2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

53 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy 

All I do is look at 72-73,82-83,97-98,15-16 and say yea they were warm..its not hard to figure out..Also 2 if those years had a massive blizzard..So a crazy,insane, earth shattering nino does not mean it cant snow.And we've had snowless winters in La Nina's and neutral winters anyway, so there are other factors.

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns.

We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events

This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts.

With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well.

The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.  But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015.

2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. 

The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. 

During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern.

Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing.

19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. 

So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. 

Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the  1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. 

My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter. 
 

 

By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter? Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?

[LakePaste25]

25 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

All I do is look at 72-73,82-83,97-98,15-16 and say yea they were warm..its not hard to figure out..Also 2 if those years had a massive blizzard..So a crazy,insane, earth shattering nino does not mean it cant snow.And we've had snowless winters in La Nina's and neutral winters anyway, so there are other factors.

I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier. 

[Keith Central PA]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier. 

There we go ,couldnt agree more

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October. 

Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember I pointed this out last spring and got roasted for it.

I’m not sure why you got roasted for that.  Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

 

 

[George001]

Just now, bluewave said:

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

 

 

Yeah, this El Niño is developing like a stronger version of the 97-98 super Nino. 

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

 

 

Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

 

 

The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree. 

 

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, chubbs said:

Plenty of ocean heat to be re-distributed, as ocean heat content increased at a rapid pace in the first quarter. The ocean as a whole is warming much faster now vs 97/98.

It’s as if we are starting to see some of the higher end El Niños that weren’t forecast to repeat only a few years apart until later in this century.  But the strength of the La Ninas hasn’t been really increasing. So this goes to show how much work we need to do on more accurate climate modeling. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.
 

 
 Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6:


8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6:

 

Actual 2m for winter 25-6:

 

So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.

*Edited for typo

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree. 

 

The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.

[LakePaste25]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.

This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. 

If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 
 Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6:


8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6:

 

Actual 2m for winter 25-6:

 

So, these 2 were much too warm in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.

*Edited for typo

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.

So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.

I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/

Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East

Verification in (C)

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. 

If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline. 

Who said anything about tropical convection?  My reply was strictly in regard to how the forecast you posted compared to April 1998. 

[MarcmmKU]

18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its absolutely gorgeous. The past 2 winters here were nearly all powder. Here's the thing...powder is my absolute favorite. Its beautiful and last winter seemingly every night the snow glistened like diamonds. But I realized that even though I was getting my favorite powder, I missed a good wet snow. 

The winter of 2022-23 was the last time we had lots of paste snow. Below are 3 different 2023 snowstorms.

Yup, even down here in the swampy hot coastal plain suburbs of NYC the snow last winter was nearly all blower powder. Very odd for us. Only the mid december storm was wet. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS.

So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West.

I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/

Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East

Verification in (C)

 I realize ‘25-6 DJF was mild overall in the CONUS on a geographic basis. I’m not disputing that. But I think you’re being a bit too harsh on model performance for 25-6.

 The winter averaged 37.1F, which was 3.1F warmer than the Euro’s climo base of 1993-2016 and 3.0F warmer than the CFSv2’s climo base of 1991-2020. The forecasted mean anomaly for both the 8/1/25 Euro and the mid-July ‘25 avg CFSv2 was ~+2F for the CONUS on a geog. area basis or ~36F. This was actually a bit warmer than the 35.6 of 1994-5. Thus, the models were only ~1F too warm on a geog. area basis.

 Here are the warmest CONUS winters since 1895-6 (excluding 2025-6):

37.5 in 2023-4

36.8 in 2015-6

36.5 in 1999-00

36.4 in 1991-2

36.3 in 2011-2

36.3 in 1998-9

36.0 in 1999-00

 
 Thus, with their ~36F progged mean, these 2 models were essentially predicting about the 7th-8th warmest CONUS winter since 1895-6. It came out 2nd. I think that’s pretty darn good.
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026

[cmillzz]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

Seems delusional to think otherwise at this point tbh.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Temps and snowfall aside for a second, my beef is this utter delusional weenie crap that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow magically overwhelm a historic ++ENSO is by far and away the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life, hands down. Pure stupidity, fantasy and Land of Make Believe garbage. It completely defies the laws of physics and reality 

If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Again to reiterate, a Winter east vs west-based El Nino

Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2?

 However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chuck. So, temps are clearly colder with W vs E based. Is some of this because the strongest El Niño winters tend to have warmer 1+2?

 However, with regard to wintry precip, itself, the SE appears to have done a bit better with C based (3.4 warmest) than W based (4 warmest) if I’m recalling my research correctly. 

It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. 

I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If anything, -PDO would make it warmer and drier....that isn't a driver of cold in the NE.

Yeah -PDO is mostly counter-El Nino. Amazing the consistency in -PNA we are still seeing. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.

 

 

Yea, but there is more warmer water further west than that year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. 

I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though. 

It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It absolutely does in a sense because good luck keeping the warmth out of the eastern ENSO region in an event of this magnitude.

It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

If you put your heat in your living room on 80 degrees, the living room may warm to 75 and the kitchen 70. If you put your heat in the living room on 90 degrees, the living room may warm to 85 and the kitchen 70. lol Everyone thinks the kitchen goes to 80 degrees. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things. 

You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go.

2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You aren't getting what I'm saying. We aren't going to get an event that powerful that doesn't leak into the east. Find an example.....I'll give you a lifetime...go.

2009 is the closest, but not to that magnitude.

Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 

02-03 was probably the 2nd strongest Modoki. My favorite Winter all time! Yeah it does go hand-in-hand strength and where it's usually based, that's because there are usually much cooler waters further east, much more room to warm in a stable system.