2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Cold 500mb lows spinning out over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days. In my opinion, until we break the Arctic Ice melt record from 2012, we are going to be in decadal -PDO. July has also been super wet here in this post-2017, 60-90N -SLP pattern. It will be very interesting to see what the Arctic pattern is next Summer after the Super Nino warms global temps, and the Solar Cycle wanes. 

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hell Yeah! Let's go set us a 300,000 year record with this Nino!

I want to get so much rain in Texas! I want moisture feeds straight from the Equator and storm systems to just stall over south central Texas for days and days and days and days!

I want a truly BROBDINGNAGIAN amount of rain from this thru June 2027!

July has been a really wet month since 2017, so it might have less to do with the El Nino and more to do with the pattern. We'll find out after this month I think. 

[GaWx]

45 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

 

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The CFS has been hinting at this possibility based on its very sharp record-paced cooling of 3.4 from Dec to Mar.

CFS has a huge trend bias. I would like to see cooler subsurface waters start to appear. 

It significantly precedes. I remember seeing an image of Dec 1972 where the whole subsurface was extremely cold during Super Nino. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Makes sense. For about 50 years (before 2015-16), many of the strongest el ninos were followed by the strongest la ninas:

1972-73 super el nino -> 1973-76 la nina (with 1973-74 and 1975-76 being strong la ninas)

1982-83 super el nino -> 1983-85 la nina

1986-88 strong el nino -> 1988-89 strong la nina

1997-98 super el nino -> 1998-2001 la nina (with 1998-2000 being a strong la nina)

2009-10 strong el nino -> 2010-12 la nina (with 2010-11 being a strong la nina)

[mitchnick]

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino. 

[mitchnick]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino. 

This is December.  Loop through it. They're not bad thanks to lower heights.

Edit: NNE is obviously warmer as in most moderate or strong Niños 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

2nd Edit: Here's the link to 850 temps starting December 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Important to note that this El Niño event will remove a lot of heat from the oceans (and into the atmosphere) if it materializes as record-breaking. This is one of the reasons why El Nino doesn’t preclude a strong La Niña, and ENSO itself acts more like a damped nonlinear recharge oscillator. 

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas.

You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998.  This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño.

The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. 

The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019.

Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon.

So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s? 
 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas.

You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998.  This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño.

The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. 

The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019.

Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon.

So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s? 
 

Plenty of ocean heat to be re-distributed, as ocean heat content increased at a rapid pace in the first quarter. The ocean as a whole is warming much faster now vs 97/98.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'll say this: Cfs2 continues to advertise a decent with pattern in the east this winter, including the illusive, albeit displaced at times, Aleutian Low. This is the link starting December. Loop through it and you'll see what I mean.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026071818&fh=5

P.s. April looks near perfect too! 

We will all take this.  Yes this will be a strong El Nino but its way too early to say what this upcoming winter will be like. 

How will the NAO, AO , PNA and EPO be ? MJO ? Alot of factors. 

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

@donsutherland1

 

It's on course to become a truly monstrous historic event. Its impacts will be far-reaching and probably very severe.