E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

Where could that front be at 11pm?

[LVLion77]

I would’ve thought there would be a more active radar presentation at this point, but we shall see. It’s interesting that there’s nothing along the actual front.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

[JTA66]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

If they interrupt General Hospital for the stupid weather, I'm gonna throw a hissy fit like none other!!

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

yeah the hype for today has been unbelievable, you'd think the 1974 super outbreak was happening... I have family scattered all around the east coast and all of them have been asking me what's going on with the tornado outbreak. I understand preparing the public to be storm aware but closing schools and stuff is so silly...

[BBasile]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

I've been getting asked all day about it at work.  It's all people have been talking about.  I'm surprised everyone is that in tune.  

[Birds~69]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have friends and in SE  Bucks and Delco family blowing up my phone asking about these tornadoes and dire severe warnings with schools letting out early. Apparently the local news is breaking in to TV shows about it. Oh brother....

Never happened when I was in school...being let out early due to severe weather warnings. Kids will probably go home and their house gets steam-rolled when they probably should have stayed in school.

67F/DP 62F

[enpawx_observer]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

Where is the instability coming from for this? Feels like it will be a nothing burger once it hits the Lehigh Valley 

There is a ton of low level shear, enough to pop a tornado in any of these storms or come down to the surface with rain as straight line gusts.

If I remember correctly the Ida tornado outbreak was a high shear/low CAPE setup and that wreaked havoc on our area.

[mattinpa]

I understand why they issued the watches - still think it was right. I’m glad because I don’t like severe weather. What exactly went wrong today though?

[MGorse]

1 hour ago, enpawx_observer said:

There is a ton of low level shear, enough to pop a tornado in any of these storms or come down to the surface with rain as straight line gusts.

If I remember correctly the Ida tornado outbreak was a high shear/low CAPE setup and that wreaked havoc on our area.

This is not a tropical system setup. Big difference. 

[MGorse]

3 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

I understand why they issued the watches - still think it was right. I’m glad because I don’t like severe weather. What exactly went wrong today though?

Yup the tornado watches issued due to the strong shear profiles. The issue is all of the showers messing with the instability and thermal profiles in the lower levels. 

[MGorse]

The tornado watch probably should not have included the coastal counties due to flow off the cold ocean. Along the NJ Shore it is currently only in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

[mattinpa]

8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

Yup the tornado watches issued due to the strong shear profiles. The issue is all of the showers messing with the instability and thermal profiles in the lower levels. 

Thanks for the excellent answer and thank you and the rest of the NWS for keeping an eye on things. 

[Birds~69]

Meh...showers.

65F

[LVLion77]

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

[MGorse]

14 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

The flow is southerly and not easterly. 

[ChescoWx]

14 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I mentioned last night that often in March and April these dire severe forecast are busts. They do not take into account the cold easterly flows that precede the warm front, and unless you turn solidly SW after the front passes to clear out all that ocean influence you end up with a bust. Well, the bust happened yet again, which is good as nobody wants tornadoes wreaking havoc.

Great to see no severe so far !! Still need to watch that line with the front later this evening!

[RedSky]

This didn't work out because its not trash day

Thought I read that somewhere in the weenie handbook

 

[ChescoWx]

0.68" of rain so far today may catch up to normal precip for the year by the end of this event!

[The Iceman]

13 minutes ago, RedSky said:

This didn't work out because its not trash day

Thought I read that somewhere in the weenie handbook

 

It is for me