2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

I guess..there’s not much good there for us. Uk is a fair bit from where we’d want it

It's a step in the right direction, which seems to be the case on all modeling so far today. Some have made substantial changes with others only minor, but they all seem to be in the right direction. If we keep going ghru the day and night, we may just have to get WxUSAF to crawl out of bed and change the thread title to PDIII! lol 

[ChillinIt]

Both 12z WRFs are hits

 

[DDweatherman]

Noise differences up top on the gfs at h5 in the wrong direction made for a step back a bit. 

[DDweatherman]

Put my ji hat on to say the overnight and morning runs will be just enough of a COC tease to then crush souls when the rgem is closest to right or the euro/AI abandons us like an orphan at 1230. 

[Paleocene]

GFS good for PA folks. And north of i70 too I suppose 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

GFS good for PA folks. And north of i70 too I suppose 

Im not mad at it out here in the sticks

[psuhoffman]

As long as NWS doesn’t issue any advisories and downplays it we are good!  Let’s reverse psychology this into a snowstorm. 

[Paleocene]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Im not mad at it out here in the sticks

Zoomed in version. Less aggressive than 6z was. Believable but everyone is gonna be sweating thermals. Time period is late afternoon into evening tomorrow so sun angle won't cook as much

 

[mitchnick]

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help. 

[paxpatriot]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Snow-cover should aid in surface temps. Not by much but anything will help. 

We’ll see how much today’s torch leaves us by tomorrow.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

We’ll see how much today’s torch leaves us by tomorrow.

Need clouds to start arriving by 5:50-6am tomorrow. 

[TSSN+]

Ukmet says enjoy your few sprinkles. The difference between these models 24hrs out is pathetic 

[DDweatherman]

Euro to put this to bed in t minus 30 minutes. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Euro to put this to bed in t minus 30 minutes. 

I'm still waiting on my 15" the euro game me 24 hours before the last storm.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I'm still waiting on my 15" the euro game me 24 hours before the last storm.

Don’t remind me, we choked that one away bleeding the mid levels the last 24 hours. 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Euro to put this to bed in t minus 30 minutes. 

Euro has been all over the place over the last week. It's terrible too.

[CAPE]

The Blend

[RevWarReenactor]

Lol gfs has me getting 4 inches of snow. There is absolutely no question in my mind it’s wrong and that’s rain or at best white rain. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Lol gfs has me getting 4 inches of snow. There is absolutely no question in my mind it’s wrong and that’s rain or at best white rain. 

Wow thanks for the analysis 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Lol gfs has me getting 4 inches of snow. There is absolutely no question in my mind it’s wrong and that’s rain or at best white rain. 

You better hope it doesn’t snow anywhere in this forum. 

[stormtracker]

[stormtracker]

My service to the forum. 

[bncho]

Euro AI

[Steckstacks]

My apologies for the stupid question, I’m trying to learn. How do we know where the rain/snow line is on these maps?


.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Steckstacks said:

My apologies for the stupid question, I’m trying to learn. How do we know where the rain/snow line is on these maps?


.

Usually it'd be where the 0c line is for 850s and/or where the 540 line sets up, but there's a pesky warm nose at 925mb that keeps all that precip mainly rain, unless you around the M/D line

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Steckstacks said:

My apologies for the stupid question, I’m trying to learn. How do we know where the rain/snow line is on these maps?


.

Usually where the 0 line is, but not always, especially in this case where it’s marginal

[NorthArlington101]

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Few more ticks towards the gfs and Nam. Hmm. 0z will be crucial 

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

My service to the forum. 

we never have dark green over us...like ever

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

we never have dark green over us...like ever

Wait next year, we'll have some of those yellows and reds, even those purples