influence lingers in these situations and the forecast rarely takes that into account.

[MGorse]

1 minute ago, LVLion77 said:

I understand that, but it was an Easterly flow until the early morning hours. I have observed often in the past as a lifelong weather weenie that unless flow turns solidly from the sw in these situations, we never get the instability needed for severe weather. The ocean is too cold this time of the year and that influence lingers in these situations and the forecast rarely takes that into account.

It is not just the wind direction that is a factor. All day the flow was southerly and it still is. A very messy warm sector with low cloud cover and showers today is what tempered the severe weather risk. 
 

Powerful cold front moves through later this evening and that should be accompanied by a low-topped line. That could still tap into the strong wind field to produce areas of damaging winds. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Was there severe weather anywhere in the state? This was being billed as the largest most severe threat in many years.

[MGorse]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was there severe weather anywhere in the state? This was being billed as the largest most severe threat in many years.

There have been some wind damage reports mainly in the York and Harrisburg areas so far. 
 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

 

[Birds~69]

59 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Great to see no severe so far !! Still need to watch that line with the front later this evening!

I wanted Mother Nature to rearrange the neighborhood so a great disappointment here. 

0-2 so far (in the past week) w/severe weather unless some kick-ass winds come through w/the front later tonight...

63F/light rain

*Thank goodness the children were let of school early. Imagine the carnage, don't even want to think about it...

 

 

[BBasile]

Slight/enhanced risk with 75 kt 850 winds = light rain and a mild surface breeze?  I guess shit happens sometimes.  Maybe the squall tonight will deliver something?  

[ChescoWx]

The HRRR with sleet and snow accumulation later tonight